Influence of Choice of Time Period on Global Surface Temperature Trend Estimates

Liebmann, Brant; Dole, Randall M.; Jones, Charles; Bladé, Ileana; Allured, Dave

doi:10.1175/2010bams3030.1

Cited by 110 publications

(102 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…The relatively small standard deviation values and higher R 2 are indicative of the lower interannual variability in the temperature compared to the rainfall values. These linear rising trends are in general agreement with the results reported by Rehman (2010) and Narsallah and Balling (1996), given the statistical uncertainty caused by the available time period for which the data are analysed (Liebmann et al, 2010). Figure 11 displays the spatial distributions for the mean annual temperatures in 1982 and 1999, which are the lowest and highest mean annual temperature years, respectively, during the period 1978-2009 (see Figure 10).…”

Section: Temperature Trendssupporting

confidence: 87%

Recent climate change in the Arabian Peninsula: annual rainfall and temperature analysis of Saudi Arabia for 1978–2009

Almazroui

Islam

Athar

et al. 2012

Intl Journal of Climatology

271

204

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ABSTRACT:The rainfall and temperature climatology over the Arabian Peninsula are analysed on an annual basis using various gridded datasets. For Saudi Arabia, the area of which represents almost 80% of the Peninsula, the climatic datasets from its 27 ground observations are analysed for the period 1978-2009, with additional gridded datasets used to describe the observed state and change of the present climate. The gridded datasets represent well the very dry (40-80 mm) area over the world's largest sand desert (Rub Al-Khali), the dry (80-150 mm) area over middle-to-north of Saudi Arabia, and the wettest (>150 mm) region in the southwest of the Peninsula. The annual temperature is relatively high (24-27°C) in the middle-to-south of the Peninsula and low (<21°C) in the northwest and southwest. The highest temperature (>27°C) is obtained over the Rub Al-Khali. Over Saudi Arabia, the observed annual rainfall showed a significant decreasing trend (47.8 mm per decade) in the last half of the analysis period, with a relatively large interannual variability, while the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures have increased significantly at a rate of 0.71, 0.60, and 0.48°C per decade, respectively. This information is invaluable to consider in any climate impact assessment studies in Saudi Arabia.

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Section: Temperature Trendssupporting

confidence: 87%

Recent climate change in the Arabian Peninsula: annual rainfall and temperature analysis of Saudi Arabia for 1978–2009

Almazroui

Islam

Athar

et al. 2012

Intl Journal of Climatology

271

204

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Observational estimates starting from 1999 occur toward the lower half of both simulated ensembles, coinciding with the observed hiatus in global surface warming [Knight et al, 2010;Wang et al, 2010;Liebmann et al, 2010;Flato et al, 2013], although observed TTTs continue to rise during this period. The year 2009 stands out in that it is the only estimate occurring outside the CMIP5 ensemble for all observational estimates except for the newest-developed IUKv2 .…”

Section: Internal Variability In Tropical Tropospheric Temperaturesmentioning

confidence: 59%

Internal variability in simulated and observed tropical tropospheric temperature trends

Suárez-Gutiérrez

Thorne

et al. 2017

Geophysical Research Letters

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We explore the extent to which internal variability can reconcile discrepancies between observed and simulated warming in the upper tropical troposphere. We compare all extant radiosonde‐based estimates for the period 1958–2014 to simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 multimodel ensemble and the 100 realization Max Planck Institute large ensemble. We consider annual mean temperatures and all available 30‐and 15‐year trends. Most observed trends fall within the ensemble spread for most of the record, and trends calculated over 15‐year periods show better agreement than 30‐year trends, with generally larger discrepancies for the older observational products. The simulated amplification of surface warming aloft in the troposphere is consistent with observations, and the linear correlation between surface and simultaneous tropospheric warming trends decreases with trend length. We conclude that trend differences between observations and simulations of tropical tropospheric temperatures are dominated by observational uncertainty and chaotic internal variability rather than by systematic errors in model performance.

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“…ORA-S3 and ORA-S4 are limited by the availability of the necessary monthly averaged fields for analysis of the ocean mixed layer heat budget (see below). The linear trend is chosen despite the presence of hiatus periods in the global warming record since these are not statistically significant (Liebmann et al 2010), and to minimize the influence of modes of natural variability on interannual to decadal time scales. The evaluation of statistical significance includes an accounting of autocorrelation using the Zwiers and von Storch (1995) two-stage table lookup test procedure.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multidecadal-scale adjustment of the ocean mixed layer heat budget in the tropics: examining ocean reanalyses

2017

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Influence of Choice of Time Period on Global Surface Temperature Trend Estimates

Cited by 110 publications

References 24 publications

Recent climate change in the Arabian Peninsula: annual rainfall and temperature analysis of Saudi Arabia for 1978–2009

Recent climate change in the Arabian Peninsula: annual rainfall and temperature analysis of Saudi Arabia for 1978–2009

Internal variability in simulated and observed tropical tropospheric temperature trends

Multidecadal-scale adjustment of the ocean mixed layer heat budget in the tropics: examining ocean reanalyses

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