An interactive multi-scale integrated assessment of future regional water availability for agricultural irrigation in East Anglia and North West England

Henriques, C.; Holman, Ian P.; Audsley, E.; Pearn, Kerry R.

doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9459-0

Cited by 35 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Callesen et al (2007) showed that freezing and thawing of soils may alter the N turnover, with large losses following periods of frost due to increased ammonification and mineralisation. Matzner and Borken (2008) The projected decrease in summer recharge and increased frequency of droughts will lead to an increased requirement for agricultural irrigation (Henriques et al, 2008). This is most likely in the drier areas of the UK, such as East Anglia.…”

Section: Position Ofmentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of the impact of climate change on future nitrate concentrations in groundwater of the UK

Stuart

Gooddy

Bloomfield

et al. 2011

Science of The Total Environment

142

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This paper reviews the potential impacts of climate change on nitrate concentrations in groundwater of the UK using a Source-Pathway-Receptor framework. Changes in temperature, precipitation quantity and distribution, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will affect the agricultural nitrate source term through changes in both soil processes and agricultural productivity. Non-agricultural source terms, such as urban areas and atmospheric deposition, are also expected to be affected. The implications for the rate of nitrate leaching to groundwater as a result of these changes are not yet fully understood but predictions suggest that leaching rate may increase under future climate scenarios. Climate change will affect the hydrological cycle with changes to recharge, groundwater levels and resources and flow processes. These changes will impact on concentrations of nitrate in abstracted water and other receptors, such as surface water and groundwater-fed wetlands.The implications for nitrate leaching to groundwater as a result of climate changes are not yet well enough understood to be able to make useful predictions without more site-specific data.The few studies which address the whole cycle show likely changes in nitrate leaching ranging from limited increases to a possible doubling of aquifer concentrations by 2100.These changes may be masked by nitrate reductions from improved agricultural practices, but a range of adaption measures need to be identified. Future impact may also be driven by economic responses to climate change. The study draws on extensive literature mainly from the UK and so presents a UK-based perspective, although literature for other temperate climates is included to augment that from Keywordsthe UK and to demonstrate that the proposed framework and general conclusions have a wider applicability.The principal N input to UK groundwater is derived from manures, fertilisers, sewage sludges and crop residues in agricultural areas (DEFRA, 2006). There are also smaller inputs from urban point sources and aerial deposition (Wakida and Lerner, 2005). N fertiliser can be applied as urea or ammonia, as well as nitrate, but the non-nitrate forms are generally converted rapidly to nitrate in the soils of the UK (MAFF, 1999). A small percentage of applied N is lost to the atmosphere as NH 3 , NO or N 2 O (Destouni and Darracq, 2009;Skiba et al., 1997;Sommer and Hutchings, 1995). A proportion of soil N is leached as nitrate from the base of the soil. This is either stored in, or transmitted through, the unsaturated zone to groundwater. groundwater. They found that although an ensemble average suggests there will be about a 5% reduction in annual potential groundwater recharge across the study area, this was not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level and more importantly observed that the spread of results for simulated changes in annual potential groundwater recharge range from a 26% decrease to a 31% increase by the 2080s, with ten GCMs predicting a decrease and three a...

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Section: Position Ofmentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of the impact of climate change on future nitrate concentrations in groundwater of the UK

Stuart

Gooddy

Bloomfield

et al. 2011

Science of The Total Environment

142

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“…Furthermore, warmer dryer conditions will give 876 rise to increases in demand for water to maintain agriculture, for example in the Anglian 877 region, in the East of England, it has been predicted that a 30% increase in the volume of 878 water will be needed to irrigate the same area of crops in 2050. This trend is expected to 879 gradually spread west and north (Henriques et al, 2008). 880…”

mentioning

confidence: 97%

The British river of the future: How climate change and human activity might affect two contrasting river ecosystems in England

Johnson

Acreman

Dunbar

et al. 2009

Science of The Total Environment

139

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“…For southern England, the loss in deployable water output due to climate change and population growth is estimated to be 3 % by 2035 (Charlton and Arnell 2011). Increased irrigation requirements were also found for the south-east and north-west of England (Henriques et al 2008). …”

Section: Ukmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Change—River Flow and Urban Drainage

Willems

Lloyd‐Hughes

2016

North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment

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Hydrological extremes, largely driven by precipitation, are projected to become more intense within the North Sea region. Quantifying future changes in hydrology is difficult, mainly due to the high uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and climate model output. Nevertheless, models suggest that peak river flow in many rivers may be up to 30 % higher by 2100, and in some rivers even higher. The greatest increases are projected for the northern basins. Earlier spring floods are projected for snow-dominated catchments but this does not always cause an increase in peak flows; peak flows may decrease if higher spring temperatures lead to reduced snow storage. An increase in rain-fed flow in winter and autumn may change the seasonality of peak flows and floods. The proximity of a river basin to the ocean is also important; the closer the two the greater the potential damping of any climate change effect. In urban catchments, the specific characteristics of the drainage system will dictate whether the net result of the climate change effect, for example the projected increase in short-duration rainfall extremes, is to damp or amplify the impact of this change in precipitation. The response in terms of sewer flood and overflow frequencies and volumes is highly non-linear. The combined impact of climate change and increased urbanisation in some parts of the North Sea region could result in as much as a four-fold increase in sewer overflow volumes.

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An interactive multi-scale integrated assessment of future regional water availability for agricultural irrigation in East Anglia and North West England

Cited by 35 publications

References 29 publications

A review of the impact of climate change on future nitrate concentrations in groundwater of the UK

A review of the impact of climate change on future nitrate concentrations in groundwater of the UK

The British river of the future: How climate change and human activity might affect two contrasting river ecosystems in England

Projected Change—River Flow and Urban Drainage

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