Revisiting the maximum intensity of recurving tropical cyclones

Abstract

Previous studies have indicated that recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones, initially westward moving tropical cyclones that turn toward the east, often reach their maximum intensity close to the time of recurvature. Those results have often been cited in the literature and sometimes inferred to be valid in other tropical cyclone basins. This study revisits this topic in the western North Pacific, North Atlantic and Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone basins. The timing of lifetime maximum intensity associated with recurving tropical cyclones is examined using best track datasets from the United States' Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the National Hurricane Center, Miami during the period 1980-2006. Results reveal that tropical cyclones are less likely to experience peak intensity within ±12 h and ±24 h of recurvature than has been previously reported in the western North Pacific. Furthermore, it is shown that tropical cyclones that become most intense (i.e. intensities greater than 52 m s −1 ) have a greater tendency to reach peak intensity before recurvature than weaker storms save for in the South Pacific where the most intense storms have a slightly greater probability of reaching their maximum intensity following recurvature. It also appears that weak tropical cyclones (i.e. lifetime peak intensities less than 33 m s −1 ) often reach peak intensity prior to or close to recurvature in all tropical cyclone basins as others have reported. However, findings suggest that the cumulative distributions of maximum intensity with respect to the time of recurvature can be quite different for other intensity ranges suggesting that a universal relationship between peak intensity and time of recurvature does not exist.

What would happen to Superstorm Sandy under the influence of a substantially warmer Atlantic Ocean?

“…Within 24 h, instead of moving northward as in PSST, the NE storm swings northeastward toward the open ocean and begins to weaken briefly (see Video S2.3). This situation is consistent with the oft‐observed recurvature of intense Atlantic hurricanes in the subtropics immediately after reaching maximum intensity [ Knaff , ]. The eastward recurvature continues for the next 48 h. By 00 Z 29 October (Figure k), with the center of the storm located more than 800 km east of its PSST counterpart.…”

Pattern Classification of Typhoon Tracks Using the Fuzzy c-Means Clustering Method

“…It is notable that the anomalous positive rainfall maxima are situated to the south of the mean TC recurving latitudes of these clusters. This is because TCs move slower and become stronger before recurving (Knaff 2009). …”

Southern hemisphere tropical cyclone intensity forecast methods used at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Part II: statistical-dynamical forecasts

“…Most important forecast hour tensification, may be related to intensification trends during extratropical transition or the propensity for South Pacific TCs to intensify post recurvature (Knaff 2009). The predictors VMAX2, MPI, MPI2, and MPI*VMAX can be thought of as a potential for intensification and when grouped together show that weaker storms with larger MPI values can intensify at greater rates, which is similar to results presented in Knaff et al (2005).…”