The Dvorak Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Technique: A Satellite-Based Method that Has Endured for over 30 Years

Velden, Christopher S.; Harper, Bruce; Wells, Frank; Beven, John L.; Zehr, Ray; Olander, Timothy L.; Mayfield, Max; Lander, Mark A.; Edson, Roger T.; Avila, Lixion; Burton, Andrew; Turk, Mike; Kikuchi, Akihiro; Christian, Adam; Caroff, Philippe; McCrone, Paul J.

doi:10.1175/bams-87-9-1195

Cited by 327 publications

(221 citation statements)

References 15 publications

(19 reference statements)

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“…Even at the most basic level, the definition of wind speed varies considerably around the globe, with 1, 10, 3 and even 2-min averaging periods in use (Harper et al 2008). Some homogenization is provided by the universal use of the Dvorak satellite interpretation technique (Velden et al 2006;Knaff et al 2010) but there remain issues with the approaches used to convert from the satellite pattern code to a surface wind speed.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent intense hurricane response to global climate change

2013

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An Anthropogenic Climate Change Index (ACCI) is developed and used to investigate the potential global warming contribution to current tropical cyclone activity. The ACCI is defined as the difference between the means of ensembles of climate simulations with and without anthropogenic gases and aerosols. This index indicates that the bulk of the current anthropogenic warming has occurred in the past four decades, which enables improved confidence in assessing hurricane changes as it removes many of the data issues from previous eras. We find no anthropogenic signal in annual global tropical cyclone or hurricane frequencies. But a strong signal is found in proportions of both weaker and stronger hurricanes: the proportion of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes has increased at a rate of *25-30 % per°C of global warming after accounting for analysis and observing system changes. This has been balanced by a similar decrease in Category 1 and 2 hurricane proportions, leading to development of a distinctly bimodal intensity distribution, with the secondary maximum at Category 4 hurricanes. This global signal is reproduced in all ocean basins. The observed increase in Category 4-5 hurricanes may not continue at the same rate with future global warming. The analysis suggests that following an initial climate increase in intense hurricane proportions a saturation level will be reached beyond which any further global warming will have little effect.

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Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent intense hurricane response to global climate change

2013

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“…com/hurricane/e_pacific/index.html) and were verified against the database of the National Hurricane Center (www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml). Moreover, although the trends of AADEP associated and not associated with TC's were estimated for the period 1961-2000, only data since 1971 were analyzed separately, because the data since 1970 are more reliable, since from that time forward the intensity has been estimated by the Dvorak technique based on satellite imagery [19].…”

Section: Average Annual Daily Extreme Precipitation (Aadep)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating Trends and Return Periods of Daily Extreme Precipitation Associated with Tropical Cyclones in the Core North American Monsoon

Cárdenas¹,

Norzagaray-Campos²,

Sevilla³

et al. 2016

Pol. J. Environ. Stud.

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The largest number of tropical cyclones (TCs) is generated in the northeastern Pacific Basin. These storms can produce extreme precipitation (EP) in northwestern Mexico, causing loss of life and environmental damage. It is important to understand the dynamics that cause the EP associated with TCs, since most human activity requires planning to adjust to the dynamics of local climate changes. Therefore, in this work the goal was to estimate the trends and return periods of the average annual daily extreme precipitation (AADEP; 95th percentile, P95) in the June-September season in the core North American monsoon. To do this, daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2000 from 48 climate computing (CLICOM) weather stations located in the core of the North American monsoon were used to determine AADEP:1. Non-parametric trends with Mann-Kendall tests and Sen's slope estimator. 2. Linear trends of annual averages of 95 (P95) and 99 (P99) percentiles with the least squares method. 3. Return periods with the Gumbel frequency distribution function. The results disclose a significant upward trend in the intensity of P95 increases in mountain stations, which may be related to a greater contribution of precipitation associated with TCs. The seasonal contribution of P95 in coastal stations and the total monsoon precipitation did not show statistical significance at α = 0.05. The return periods of P95 associated and not associated with TC's from 2005 to 2500 were calculated. Return periods of P99 have been rising since 2010 and will continue to 2500. For P95 events associated with TCs, the anomalies are expressed with synoptic conditions of simultaneous positive anomalies in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (+PDO), negative anomalies in the

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“…The historical record of TC intensity change has increased in length and temporal resolution with the advent of and regular use of geostationary satellites to estimate TC intensity using the Dvorak method (see Velden et al, 2006 for a historical perspective). With these new and more expansive datasets, this article will examine the records of recurving TCs in the North Atlantic, West Pacific and Southern Hemisphere in the years 1980-2006 to try to confirm past studies and determine if the results of EM98 and R72 can be generalized to other basins.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Revisiting the maximum intensity of recurving tropical cyclones

Knaff

2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Previous studies have indicated that recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones, initially westward moving tropical cyclones that turn toward the east, often reach their maximum intensity close to the time of recurvature. Those results have often been cited in the literature and sometimes inferred to be valid in other tropical cyclone basins. This study revisits this topic in the western North Pacific, North Atlantic and Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone basins. The timing of lifetime maximum intensity associated with recurving tropical cyclones is examined using best track datasets from the United States' Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the National Hurricane Center, Miami during the period 1980-2006. Results reveal that tropical cyclones are less likely to experience peak intensity within ±12 h and ±24 h of recurvature than has been previously reported in the western North Pacific. Furthermore, it is shown that tropical cyclones that become most intense (i.e. intensities greater than 52 m s −1 ) have a greater tendency to reach peak intensity before recurvature than weaker storms save for in the South Pacific where the most intense storms have a slightly greater probability of reaching their maximum intensity following recurvature. It also appears that weak tropical cyclones (i.e. lifetime peak intensities less than 33 m s −1 ) often reach peak intensity prior to or close to recurvature in all tropical cyclone basins as others have reported. However, findings suggest that the cumulative distributions of maximum intensity with respect to the time of recurvature can be quite different for other intensity ranges suggesting that a universal relationship between peak intensity and time of recurvature does not exist.

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The Dvorak Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Technique: A Satellite-Based Method that Has Endured for over 30 Years

Cited by 327 publications

References 15 publications

Recent intense hurricane response to global climate change

Recent intense hurricane response to global climate change

Estimating Trends and Return Periods of Daily Extreme Precipitation Associated with Tropical Cyclones in the Core North American Monsoon

Revisiting the maximum intensity of recurving tropical cyclones

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