Agroclimatic potential across central Siberia in an altered twenty-first century

Abstract

Humans have traditionally cultivated steppe and forest-steppe on fertile soils for agriculture. Forests are predicted to shift northwards in a warmer climate and are likely to be replaced by forest-steppe and steppe ecosystems. We analyzed potential climate change impacts on agriculture in south-central Siberia believing that agriculture in traditionally cold Siberia may benefit from warming. Simple models determining crop range and regression models determining crop yields were constructed and applied to climate change scenarios for various time frames : pre-1960, 1960-90 and 1990-2010 using historic data and data taken from 2020 and 2080 HadCM3 B1 and A2 scenarios. From 50 to 85% of central Siberia is predicted to be climatically suitable for agriculture by the end of the century, and only soil potential would limit crop advance and expansion to the north. Crop production could increase twofold. Future Siberian climatic resources could provide the potential for a great variety of crops to grow that previously did not exist on these lands. Traditional Siberian crops could gradually shift as far as 500 km northwards (about 50-70 km/decade) within suitable soil conditions, and new crops nonexistent today may be introduced in the dry south that would necessitate irrigation. Agriculture in central Siberia would likely benefit from climate warming. Adaptation measures would sustain and promote food security in a warmer Siberia.

Potential influence of climate-induced vegetation shifts on future land use and associated land carbon fluxes in Northern Eurasia

“…In both climate scenarios, vegetation shifts further reduce the areas devoted to timber production by 6-8%. In addition, the types of food crops grown in the region may also change and influence global trade as environmental conditions become more favorable for some crops, but less favorable for other crops [62].…”

How do weather and climate influence cropping area and intensity?

“…For instance, the potential contribution of climate change in the last decades to the expansion of cropping area to higher latitudes and altitudes has been hypothesized for a long time and suggested by many studies exploring agro-climatic indices (e.g., growing-season degree-days with a certain base temperature), but few studies have corroborated this hypothesis. For instance, the cropping area in central Siberia approached its peak in 1960-1980 due to growing industrialization and urbanization and decreased after the downfall of the Soviet Union in 1991, although the thermal condition became more suitable for crop production over time (Tchebakova et al, 2011). The cropland expansion in the continental United States in 1850-2000 is mainly attributed to change in the population density, although the biophysical factors, including climate, play a certain role to explain the historical cropland trajectories in some biophysically-marginal regions (Kumar et al, 2012).…”

Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

“…Other attempts to derive probabilistic forecasts of regional climate change include [20,21]. When it comes to climate change impacts over Northern Eurasia, recent studies include rising methane emissions [22], vegetation change [23,24], agroclimatic potential [25] and near-surface permafrost degradation [26]. However, these studies, along with many others focused on Northern Eurasia or other regions, generally rely on a small ensemble of climate simulations that does not cover the full range of uncertainty.…”