A new approach to modelling student retention through an application of complexity thinking. This paper has been published by Studies in Higher Education as: Forsman, J., Linder, C., Moll, R., Fraser, D. and Andersson, S. (2014). A new approach to modelling student retention through an application of complexity thinking. Vol. Abstract: Complexity thinking is relatively new to education research and has rarely been used to examine complex issues in physics and engineering education. Issues in higher education such as student retention have been approached from a multiplicity of perspectives and are recognized as complex. The complex system of student retention modelling in higher education was examined to provide an illustrative account of the application of complexity thinking in educational research. Exemplar data was collected from undergraduate physics and related engineering students studying at a traditional Swedish university. The analysis shows how complexity thinking may open up new ways of viewing and analysing complex educational issues in higher education in terms of nested, interdependent and interconnected systems. Whilst not intended to present new findings, the paper does illustrate a possible representation of the system of items related to student retention and how to identify such influential items.
Studies in Higher EducationKeywords: student retention; modelling systems; complexity thinking
Introduction and Research AimComplexity thinking, which is derived from complexity theory, is a powerful conceptual framework in education that draws on the qualities of complex systems to characterize learning systems (e.g. Davis and Sumara 2006). As such, with its organic, non-linear, relational and holistic features, complexity thinking presents a stark point of departure for contemporary educational research thinking (Morrison 2006). Thus, its application in education research is still relatively rare, particularly in higher education contexts, and a variety of good exemplars are hard to find for newcomers contemplating the use of complexity thinking as a conceptual framework. This article uses the field of student retention to provide such an exemplar.When using complexity thinking, qualities such as decentralized network structure and short-range communication between agents can be seen to facilitate emergence of order in seemingly chaotic complex systems. Student retention is a complex system