An operational near‐real‐time global temperature index

Quayle, Robert G.; Peterson, Thomas C.; Basist, Alan; Godfrey, Catherine S.

doi:10.1029/1998gl900297

Cited by 37 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…The data were downloaded from UEA on 13 April 2010. Results based on these data were compared to similar results from temperature time series produced at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC; Peterson and Vose 1997;Quayle et al 1999;Smith et al 2008) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS; Hansen and Lebedeff 1987;Hansen et al 1996Hansen et al , 1999. Both series extend from 1880 through 2009; see also Solomon et al (2007) and references therein for additional details of the datasets.…”

Section: Influence Of Choice Of Time Period On Global Surface Temperamentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Choice of Time Period on Global Surface Temperature Trend Estimates

Liebmann

Dole²,

Jones³

et al. 2010

Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.

110

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Section: Influence Of Choice Of Time Period On Global Surface Temperamentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Choice of Time Period on Global Surface Temperature Trend Estimates

Liebmann

Dole²,

Jones³

et al. 2010

Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.

110

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“…Derived from a large network of meteorological stations distributed across the Earth's surface, these estimates are intended to provide the most reliable assessment of spatially averaged, 'background' rates of climate change that are independent of local scale, human-induced effects on temperature (Quayle et al, 1999;Hansen et al, 2001). To this end, local scale climate anomalies, such as the urban heat island (UHI) effect, are eliminated from the global temperature record through the removal of urban meteorological stations from the observation network or through the statistical adjustment of temperature measurements obtained by these stations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban and rural temperature trends in proximity to large US cities: 1951–2000

Stone

2007

Intl Journal of Climatology

125

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This paper presents a study of urban and rural temperature trends in proximity to the most populous metropolitan areas of the US. As data from urban meteorological stations are typically eliminated or adjusted for use in continental and global analyses of climate change, few studies have addressed how temperatures are changing in the areas most vulnerable to the public health impacts of warming: large cities. In this study, temperature data from urban and proximate rural stations for 50 large US metropolitan areas are analysed to establish the mean decadal rate of change in urban temperatures, rural temperatures, and heat island intensity over five decades. The results of this analysis find the mean decadal rate of change in the heat island intensity of large US cities between 1951 and 2000 to be 0.05°C and further show a clear division in temperature trends between cities situated in the northeastern and southern regions of the country.

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“…Consequently, the current linear warming may in fact be the adjustment to the exponential growth in CO 2 that took place prior to 1975. Levitus et al (2000) documented a warming of 0.06°C in the top 3 km of a largearea ocean sample over the course of 40 yr. A lag correlation between that deep-water record and the sea-surface temperature record from Quayle et al (1999) is very suggestive that oceanic thermal lag maximizes around 35 yr (Michaels et al 2001). Thus, the truly exponential phase of concentration growth in the atmosphere, which ended about 25 yr ago, should induce a linear warming for the next decade or two before it could actually begin to damp.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Revised 21st century temperature projections

Michaels¹,

Knappenberger²,

Frauenfeld³

et al. 2002

Clim. Res.

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Temperature projections for the 21st century made in the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate a rise of 1.4 to 5.8°C for 1990-2100. However, several independent lines of evidence suggest that the projections at the upper end of this range are not well supported. Since the publication of the TAR, several findings have appeared in the scientific literature that challenge many of the assumptions that generated the TAR temperature range. Incorporating new findings on the radiative forcing of black carbon (BC) aerosols, the magnitude of the climate sensitivity, and the strength of the climate/carbon cycle feedbacks into a simple upwelling diffusion/energy balance model similar to the one that was used in the TAR, we find that the range of projected warming for the 1990-2100 period is reduced to 1.1-2.8°C. When we adjust the TAR emissions scenarios to include an atmospheric CO 2 pathway that is based upon observed CO 2 increases during the past 25 yr, we find a warming range of 1.5-2.6°C prior to the adjustments for the new findings. Factoring in these findings along with the adjusted CO 2 pathway reduces the range to 1.0-1.6°C. And thirdly, a simple empirical adjustment to the average of a large family of models, based upon observed changes in temperature, yields a warming range of 1.3-3.0°C, with a central value of 1.9°C. The constancy of these somewhat independent results encourages us to conclude that 21st century warming will be modest and near the low end of the IPCC TAR projections.

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An operational near‐real‐time global temperature index

Cited by 37 publications

References 12 publications

Influence of Choice of Time Period on Global Surface Temperature Trend Estimates

Influence of Choice of Time Period on Global Surface Temperature Trend Estimates

Urban and rural temperature trends in proximity to large US cities: 1951–2000

Revised 21st century temperature projections

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