An approach to estimating tuberculosis incidence and case detection rate from routine notification data

Avilov, K.K.; Aa, Romanyukha; Borisov, S. E.; Em, Belilovsky; Ob, Nechaeva; Karkach, Arseniy S.

doi:10.5588/ijtld.14.0317

Cited by 16 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…где rand(0, 1) -это случайное число, равномерно распределенное на [0, 1]. Вывод формул (11)(12)(13)(14) см. в Приложении.…”

Section: с вероятностьюunclassified

“…Для сравнения параллельной и последовательной схем моделирования течения ТОД использовалась вышеописанная математическая модель с тремя наборами параметров (табл. 1): параллельной схеме соответствовали близкие друг к другу параметры из работ [7,8], а последовательной -параметры из работы [12].…”

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Comparison Of Modeling Schemes for Natural Course Of Pulmonary Tuberculosis

Avilov¹,

Romanyukha²,

Belilovsky³

et al. 2019

Math.Biol.Bioinf.

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In construction of mathematical models of propagation and control of pulmonary tuberculosis, presence or absence of bacterioexcretion is often used as the marker of disease severity. There are two major schemes of modeling for natural corse of tuberculosis. The first one is so called parallel scheme, the more frequently used, which assumes that a fraction of incident cases develops bacterioexcretion rapidly and retains it till the end of the disease. The second one is serial scheme, the less often used one, which assumes that tuberculosis always starts without bactrioexcretion, and then a fraction of cases progresses to the bacterioexcretion stage. In this article, we compare these two modeling schemes on the basis of their fit to the real data from Moscow city, 2013-2018, which contain information on time and results of the last fluorography examination of the detected tuberculosis cases and their health condition at the moment of detection. Such data limit the possible duration of the disease, and, thus, permit an estimation of the dynamics of progression to bacterioexcretion for untreated tuberculosis. We have developed an agent-based model with realistic profiles of mortality and undergoing fluorography examinations and with an analog of the traditional compartmental model of natural history of tuberculosis on the basis of ordinary differential equations. On the basis of computational experiments with the model, the serial modelling scheme turned out to be closer to reality. On the other hand, due to the bad fit to the real data, we concluded that both the detection submodel and the submodel of natural course of pulmonary tuberculosis should be redesigned.

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Section: вычислительные экспериментыunclassified

Comparison Of Modeling Schemes for Natural Course Of Pulmonary Tuberculosis

Avilov¹,

Romanyukha²,

Belilovsky³

et al. 2019

Math.Biol.Bioinf.

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“…We follow the Russian national standard and refer to infectious smear or culture positive pulmonary tuberculosis as MTB+ (Avilov et al, 2015). Notification rate of tuberculosis with MTB+ ranges across Moscow municipalities from 3.4 to 20.2 (cases per 100 000 population per year) (see Figure 3a) (mean TB notification rate for years 2010-2014, data for 107 selected municipalities).…”

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confidence: 99%

Small-scale stable clusters of elevated tuberculosis incidence in Moscow, 2000–2015: Discovery and spatiotemporal analysis

Romanyukha

Karkach

Borisov

et al. 2020

International Journal of Infectious Diseases

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A B S T R A C TObjectives: To find residential areas with high incidence rate of tuberculosis in Moscow using spatiotemporal analysis of incidence data. Methods: We analyzed the spatial patterns of residence locations of smear or culture positive patients with pulmonary tuberculosis in Moscow. To identify clusters with high local incidence rates, the neighborhoods of detected cases were studied. We assessed the spatial and temporal stability of clusters. Results: For 19 033 cases diagnosed with smear or culture positive pulmonary tuberculosis among residents of Moscow in 2000-2015 we identified 18 small-scale clusters of increased incidence rate responsible for 3% of all registered cases identified on a territory inhabited by only 1% of the population. Locations of clusters were sufficiently stable in space throughout the whole period. The local incidence rate inside clusters was significantly (3-4 times) higher than the city average during the whole observation period. The presence of clusters was associated with the incidence rate in the surrounding area. Socio-demographic characteristics of patients in clusters were not significantly different from the average characteristics of patients in the city. Conclusions: The detected small-scale clusters of increased incidence may be used to target active case finding for tuberculosis. The causes and mechanisms of cluster formation and stability need further study.

