An Integrated Framework to Analyze Local Decision Making and Adaptation to Sea Level Rise in Coastal Regions in Selsey (UK), Broward County (USA), and Santos (Brazil)

Abstract

One of the clear signals of the ongoing climate change is sea level rise (SLR). Normal oceanic tides superimposed on a rising sea level and coastal flooding will affect many coastal communities. An international collaboration among Brazil, the United Kingdom, and the United States was designed to evaluate local decision making processes and to open space for local urban managers to reflect on possible actions toward adaption to sea level rise given the historical constraints imposed by administrative and institutional structures. This project focused on the processes that shape adaptation of three coastal communities in three countries. It worked jointly with these communities in defining the problem, examining risks, and understanding the benefits and obstacles that may hinder implementation of adaptation options. The framework was co-designed by an interdisciplinary team that incorporated social and natural scientists from the three countries, including local government How to cite this paper: Marengo, J., Muller-Karger, F., Pelling, M., Reynolds, C.J., Merrill, S.B., Nunes, L.H., Paterson, S., Gray, A.J., Lockman, J.T., Kartez, J., Moreira, F.A., Greco, R., Harari, J., Souza, C.R.G., Alves, L.M., Hosokawa, E.K. and Tabuchi, E.K. 404officials. The study addressed 1) evaluation of adaptive capacity through participant surveys and 2) physical and cost impact simulations using geospatial models of the built infrastructure and implementation of adaptation options under different hazard scenarios, including 50 and 100-year sea level rise projections and severe storms. Based on the surveys' results, there is a clear sense of the awareness of each community of the risk of floods due to intense storms, and of the usefulness of engaging early in a process that promotes the understanding of risks, impacts, and costs. A majority of workshop participants prioritized pursuing physical and green infrastructure actions now or within coming years or decades. A positive common aspect of the three sites was the commitment shown by the stakeholders in taking part in the process and evaluating which adaptation measures could be more effective in their cities. While in the US and UK structural solutions and voluntary buyouts were prioritized for the future, Brazil prioritized structural solutions and ecosystems restoration and not voluntary buyouts. All of these are choices to increase resiliency against sea level rise that have a high benefit-cost ratio. The Adaptive Capacity Index (ACI) results illustrate barriers to adaptation action, including technical, economic and political issues that reveal inequalities in adaptive capacity among case studies.

Desafios para a adaptação da infraestrutura de drenagem urbana em cenário de mudança do clima no Recife-PE

“…Georgeson et al (2016) ressaltam que é necessário acelerar os mecanismos de resiliência nas cidades, principalmente através dos formuladores de políticas públicas, que precisam entender a adaptação atual para planejar de forma abrangente e aplicar recursos de forma eficaz. No Brasil, as medidas de adaptação adotadas, em geral, são físicas, como a construção de diques, barragens de contenção de cheias, elevação no nível dos aterros e obras de drenagem (Marengo et al, 2017).…”

Modelagem de eventos extremos de nível do mar no Sistema Estuarino de Santos, São Vicente e Bertioga durante o ano de 2016

“…Souza et al (2018) realizaram uma análise a longo prazo dos eventos meteoceanográficos extremos para a região da Baixada Santista, com base em recortes de jornais de maior circulação da região. Marengo et al (2017) avaliaram a capacidade adaptativa e os impactos físicos e de custo estimados em diferentes cenários, incluindo eventos meteoceanográficos extremos e projeções de elevação do nível do mar. Speranzini (2017) utilizou um modelo numérico com o objetivo de avaliar o transporte de sedimentos no Canal do Porto de Santos.…”

Physical processes in the Santos-São Vicente-Bertioga Estuarine System: from observations to forecasts

“…Previous works have studied the tidal circulation in the SSVBES using numerical models (Harari and Camargo, 1998;Harari et al, 2000;Harari and Camargo, 2003). Alfredini et al (2014) investigated a possible increase in significant wave height, and Marengo et al (2017) estimated possible structural damages and economic impacts caused by flooding as consequences of global changes. Estuary classification has been addressed in Bertioga Channel by Miranda and Castro (1998) and in Piaçaguera Channel by Miranda et al (2012).…”

“…Assuming a linear increase, the significant wave height may increase by 0.45 m untill 2100. A more interdisciplinary work of Marengo et al (2017) proposed adaptation strategies to minimize the structural damage and economical losses from future sea level rise and severe storm projections. Other works in the region described the recent characteristics of storm surges.…”