An approach for estimating the breach probabilities of moraine-dammed lakes in the Chinese Himalayas using remote-sensing data

Xian-bin, Wang; Liu, S.; Ding, Yongjian; Guo, Wei; Jiang, Zongli; Lin, Jian; Han, Yingjie

doi:10.5194/nhess-12-3109-2012

Cited by 98 publications

(100 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Further remote sensing and if necessary in situ observations are needed to assess the possibility of a large-scale GLOF event at this location. Flood simulation using numerical models with accurate downstream topographic data would be ideal to quantify possible damage as demonstrated in [34][35][36].…”

Section: Synthesis Of Multiple Criteriamentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Scale and Potential of GLOF in the Bhutan Himalayas Using a Satellite-Based Integral Glacier–Glacial Lake Inventory

et al. 2017

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Abstract:A comprehensive glacier-glacial lake inventory was developed for the Bhutan Himalayas based on satellite observations between 1987-1990 and 2006-2011. In total, 733 lakes (covering 82.6 km 2 ) were delineated between 4000 and 6000 m a.s.l. and their relationships to associated glaciers were documented. Using this new inventory, the scale and potential for glacial lake outburst flooding (GLOF) based on multiple criteria was examined. This included a history of connectivity characteristics of glacial lakes to mother glaciers, potential flood volumes, and debris-cover of mother glaciers in addition to the conventional criteria of expansion rate and lake size. The majority of the lakes with high expansion rates (more than double in size) and large areas (>0.1 km 2 ) met the conditions of being continuously in contact with a mother debris-covered glacier for nearly 20 years. Based on these multiple criteria, two lakes were identified as having potential for large-scale GLOF. Potentially dangerous glacial lakes listed in the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) study were re-visited, and some overlaps with the glacier-glacial lake inventory were found.

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Section: Synthesis Of Multiple Criteriamentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Scale and Potential of GLOF in the Bhutan Himalayas Using a Satellite-Based Integral Glacier–Glacial Lake Inventory

et al. 2017

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“…Huggel et al (2004) estimate that DWH ratios less than 1 lead to high susceptibility of failure for moraine dams in the Swiss Alps, while moraines with DWH ratios higher than 10 are not commonly expected to fail. Similar DWH ratios (0.6 < DWH < 1.7) represent high-susceptibility thresholds for Himalayan GLOF events (Wang et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 83%

“…From the point of view of geomorphology (moraine volume, shape, and slope stability), moraines with low DWH ratios are more likely to fail (Wang et al, 2012); failure likelihood also increases due to hydraulic parameters of the lake (high potential energy) and poor geotechnical characteristics of the moraine (inner matrix composition).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting outflow induced by moraine failure in glacial lakes: the Lake Palcacocha case from an uncertainty perspective

Rivas

Somos‐Valenzuela

Hodges

et al. 2015

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Moraine dam collapse is one of the causes of glacial lake outburst floods. Available models seek to predict both moraine breach formation and lake outflow. The models depend on hydraulic, erosion, and geotechnical parameters that are mostly unknown or uncertain. This paper estimates the outflow hydrograph caused by a potential erosive collapse of the moraine dam of Lake Palcacocha in Peru and quantifies the uncertainty of the results. The overall aim is to provide a simple yet hydraulically robust approach for calculating the expected outflow hydrographs that is useful for risk assessment studies. To estimate the peak outflow and failure time of the hydrograph, we assessed several available empirical equations based on lake and moraine geometries; each equation has defined confidence intervals for peak flow predictions. Complete outflow hydrographs for each peak flow condition were modeled using a hydraulic simulation model calibrated to match the peak flows estimated with the empirical equations. Failure time and peak flow differences between the simulations, and the corresponding empirical equations were used as error parameters. Along with an expected hydrograph, lower and upper bound hydrographs were calculated for Lake Palcacocha, representing the confidence interval of the results. The approach has several advantages: first, it is simple and robust. Second, it evaluates the capability of empirical equations to reproduce the conditions of the lake and moraine dam. Third, this approach accounts for uncertainty in the hydrographs estimations, which makes it appropriate for risk management studies.

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“…debris cover, glacier surface slope, speed of glacier and condition of glacier) . The size, shape, and locations of such lakes change rapidly as these are unstable and temporary which may survive from a few months to several years (Wang et al 2012). Such lakes accelerate the ablation of glacier ice by draining water through hydro-fracture/cracks to subglacial channels accelerating the melting and disintegration of ice at glacier bottom (Watanabe et al 1995;Reynolds 2000;Benn et al 2001).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Lakes with the steep surrounding terrain, in direct contact or proximity of glacier with potential glacier calving, are considered highly susceptible to outburst Iribarren Anacona et al 2014). For morainedammed lakes, unstable dam geometry, lower freeboard, and steep distal face slope are additional characteristics which increase the probability of outburst of such lakes (Huggel et al 2004;Wang et al 2012). Hence, the identified lakes were further assessed qualitatively in detail for outburst probability by evaluating five key indicators: (i) lake and glacier characteristics, (ii) dam type, (iii) dam geometry, (iv) freeboard, and (v) the potential for lake impacts.…”

Section: Outburst Probability Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Glacial lake changes and outburst flood hazard in Chandra basin, North-Western Indian Himalaya

Prakash

Nagarajan

2018

Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk

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Climatic change-induced glacier recession has been accompanied by formation and growth of proglacial lakes in the Himalayan region, which pose an emerging significant threat to the downstream communities/ settlements in the form of outburst floods. To understand spatiotemporal evolution patterns, sources and driving mechanism of formation and expansion of glacial lakes, a temporal inventory of glacial lakes (area > 2000 m 2 ) in Chandra basin has been developed from 2000 to 2014 using IRS LISS-III images. From 2000 to 2014, the total number of glacial lakes in Chandra basin increased from 28 to 46 and area expanded from 1.91 § 0.24 km 2 to 3.26 § 0.24 km 2 . Glacier recession and increased glacier melt runoff due to climate warming led to the formation and expansion of glacial lakes in space vacated by glacier recession. The increase in number and area of ice-dammed lakes at higher elevations confirms the continued glacier retreat in the basin. Lakes in contact or in the proximity of the mother glacier exhibit higher growth and formation rate. The accelerated growth of glacial lakes has resulted in increased hazard and damage potential of glacial lake outburst floods in Chandra basin. Seven potentially dangerous lakes are identified and analysed qualitatively for outburst probability.

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An approach for estimating the breach probabilities of moraine-dammed lakes in the Chinese Himalayas using remote-sensing data

Cited by 98 publications

References 53 publications

Evaluating the Scale and Potential of GLOF in the Bhutan Himalayas Using a Satellite-Based Integral Glacier–Glacial Lake Inventory

Evaluating the Scale and Potential of GLOF in the Bhutan Himalayas Using a Satellite-Based Integral Glacier–Glacial Lake Inventory

Predicting outflow induced by moraine failure in glacial lakes: the Lake Palcacocha case from an uncertainty perspective

Glacial lake changes and outburst flood hazard in Chandra basin, North-Western Indian Himalaya

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