Abstract. To make first-order estimates of the probability of moraine-dammed lake outburst flood (MDLOF) and prioritize the probabilities of breaching posed by potentially dangerous moraine-dammed lakes (PDMDLs) in the Chinese Himalayas, an objective approach is presented. We first select five indicators to identify PDMDLs according to four predesigned criteria. The climatic background was regarded as the climatic precondition of the moraine-dam failure, and under different climatic preconditions, we distinguish the trigger mechanisms of MDLOFs and subdivide them into 17 possible breach modes, with each mode having three or four components; we combined the precondition, modes and components to construct a decision-making tree of moraine-dam failure. Conversion guidelines were established so as to quantify the probabilities of components of a breach mode employing the historic performance method combined with expert knowledge and experience. The region of the Chinese Himalayas was chosen as a study area where there have been frequent MDLOFs in recent decades. The results show that the breaching probabilities (P ) of 142 PDMDLs range from 0.037 to 0.345, and they can be further categorized as 43 lakes with very high breach probabilities (P ≥ 0.24), 47 lakes with high breach probabilities (0.18 ≤ P < 0.24), 24 lakes with mid-level breach probabilities (0.12 ≤ P < 0.18), 24 lakes with low breach probabilities (0.06 ≤ P < 0.12), and four lakes with very low breach probabilities (p < 0.06).
Abstract. Located in western Inner Mongolia, the Badain Jaran Desert is the second largest desert in China and consists of a regular series of stable megadunes, among which over 70 permanent lakes exist. The unexpected lakes in desert attracted research interests on exploring the hydrological process under this particular landscape; however, a very few literatures exist on the diurnal and spatial variation of the drying front in this area, which is the main issue in the desert hydrological process to characterize the movement of water in soil. In order to understand the drying front in the Badain Jaran Desert, a field campaign was conducted by the observations of soil physical parameters and micrometeorological parameters. With the field data, the performance of a vadose zone soil water balance model, the HYDRUS, was verified and calibrated. Then, the HYDRUS was used to produce the spatial and temporal information of coupled water, water vapour and heat transport in sand to characterize the variation pattern of the drying front before, during and after the rainfall. Finally, the deepest drying front was applied to determine the effective infiltration, which is defined as the amount of soil water captured by the sand beneath the deepest drying front by infiltrating water of an incident rainfall event.
Integrated control systems for vehicle-handling stability are usually based on the steering bifurcation mechanism. The best integrated control performance is obtained by coordinating different control methods. However, in vehicle steering and driving conditions, the coupling characteristics of the longitudinal forces and the lateral forces of the tyres must lead to changes in the bifurcation characteristics. The corresponding vehicle dynamics stability region has to be redetermined. The corresponding integrated control method also needs to be adjusted. Therefore, in combination with the physical significance of the dynamics equilibrium point of the vehicle system, the definition of the driving stability region of the vehicle based on the characteristics of the driving torque and the steering angle bifurcation is proposed. With the concept presented above, the five-degree-of-freedom non-linear vehicle system model for the driving stability region of the vehicle was solved. The simulation results show that, according to the driving stability region of the vehicle, the vehicle dynamics stability with different driving torque inputs and different front-wheel steering-angle inputs can be accurately estimated. The study of the driving stability region of the vehicle is beneficial for engineering applications in non-linear automotive dynamics research. In addition, it provides the theoretical basis for integrated control of the vehicle-handling stability.
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