Small-scale stable clusters of elevated tuberculosis incidence in Moscow, 2000–2015: Discovery and spatiotemporal analysis

Romanyukha, A. A.; Karkach, Arseny S.; Borisov, S. E.; Belilovsky, E. M.; Sannikova, T. E.; Krivorotko, Olga

doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2019.11.015

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 7 publications

(7 reference statements)

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“…We previously identified clusters of high incidence rate of pulmonary TB on the periphery of Moscow [ 3 ]. Here, we aimed to investigate how such clusters emerge and to detect clusters of growing incidence rate before they reach high levels, i.e.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To estimate the trends of local incidence rates, we used the “screening circles” of radius R = 200m centred at geographical coordinates (usually apartment buildings) of every MBT+ case reported [ 3 ], to which we refer to as “locations” ( Figure 1 , Panel A). By sampling the cases within them, we calculated the case count for every year and location.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Once identified, such spots are a priority target for anti-TB activities. To solve this problem, we extended the approach proposed in another study [ 3 ].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Identification of growing tuberculosis incidence clusters in a region with a decrease in tuberculosis prevalence in Moscow (2000-2019)

Romanyukha

Karkach

Borisov³

et al. 2023

J Glob Health

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Background The control of tuberculosis (TB) may benefit from a prospective identification of areas where the incidence may increase in addition to the traditionally identified foci of high incidence. We aimed to identify residential areas with growing tuberculosis incidence rates and assess their significance and stability. Methods We analysed the changes in TB incidence rates using case data georeferenced with spatial granularity to apartment buildings in the territory of Moscow from 2000 to 2019. We identified sparsely distributed areas with significant increases in the incidence rate inside residential areas. We tested the stability of found growth areas to case underreporting via stochastic modelling. Results For 21 350 cases with smear- or culture-positive pulmonary TB among residents from 2000 to 2019, we identified 52 small-scale clusters of growing incidence rate responsible for 1% of all registered cases. We tested clusters of disease growth for underreporting and found them to be relatively unstable to resampling with case drop-out, but their spatial displacement was small. Territories with a stable increase in TB incidence rate were identified and compared to the rest of the city, which is characterised by a significant decrease in incidence. Conclusions Identified areas with a tendency for an increase in the TB incidence rate may be important targets for disease control services.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Identification of growing tuberculosis incidence clusters in a region with a decrease in tuberculosis prevalence in Moscow (2000-2019)

Romanyukha

Karkach

Borisov³

et al. 2023

J Glob Health

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Geo-spatial high-risk clusters of Tuberculosis in the global general population: a systematic review

Teibo,

Andrade,

Rosa

et al. 2023

BMC Public Health

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Introduction The objective of this systematic review is to identify tuberculosis (TB) high-risk among the general population globally. The review was conducted using the following steps: elaboration of the research question, search for relevant publications, selection of studies found, data extraction, analysis, and evidence synthesis. Methods The studies included were those published in English, from original research, presented findings relevant to tuberculosis high-risk across the globe, published between 2017 and 2023, and were based on geospatial analysis of TB. Two reviewers independently selected the articles and were blinded to each other`s comments. The resultant disagreement was resolved by a third blinded reviewer. For bibliographic search, controlled and free vocabularies that address the question to be investigated were used. The searches were carried out on PubMed, LILACS, EMBASE, Scopus, and Web of Science. and Google Scholar. Results A total of 79 published articles with a 40-year study period between 1982 and 2022 were evaluated. Based on the 79 studies, more than 40% of all countries that have carried out geospatial analysis of TB were from Asia, followed by South America with 23%, Africa had about 15%, and others with 2% and 1%. Various maps were used in the various studies and the most used is the thematic map (32%), rate map (26%), map of temporal tendency (20%), and others like the kernel density map (6%). The characteristics of the high-risk and the factors that affect the hotspot’s location are evident through studies related to poor socioeconomic conditions constituting (39%), followed by high population density (17%), climate-related clustering (15%), high-risk spread to neighbouring cities (13%), unstable and non-random cluster (11%). Conclusion There exist specific high-risk for TB which are areas that are related to low socioeconomic conditions and spectacular weather conditions, these areas when well-known will be easy targets for intervention by policymakers. We recommend that more studies making use of spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal analysis be carried out to point out territories and populations that are vulnerable to TB.

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Spatial and temporal analysis and forecasting of TB reported incidence in western China

Zhao,

Zhang,

et al. 2024

BMC Public Health

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Small-scale stable clusters of elevated tuberculosis incidence in Moscow, 2000–2015: Discovery and spatiotemporal analysis

Cited by 4 publications

References 7 publications

Identification of growing tuberculosis incidence clusters in a region with a decrease in tuberculosis prevalence in Moscow (2000-2019)

Identification of growing tuberculosis incidence clusters in a region with a decrease in tuberculosis prevalence in Moscow (2000-2019)

Geo-spatial high-risk clusters of Tuberculosis in the global general population: a systematic review

Spatial and temporal analysis and forecasting of TB reported incidence in western China

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