An Automated Method to Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using SSM/I Imagery

Bankert, Richard L.; Tag, Paul M.

doi:10.1175/1520-0450(2002)041<0461:aamtet>2.0.co;2

Cited by 48 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…For example, at the Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey, Bankert and Tag (2002) experimented with an objective, computerbased algorithm to objectively match SSM/I 85-GHz signatures with TC intensity levels. More recent work on this algorithm has yielded promising results as a potential TC estimation tool (J. D. Hawkins 2005, personal communication).…”

Section: Limitations Of the Dvorak Techniquementioning

confidence: 99%

The Dvorak Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Technique: A Satellite-Based Method that Has Endured for over 30 Years

Velden¹,

Harper²,

Wells³

et al. 2006

Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.

326

200

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Section: Limitations Of the Dvorak Techniquementioning

confidence: 99%

The Dvorak Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Technique: A Satellite-Based Method that Has Endured for over 30 Years

Velden¹,

Harper²,

Wells³

et al. 2006

Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.

326

200

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…Passive microwave imagery on the other hand has the ability to observe tropical cyclone characteristics at several levels and scales. Several previous works focused on associating 85-GHz information with current and future intensity (Glass and Felde 1992;Rao and McCoy 1997;Cecil and Zipser 1999;Bankert and Tag 2002;Lee et al 2002). The primary reasons for using 85-GHz brightness temperatures T b are their relatively high spatial resolution (compared with other microwave channels) and their sensitivity to precipitation ice such as graupel and hail.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Other works used information from multiple microwave frequencies (e.g., 19 and 37 GHz) to derive rainfall rate information associated with tropical cyclones (Spencer et al 1989;Rao and MacArthur 1994;Rodgers et al 1994;Rodgers and Pierce 1995;Bankert and Tag 2002). Rainfall rate has been noted as an estimator of the amount of diabatic heating occurring within the inner-core region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Passive-Microwave-Enhanced Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme

Jones

Cecil

DeMaria

2006

Weather and Forecasting

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The formulation and testing of an enhanced Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) using new predictors derived from passive microwave imagery is presented. Passive microwave imagery is acquired for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins between 1995 and 2003. Predictors relating to the inner-core (within 100 km of center) precipitation and convective characteristics of tropical cyclones are derived. These predictors are combined with the climatological and environmental predictors used by SHIPS in a simple linear regression model with change in tropical cyclone intensity as the predictand. Separate linear regression models are produced for forecast intervals of 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, and 72 h from the time of a microwave sensor overpass. Analysis of the resulting models indicates that microwave predictors, which provide an intensification signal to the model when above-average precipitation and convective signatures are present, have comparable importance to vertical wind shear and SSTrelated predictors. The addition of the microwave predictors produces a 2%-8% improvement in performance for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity forecasts out to 72 h when compared with an environmental-only model trained from the same sample. Improvement is also observed when compared against the current version of SHIPS. The improvement in both basins is greatest for substantially intensifying or weakening tropical cyclones. Improvement statistics are based on calculating the forecast error for each tropical cyclone while it is held out of the training sample to approximate the use of independent data.

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“…For example, automated TC intensity forecasting techniques developed by Velden and coauthors (1998) and Olander and Velden (2007) follow the basic concepts and empirical rules proposed by Dvorak. There are also TC intensity forecasting techniques that use satellite images as the only predictor, but these techniques do not use Dvorak's empirical rules (Bankert & Tag, 2002;Gentry et al, 1980). Examples of these techniques include satellite-measured equivalent blackbody temperature developed by Gentry and coauthors (1980), and an automated intensity estimation technique developed by Bankert and Tag (2002).…”

Section: Tc Intensity Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Informed System Development Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasting

Roy

2016

Linköping Studies in Science and Technology. Dissertations

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Introduction: Tropical Cyclones (TCs) inflict considerable damage to life and property every year. A major problem is that residents often hesitate to follow evacuation orders when the early warning messages are perceived as inaccurate or uninformative. The root problem is that providing accurate early forecasts can be difficult, especially in countries with less economic and technical means. Aim:The aim of the thesis is to investigate how cyclone early warning systems can be technically improved. This means, first, identifying problems associated with the current cyclone early warning systems, and second, investigating if biologically based Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are feasible to solve some of the identified problems.Method: First, for evaluating the efficiency of cyclone early warning systems, Bangladesh was selected as study area, where a questionnaire survey and an in-depth interview were administered. Second, a review of currently operational TC track forecasting techniques was conducted to gain a better understanding of various techniques' prediction performance, data requirements, and computational resource requirements. Third, a technique using biologically based ANNs was developed to produce TC track and intensity forecasts. Systematic testing was used to find optimal values for simulation parameters, such as feature-detector receptive field size, the mixture of unsupervised and supervised learning, and learning rate schedule. Five types of 2D data were used for training. The networks were tested on two types of novel data, to assess their generalization performance. Results:A major problem that is identified in the thesis is that the meteorologists at the Bangladesh Meteorological Department are currently not capable of providing accurate TC forecasts. This is an important contributing factor to residents' reluctance to evacuate. To address this issue, an ANN-based TC track and intensity forecasting technique was developed that can produce early and accurate forecasts, uses freely available satellite images, and does not require extensive computational resources to run. Bidirectional connections, combined supervised and unsupervised learning, and a deep hierarchical structure assists the parallel extraction of useful features from five types of 2D data. The trained networks were tested on two types of novel data: First, tests were performed with novel data covering the end of the lifecycle of trained cyclones; for these test data, the forecasts produced by the networks were correct in 91-100% of the cases. Second, the networks were tested with data of a novel TC; in this case, the networks performed with between 30% and 45% accuracy (for intensity forecasts). Conclusions:The ANN technique developed in this thesis could, with further extensions and up-scaling, using additional types of input images of a greater number of TCs, improve the efficiency of cyclone early warning systems in countries with less economic and technical means. The thesis work also creates opportunities for furthe...

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An Automated Method to Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using SSM/I Imagery

Cited by 48 publications

References 7 publications

The Dvorak Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Technique: A Satellite-Based Method that Has Endured for over 30 Years

The Dvorak Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Technique: A Satellite-Based Method that Has Endured for over 30 Years

Passive-Microwave-Enhanced Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme

An Informed System Development Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasting

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