An error analysis of the Budyko hypothesis for assessing the contribution of climate change to runoff

Yang, Hanbo; Yang, Dawen; Hu, Qizhou

doi:10.1002/2014wr015451

Cited by 85 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…Then, a group of scholars used elasticity analysis in climate sensitivity analyses during the 1990s (Schaake and Waggoner, ; Kuhnel et al, ; Dooge, ; Dooge et al, ). The elastic coefficients represent the degree to which the response rate varies between multiple elements in a multi‐variable problem (Yang et al, ; Brikowski, ). Multiple regression models can be used to evaluate elasticity coefficients of multiple factors in response to addition of a single additional factor (Ma et al, ).…”

Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 92%

River networks system changes and its impact on storage and flood control capacity under rapid urbanization

Yang

Han

et al. 2016

Hydrological Processes

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Urbanization significantly affects both the drainage network structure and the storage capacity of river channels in lowland plain river networks. The Yangtze River Delta region has experienced a rapid and profound urbanization of any region worldwide in the past 30 years. The southeast Yinfeng plain in the Yangtze River Delta region was used as the study area to assess changes in the river network structure from 1990 to 2010, using river feature parameter analyses and GIS spatial analysis. The elastic method was adopted to analyse river network pattern response to both urbanization and climate change, and the rates at which these factors contributed to changes in the river network pattern were investigated. Changes in the storage capacity and flood control capacity of the channel network over the past 21 years were then analysed. The results indicated that: (1) the number of river networks, and the complexity of the river network spatial structures were reduced, the drainage density decreased by 20%, the water surface ratio by 36%, the river area–length ratio by nearly 18% and the fractal dimension of the river networks by 4.5%; (2) the river network changes were due more to human activities than to climate change in this study period. Limited changes occurred in the structure of the river system, as indicated by an urbanization variability rate of less than 20% and precipitation variability range of −5% to −15%, although the stream structure gradually decreased with increasing urbanization variability; and (3) the storage capacity of the main river network decreased earlier (1990–2003) and was restored later (2003–2010) because of dredging and widening activities. In addition, the number of lower‐order rivers decreased, which resulted in significant decreases in the storage and flood control capacities of the river networks. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 92%

River networks system changes and its impact on storage and flood control capacity under rapid urbanization

Yang

Han

et al. 2016

Hydrological Processes

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“…(16) for the third order is equal to 3 % of the second order according to Yang et al (2014b). The relative error (RE) of attribution method to investigate the contribution of snow ratio change is estimated as…”

Section: Error Analysis Of Attribution Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of snow ratio on annual runoff within the Budyko framework

Zhang

Cong

et al. 2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract.A warmer climate may lead to less precipitation falling as snow in cold seasons. Such a switch in the state of precipitation not only alters temporal distribution of intra-annual runoff but also tends to yield less total annual runoff. Long-term water balance for 282 catchments across China is investigated, showing that a decreasing snow ratio reduces annual runoff for a given total precipitation. Within the Budyko framework, we develop an equation to quantify the relationship between snow ratio and annual runoff from a water-energy balance viewpoint. Based on the proposed equation, attribution of runoff change during the past several decades and possible runoff change induced by projected snow ratio change using climate experiment outputs archived in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are analyzed. Results indicate that annual runoff in northwestern mountainous and northern highlatitude areas are sensitive to snow ratio change. The proposed model is applicable to other catchments easily and quantitatively for analyzing the effects of possible change in snow ratio on available water resources and evaluating the vulnerability of catchments to climate change.

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“…Many previous studies with the Budyko framework have separated a time series into two periods to estimate changes in hydrologic conditions between the two periods, either with observations (Jiang et al, 2015;Liang and Liu, 2014;Liu and McVicar, 2012;Xu et al, 2014;Yang H. et al, 2014;Zhang X. et al, 2014) or using modelled data . Most of these studies have been applied at single basins (Donohue et al, 2011;Jiang et al, 2015;Liang and Liu, 2014;Liu and McVicar, 2012;Roderick and Farquhar, 2011;Xu et al, 2014;Zhang X. et al, 2014) or multiple basins within a single region: USA (Chen et al, 2013;Wang and Hejazi, 2011;Carmona et al, 2014;Istanbulluoglu et al, 2012), Australia (Donohue et al, 2010(Donohue et al, , 2012Teng et al, 2012), China (Yang D. et al, 2007(Yang D. et al, , 2009Yang and Yang, 2011;Yang H. et al, 2014;Cong et al, 2015;Xiong and Guo, 2012;Yu et al, 2013) and Europe (Velde et al, 2014;Oudin et al, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most of these studies have been applied at single basins (Donohue et al, 2011;Jiang et al, 2015;Liang and Liu, 2014;Liu and McVicar, 2012;Roderick and Farquhar, 2011;Xu et al, 2014;Zhang X. et al, 2014) or multiple basins within a single region: USA (Chen et al, 2013;Wang and Hejazi, 2011;Carmona et al, 2014;Istanbulluoglu et al, 2012), Australia (Donohue et al, 2010(Donohue et al, , 2012Teng et al, 2012), China (Yang D. et al, 2007(Yang D. et al, , 2009Yang and Yang, 2011;Yang H. et al, 2014;Cong et al, 2015;Xiong and Guo, 2012;Yu et al, 2013) and Europe (Velde et al, 2014;Oudin et al, 2008). The global scale studies have also been conducted but mainly focusing on the development of the Budyko functional forms (Koster and Suarez, 1999;Zhang L. et al, 2001;Arora, 2002) and their parameters (Li et al, 2013;Williams et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of future runoff projections using Budyko framework and global hydrologic model: conceptual simplicity vs process complexity

Fernández

Sayama

2015

Hydrological Research Letters

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Abstract:This paper compared future runoff projections using a Budyko type equation with respect to projections by a global hydrological model (GHM). The comparison was made for the annual mean runoff projections for a future period (2060-2100) after the Budyko parameter was set based on hydrologic model outputs at a present period . The objective of this study was to investigate the performance of the Budyko equation with respect to the hydrologic model at different climate regions. To address the question this study used the spatial average of runoff for the 35 largest basins in the world. According to the comparison, the projections by the two approaches agreed well (R 2 = 0.983), in particular in humid tropic region (R 2 = 0.986), but with consistent underestimation of future runoff (Median Error, ME = -0.042) by the Budyko equation. In subarctic region the performance of the Budyko equation was low (R 2 = 0.599) due to the overestimation of future runoff (ME = 0.110). The results in the dry and temperate regions also showed some discrepancy (R 2 = 0.931 and 0.724) without apparent patterns in the errors. The paper discussed possible reasons for the errors with respect to water and energy seasonality and changes in storage component contributions.

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An error analysis of the Budyko hypothesis for assessing the contribution of climate change to runoff

Cited by 85 publications

References 49 publications

River networks system changes and its impact on storage and flood control capacity under rapid urbanization

River networks system changes and its impact on storage and flood control capacity under rapid urbanization

Effects of snow ratio on annual runoff within the Budyko framework

Comparison of future runoff projections using Budyko framework and global hydrologic model: conceptual simplicity vs process complexity

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