Análise dos métodos de estimação para os parâmetros das distribuições de Gumbel e GEV em eventos de precipitações máximas na cidade de Cuiabá-MT

Alves, Alan Vitor Pinheiro; Santos, Giovanni Batista da Silva; Filho, Frederico Carlos Martins de Menezes; Sanches, Luciana

doi:10.5216/reec.v6i1.21635

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…There was no record of 1440-min-long (or longer) rainfall events in Mato Grosso State; however, there were only 7 records of 720-min-long rainfall events in the State. Alves et al (2013) conducted a study in Cuiabá County-MT and also found low frequency of long-term rainfall events: there were three 1440-min-long rainfall events and thirteen 720-min-long events in a 22-year dataset.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intensity-duration-frequency of maximum rainfall in Mato Grosso State

et al. 2020

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Intensive rainfall is an important meteorological variable that is of technical interest in hydraulic projects. This study therefore generated Intensity-Duration-Frequency equations (IDF) for 14 weather stations in Mato Grosso State, based on pluviograph analysis. Annual maximum rainfall data regarding 10-to-1440-minute long rainfall events were collected from digitized daily pluviographs. Data adherence to the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) was checked through the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test at a 20% significance level. Next, the maximum probable rainfall for return periods such as 2, 5, 10, 20, 30, 50 and 100 years was calculated and the IDF equations were adjusted. The performance of the IDF equations was evaluated based on mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), bias, Willmott's concordance index and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index (ENS). Adjusting the IDF equations was only possible for rainfall durations ranging from 10 to 360 min at each station due to the low frequency of longer rainfalls. High variation was present in parameters of the IDF equation and in maximum rainfall intensity between stations. The satisfactory performance of the models, as attested to by statistical indices, allows using IDF equations adjusted for rainfall durations from 10 to 360 min, and return periods from 2 to 100 years, in the regions of the Mato Grosso weather stations.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intensity-duration-frequency of maximum rainfall in Mato Grosso State

et al. 2020

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“…A quantidade de falhas encontradas pode ser considerada baixa, quando comparada com aquelas observadas em pluviógrafos. Alves et al (2013) verificaram os registros de precipitação de pluviogramas, em que 45,4% dos dados apresentaram falhas.…”

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2018

Rev. ambiente água

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The state of Bahia's main climatic characteristic is the high spatial and chronological variability of precipitation. This heterogeneity may be used to determine of pluviometrically homogeneous areas that can define mesoregions in the state, since they allow better management of water resources and help in the elaboration of agricultural studies. The mesoregions already proposed by the scientific community for the state were based only on the annual precipitation in the proximity of the pluviometric stations. In this paper, besides these parameters, spatial and chronological rainfall distribution was considered, i.e., the Precipitation Concentration Degree (PCD) and Precipitation Concentration Period (PCP). The new zoning is based on an update of a study defined in 2000 that divided Bahia into eight mesoregions. Thus, 180 pluviometric stations were distributed throughout the state and grouped conforming to the division previously described. It was concluded that some stations of the same mesoregion had presented conflicting values for the analyzed parameters and, therefore, should not belong to the same area. Starting from an arrangement of the collection stations, considering their proximity, annual precipitation and statistical parameters, a new zoning for Bahia with 10 clusters was defined and validated through the statistical treatment of data.

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“…Rainfall can be considered a continuous random variable, and it can be estimated utilizing probable rainfall through the use of theoretical models of probability distribution (Alves et al, 2013). Probable rainfall is the minimum rainfall expected for a region, associated with a level of probability (Carvalho & Oliveira, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal dynamics of rainfall using the gamma distribution for the municipality of Chimoio, Mozambique

Cangela

Silva

Júnior

et al. 2023

Rev. Bras. Geog. Fis.

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Knowledge of rainfall patterns improves agricultural planning and assists in the development of public policies. Thus, the objective was to estimate the monthly and annual rainfall patterns for the municipality of Chimoio, Mozambique. For this, we apply to a series of 32 years (1989-2020) of monthly and annual scale data, the Gamma probability distribution function (GPD). The estimate of rain occurrence was performed at levels of 25, 30, 40, 50, 70, 75, 80, and 90% probability. We performed the adequacy of the GPD using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) adherence tests; Chi-square and Shapiro-Wilk, at 1% significance. Our study showed that the GPD met the KS test, indicating that it can be used to estimate rainfall patterns. Historically, the rainy season in Chimoio comprises December to March, and the months from April to November correspond to the dry season. We also show that there is a 75% probability of rainfall between 30 and 100 mm in the rainy season, with higher values in December (104.3 mm) and January (133.33 mm). Annually, the average rainfall is 1027.7 mm, with a probability of 40 and 50% of rainfall equal to 1065.3 and 990.1 mm, respectively. In the period studied, we noticed that 1997 (1724 mm) and 2006 (546.6 mm) were the wettest and driest years, respectively, showing the great variability of local rainfall patterns. The GPD adequately expressed the probability of rainfall in Chimoio, and can be an important tool for agricultural planning and public policy development in the municipality.

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Análise dos métodos de estimação para os parâmetros das distribuições de Gumbel e GEV em eventos de precipitações máximas na cidade de Cuiabá-MT

Cited by 5 publications

References 6 publications

Intensity-duration-frequency of maximum rainfall in Mato Grosso State

Intensity-duration-frequency of maximum rainfall in Mato Grosso State

Untitled

Temporal dynamics of rainfall using the gamma distribution for the municipality of Chimoio, Mozambique

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