Análisis de las funciones de importación y exportación de México (1980-2000)

Díaz, Daniel G. Garcés

doi:10.20430/ete.v75i297.393

Cited by 9 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…First, when dealing with the first difference of this particular variable (i.e., when dealing with

Δ X_{t}

), the breakpoint ADF test strongly rejects the unit root hypothesis (i.e., the rejection occurs at the 1% significance level), whereas the KPSS test barely rejects the stationarity hypothesis (i.e., the rejection takes place only at the 10% level). Moreover, previous empirical evidence for the Mexican case indicates that the different types of exports are I(1) in levels (Garcés, ). Lastly, in the case of FDI test results are consistent in indicating that this variable is I(0) in levels.…”

Section: The Model and The Data Setmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…Under the traditional demand approach, export volumes are determined by the real exchange rate and external demand, as measured by the level of economic activity abroad or by the physical quantity of goods imported by the nation's key trading partners. Garcés (), Reinhart () and Senhadji and Montenegro (), inter alia, make use of this approach to estimate income and price elasticities of exports in developing economies, concluding that: (i) exports are more responsive to economic activity in the country's major trading partners than to changes in relative prices; and (ii) exchange rate depreciation raises exports by lowering their foreign‐currency price. However, the increasing role of processing trade and the high import content of manufacturing exports make it necessary to consider that currency depreciation may actually discourage exports through a higher domestic‐currency price of imported intermediate inputs, not to mention imported capital stock and technology.…”

Section: Previous Econometric Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The impact of the yuan‐dollar exchange rate on Mexican manufacturing exports to theUS: A cointegration approach

Cuevas

2017

World Economy

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This paper makes use of three econometric methods and three time intervals to evaluate the long‐term effects of several key variables on Mexican manufacturing exports to the US. The evidence across econometric techniques and sample periods systematically indicates that: (i) a real depreciation of the yuan‐dollar exchange rate reduces Mexican manufacturing exports by lowering the price of Chinese goods in the US market; (ii) a depreciation of the peso‐dollar real exchange rate generates a strong supply‐side effect due to the high import content of Mexican manufacturing exports, which ultimately leads to lower (rather than higher) sales in the US; and (iii) external demand and labour productivity are positively related to manufacturing exports, whereas real wages are negatively related. Therefore, a falling external demand for Mexican manufacturing products or a real depreciation of the Chinese currency could, to some extent, be offset by increasing labour productivity faster than wages. These findings reflect two fundamental problems of the Mexican economy: (i) low investment in high‐quality formal instruction and proper training programs, which gives rise to severe bottleneck points for faster labour productivity growth and (ii) excessive reliance of the export‐oriented manufacturing industry on foreign suppliers of intermediate inputs.

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“…First, when dealing with the first difference of this particular variable (i.e., when dealing with

Δ X_{t}

Section: The Model and The Data Setmentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Previous Econometric Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of the yuan‐dollar exchange rate on Mexican manufacturing exports to theUS: A cointegration approach

Cuevas

2017

World Economy

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“…External demand is usually measured by the level of economic activity abroad or by the total amount of imports from the nation's major trading partners. In the case of the developing economies, the evidence provided by Reinhart (1995), Senhadji and Montenegro (1999) and Garcés (2008) suggests that: (i) exports are more responsive to external demand than to changes in relative prices, and (ii) exchange rate depreciation raises exports by lowering their foreign-currency price. One caveat to this conclusion is the evidence that the greater importance of GVCs has significantly altered the relationship between real exchange rate movements and manufacturing exports (Swarnali, Appendino, and Ruta, 2017;Cheng et al, 2016).…”

Section: Previous Econometric Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mexico and China in the US manufacturing market: An empirical analysis

Ahumada

Villarreal²

2019

CyA

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<p>This paper conducts a disaggregated comparative analysis of China’s and Mexico’s export dynamism in the US manufacturing market over the period 1994-2015 and, against this backdrop, it estimates a panel data econometric model showing the impact of key variables on Mexico’s export performance across manufacturing subsectors of different technology categories. Export performance is measured in terms of import market shares in the US and numerous econometric issues are addressed to produce a plausible model. In addition to capturing some heterogeneity among different manufacturing subsectors, this study shows that: (i) a depreciation of the real exchange rate calculated for each subsector worsens (rather than improves) Mexico’s export performance, which is likely due not only to the high import content of Mexican manufacturing exports, but also to the increasing weight of the private sector’s external liabilities; (ii) a fall in domestic unit labor costs has a positive impact on Mexico’s export performance, which highlights the importance of raising labor productivity faster than wages; and (iii) a reduction in US unit labor costs deteriorates Mexico’s export performance. In this context, the empirical evidence leads to clear-cut policy recommendations to raise export performance and thus economic growth.</p>

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“…Entre ellos, se encuentran los de Galindo y Cardera (1999), Garcés (2008), Bahmani-Oskooee y Hegerty (2009), y Romero (2010).…”

Section: Revisión De Literaturaunclassified

La demanda de importaciones y exportaciones de México en la era del TLCAN. Un enfoque de cointegración

Cermeño

Ponce²

2016

El Trimestre

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RESUMENEste artículo busca caracterizar los flujos de comercio internacional de México durante el periodo de vigencia del Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte (TLCAN). Las ecuaciones de importaciones y exportaciones se basan en el modelo de bienes sustitutos imperfectos y son estimadas utilizando el enfoque de cointegración de Johansen, con datos mensuales para el periodo 1994-2014. De esta manera, se encuentra que todas las variables pueden describirse como procesos de tendencia estocástica y que existe una relación de cointegración para cada ecuación de comercio. En ambos casos, las elasticidades precio e ingreso de largo plazo estimadas son significativas y sus signos son consistentes con la teoría económica. En particular, ambos flujos de comercio son inelásticos respecto a los precios relativos, y parecen satisfacer la condición Marshall-Lerner. Por otra parte, las importaciones mexicanas son elásticas respecto al producto, lo cual es indicativo de la alta dependencia de insumos importados de la actividad económica mexicana. A diferencia de la literatura previa, se encuentra que las exportaciones son inelásticas respecto a la producción * Artículo recibido el 10 de abril de 2013 y aceptado el 9 de abril de 2015. Los autores agradecen los valiosos comentarios de un dictaminador anónimo de EL TRIMESTRE ECONÓMICO, pero asumen toda la responsabilidad por cualquier error que haya quedado en este artículo.

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Análisis de las funciones de importación y exportación de México (1980-2000)

Cited by 9 publications

References 12 publications

The impact of the yuan‐dollar exchange rate on Mexican manufacturing exports to theUS: A cointegration approach

The impact of the yuan‐dollar exchange rate on Mexican manufacturing exports to theUS: A cointegration approach

Mexico and China in the US manufacturing market: An empirical analysis

La demanda de importaciones y exportaciones de México en la era del TLCAN. Un enfoque de cointegración

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