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“…The reporting is an action subsequent to the diagnostic confirmation that allows an accompaniment of the disease, aiming at the dissemination of the information to the management organs in order to assist in the decision making for the control of the disease (1,3) . Although several researchers emphasize the importance of detecting and notifying TB cases for disease control (1,(4)(5)(6) , in Mozambique these actions fall far short of the numbers estimated by the World Health Organization (WHO) (4) . The country is one of the 30 countries that contribute the largest number of TB cases in the world and is included in the select group of countries with incidence greater than 500/100,000 inhabitants (1) .…”

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“…Studies in several countries, such as Nigeria, Brazil, Afghanistan and Kenya, emphasize case detection and reporting in specific groups such as children, prisoners and people living in rural areas (6,(8)(9)(10) . But none explores the discourses of health professionals regarding the detection and reporting of TB cases.…”

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Obstacles in the detection and reporting of tuberculosis cases: a discursive analysis

et al. 2018

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Objective: To analyze the discourses of health professionals about the obstacles in the process of detection and reporting of tuberculosis cases in Mozambique. Method: Qualitative exploratory study with a theoretical-methodological approach of Discourse Analysis of French matrix. The study was conducted in Mozambique in 2014 at three levels: central, provincial and district. The study included 15 health professionals, 4 physicians, 6 technicians and 5 nursing professionals, who worked in the National Tuberculosis Control Program, with more than 1 year of experience. Result: The following discursive blocks emerged: Detection of tuberculosis cases in laboratories; Underreporting of tuberculosis cases; Obstacles to detect cases of tuberculosis: long distances and lack of transport; and Reporting of cases for decision making. Final considerations: The discourses analyzed point to the ideological affi liation that includes the lack of investment policies in the health sector and the political commitment as basic obstacles in the detection and reporting of tuberculosis cases. Descriptors: Tuberculosis; Social Policy; Health Policy; Health Service; Nursing in Public Health. RESUMO Objetivo: Analisar os discursos dos profi ssionais de saúde acerca das barreiras no processo de detecção e notifi cação dos casos de tuberculose em Moçambique. Método: Estudo exploratório qualitativo com abordagem teórico-metodológica da Análise de Discurso de matriz francesa. O estudo foi realizado em Moçambique, no ano de 2014, em três níveis: central, provincial e distrital. Fizeram parte do estudo 15 profi ssionais de saúde, sendo 4 médicos, 6 técnicos e 5 profi ssionais de enfermagem, que atuavam no Programa Nacional de Controle da Tuberculose, com mais de 1 ano de experiência. Resultado: Emergiram os seguintes blocos discursivos: Detecção dos casos da tuberculose em laboratórios; Subnotifi cação dos casos da tuberculose; Barreiras para detecção de casos de tuberculose: longas distâncias e falta de transporte; e Notifi cação dos casos para a tomada de decisão. Considerações fi nais: Os discursos analisados apontam para a fi liação ideológica que compreende a falta de políticas de investimento no setor da saúde e do comprometimento político como barreiras basilares na detecção e notifi cação dos casos da tuberculose.

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An approach to estimating tuberculosis incidence and case detection rate from routine notification data

Abstract: The general approach that uses multistage models of disease progression and accordingly stratified notification data can be applied in various settings for the routine estimation of incidence and CDR.

Cited by 16 publications

References 11 publications

Comparison Of Modeling Schemes for Natural Course Of Pulmonary Tuberculosis

Comparison Of Modeling Schemes for Natural Course Of Pulmonary Tuberculosis

Small-scale stable clusters of elevated tuberculosis incidence in Moscow, 2000–2015: Discovery and spatiotemporal analysis

Obstacles in the detection and reporting of tuberculosis cases: a discursive analysis

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