Comparison of future runoff projections using Budyko framework and global hydrologic model: conceptual simplicity vs process complexity

Fernández, Raúl; Sayama, Takahiro

doi:10.3178/hrl.9.75

Cited by 8 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 54 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Future climate changes projected for catchments in the central Appalachian Mountains region are consistent with other studies that show increases in both P and atmospheric water demand (e.g., [42,92,93]). Changes were greater in magnitude and variability with the more severe RCP compared to the more conservative pathway with lower atmospheric CO 2 equivalents [21,23,24].…”

Section: Twenty-first Century Climate and Streamflowsupporting

confidence: 87%

Twenty-First Century Streamflow and Climate Change in Forest Catchments of the Central Appalachian Mountains Region, US

Gaertner

Fernández

Zégre

2020

Water

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Forested catchments are critical sources of freshwater used by society, but anthropogenic climate change can alter the amount of precipitation partitioned into streamflow and evapotranspiration, threatening their role as reliable fresh water sources. One such region in the eastern US is the heavily forested central Appalachian Mountains region that provides fresh water to local and downstream metropolitan areas. Despite the hydrological importance of this region, the sensitivity of forested catchments to climate change and the implications for long-term water balance partitioning are largely unknown. We used long-term historic and future (2005-2099) ensemble climate and water balance data and a simple energy-water balance model to quantify streamflow sensitivity and project future streamflow changes for 29 forested catchments under two future Relative Concentration Pathways. We found that streamflow is expected to increase under the low-emission pathway and decrease under the high-emission pathway. Furthermore, despite the greater sensitivity of streamflow to precipitation, larger increases in atmospheric demand offset increases in precipitation-induced streamflow, resulting in moderate changes in long-term water availability in the future. Catchment-scale results are summarized across basins and the region to provide water managers and decision makers with information about climate change at scales relevant to decision making.

show abstract

Section: Twenty-first Century Climate and Streamflowsupporting

confidence: 87%

Twenty-First Century Streamflow and Climate Change in Forest Catchments of the Central Appalachian Mountains Region, US

Gaertner

Fernández

Zégre

2020

Water

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Comparative studies have shown that Budyko framework-derived methods are robust and effective in hydrological analysis (Zhan et al, 2014;Fernandez and Sayama, 2015).…”

Section: Budyko Framework and Metricsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding climate and land surface changes impact on water resources using Budyko framework and remote sensing data in Ethiopia

Abera¹,

Tamene²,

Abegaz

et al. 2019

Journal of Arid Environments

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…In the midlatitudes of the temperate region where the ''Appalachian Region'' (see section 2) is located, P and E P are of comparable magnitudes (Weiss and Menzel 2008;Fernandez and Sayama 2015). However, E P is directly linked to solar radiation and temperature, which are concentrated in the summer months (Coopersmith et al 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal Changes in Water and Energy Balances over the Appalachian Region and Beyond throughout the Twenty-First Century

Fernández

Zégre

2019

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Appalachian Mountains serve as a water source for important population centers in the eastern and midwestern United States. Despite this, the effects of climate change on the hydroclimatology of the region have not been thoroughly assessed, and its effects for water resources remain uncertain. In this study, we analyze the effects of climate change in a holistic approach to consider differential changes between atmospheric water supply (precipitation) and atmospheric water demand (potential evapotranspiration). We analyze the absolute and relative changes in both variables, as well as their relation (aridity index) and future projected shifts in their seasonality. Our findings show that precipitation is projected to increase in the northeastern part of the region and decrease in the southwest with a transition zone in the central Appalachians. Potential evapotranspiration increases consistently throughout the twenty-first century at a higher rate than precipitation, increasing the aridity of the region except for some small localized pockets at high elevations. The seasonality of precipitation indicates different shifts across the region related to changes in the dominant synoptic drivers of the region and changes in the seasonal characteristics of the land surface. All changes are exacerbated in the most extreme future climate scenario, highlighting the importance of local to global policies toward a more sustainable water resources development. In addition, we perform a basin-scale assessment on 20 major rivers with headwaters within the “Appalachian Region.” Our basin-scale results enforce the gridded regional results and indicate that, as temperatures continue to increase, lowland areas will rely more heavily on higher-elevation forested headwater catchments for water supply.

show abstract

Comparison of future runoff projections using Budyko framework and global hydrologic model: conceptual simplicity vs process complexity

Cited by 8 publications

References 54 publications

Twenty-First Century Streamflow and Climate Change in Forest Catchments of the Central Appalachian Mountains Region, US

Twenty-First Century Streamflow and Climate Change in Forest Catchments of the Central Appalachian Mountains Region, US

Understanding climate and land surface changes impact on water resources using Budyko framework and remote sensing data in Ethiopia

Seasonal Changes in Water and Energy Balances over the Appalachian Region and Beyond throughout the Twenty-First Century

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About