Potential influence of climate-induced vegetation shifts on future land use and associated land carbon fluxes in Northern Eurasia

Kicklighter, David W.; Cai, Yan; Zhuang, Qianlai; Parfenova, E. I.; Paltsev, Sergey; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Melillo, Jerry M.; Reilly, John M.; Tchebakova, N. M.; Lü, Xiaoliang

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/035004

Cited by 44 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 91 publications

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“…Many individual processes underlie such changes. Key features are that climate change in interaction with vegetation shifts and fires has the potential to turn the Eurasian carbon sink into a source by 2100 (Kicklighter et al, 2014); that increased temperatures stimulate photosynthesis and productivity (e.g. Magnani et al, 2007;Myneni et al, 1997Myneni et al, , 2001; and that future warming could promote plant growth and forest expansion along the Russian Arctic tree line if water availability will remain sufficient (Devi et al, 2008;MacDonald et al, 2008;Berner et al, 2013).…”

Section: How Might Projected Future Climate Change Impact Russia's Bomentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the whole of the Eurasian continent, Kicklighter et al (2014) projected that biomes will shift northward as a consequence of climate change, with boreal forest encroaching into the northern tundra zone, temperate forests encroaching into the present boreal zone, and steppes encroaching into temperate forests. This would result in a reduction in the boreal forest area by 19% and an increase in the temperate forest area by 258% under a businessas-usual climate scenario; in a low-carbon scenario, boreal forest area would decrease by 2% and temperate forest area increase by 140%, respectively.…”

Section: Vegetation Redistributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This would result in a reduction in the boreal forest area by 19% and an increase in the temperate forest area by 258% under a businessas-usual climate scenario; in a low-carbon scenario, boreal forest area would decrease by 2% and temperate forest area increase by 140%, respectively. This would lead to a 7% net gain, and a 12% gain in forest area, respectively (Kicklighter et al, 2014). Several studies using a bioclimatic model support that vegetation zones will shift northward under climate change (Tchebakova et al, 2009(Tchebakova et al, , 2011Tchebakova and Parfenova, 2012).…”

Section: Vegetation Redistributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Tamm Review: Observed and projected climate change impacts on Russia’s forests and its carbon balance

Schaphoff

Reyer

Schepaschenko

et al. 2016

Forest Ecology and Management

108

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a b s t r a c tRussia's boreal forests provide numerous important ecosystem functions and services, but they are being increasingly affected by climate change. This review presents an overview of observed and potential future climate change impacts on those forests with an emphasis on their aggregate carbon balance and processes driving changes therein. We summarize recent findings highlighting that radiation increases, temperature-driven longer growing seasons and increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations generally enhance vegetation productivity, while heat waves and droughts tend to decrease it. Estimates of major carbon fluxes such as net biome production agree that the Russian forests as a whole currently act as a carbon sink, but these estimates differ in terms of the magnitude of the sink due to different methods and time periods used. Moreover, models project substantial distributional shifts of forest biomes, but they may overestimate the extent to which the boreal forest will shift poleward as past migration rates have been slow. While other impacts of current climate change are already substantial, and projected impacts could be both large-scale and disastrous, the likelihood for a tipping point behavior of Russia's boreal forest is still unquantified. Other substantial research gaps include the large-scale effect of (climate-driven) disturbances such as fires and insect outbreaks, which are expected to increase in the future. We conclude that the impacts of climate change on Russia's boreal forest are often superimposed by other environmental and societal changes in a complex way, and the interaction of these developments could exacerbate both existing and projected future challenges. Hence, development of adaptation and mitigation strategies for Russia's forests is strongly advised.

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Section: How Might Projected Future Climate Change Impact Russia's Bomentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Vegetation Redistributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Vegetation Redistributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Tamm Review: Observed and projected climate change impacts on Russia’s forests and its carbon balance

Schaphoff

Reyer

Schepaschenko

et al. 2016

Forest Ecology and Management

108

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Quantifying carbon fluxes of terrestrial ecosystems to predict current and future carbon sink activity has been a major challenge (Kicklighter et al 2014). One commonly used method to estimate GPP of terrestrial biomes is the canopy light-use efficiency (ε), defined as the ratio of GPP (or NPP) to absorbed light (Kergoat et al 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increased photosynthesis compensates for shorter growing season in subarctic tundra—8 years of snow accumulation manipulations

et al. 2014

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This study was initiated to analyze the effect of increased snow cover on plant photosynthesis in subarctic mires underlain by permafrost. Snow fences were used to increase the accumulation of snow on a subarctic permafrost mire in northern Sweden. By measuring reflected photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) the effect of snow thickness and associated delay of the start of the growing season was assessed in terms of absorbed PAR and estimated gross primary production (GPP). Six plots experienced increased snow accumulation and six plots were untreated. Incoming and reflected PAR was logged hourly from August 2010 to October 2013. In 2010 PAR measurements were coupled with flux chamber measurements to assess GPP and light use efficiency of the plots. The increased snow thickness prolonged the duration of the snow cover in spring. The delay of the growing season start in the treated plots was 18 days in 2011, 3 days in 2012 and 22 days in 2013. Results show higher PAR absorption, together with almost 35 % higher light use efficiency, in treated plots compared to untreated plots. Estimations of GPP suggest that the loss in early season photosynthesis, due to the shortening of the growing season in the treatment plots, is well compensated for by the increased absorption of PAR and higher light use efficiency throughout the whole growing seasons. This compensation is likely to be explained by increased soil moisture and nutrients together with a shift in vegetation composition associated with the accelerated permafrost thaw in the treatment plots.

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“…Climate change refers to the change of the primarily environmental drivers temperature and rainfall (amount, frequency, seasonal distribution), both affecting soil environmental conditions but also site and landscape hydrology, vegetation cover and substrate supply. Land use is also influenced, since farmers will adapt land use and land management as climate changes (Kicklighter et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of global change during the 21st century on the nitrogen cycle

et al. 2015

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Abstract. The global nitrogen (N) cycle at the beginning of the 21st century has been shown to be strongly influenced by the inputs of reactive nitrogen (N r ) from human activities, including combustion-related NO x , industrial and agricultural N fixation, estimated to be 220 Tg N yr −1 in 2010, which is approximately equal to the sum of biological N fixation in unmanaged terrestrial and marine ecosystems. According to current projections, changes in climate and land use during the 21st century will increase both biological and anthropogenic fixation, bringing the total to approximately 600 Tg N yr −1 by around 2100. The fraction contributed directly by human activities is unlikely to increase substantially if increases in nitrogen use efficiency in agriculture are achieved and control measures on combustion-related emissions implemented.Some N-cycling processes emerge as particularly sensitive to climate change. One of the largest responses to climate in the processing of N r is the emission to the atmosphere of NH 3 , which is estimated to increase from 65 Tg N yr −1 in 2008 to 93 Tg N yr −1 in 2100 assuming a change in global surface temperature of 5 • C in the absence of increased anthropogenic activity. With changes in emissions in response to increased demand for animal products the combined effect would be to increase NH 3 emissions to 135 Tg N yr −1 . Another major change is the effect of climate changes on aerosol composition and specifically the increased sublimation of NH 4 NO 3 close to the ground to form HNO 3 and NH 3 in a warmer climate, which deposit more rapidly to terrestrial surfaces than aerosols. Inorganic aerosols over the polluted regions especially in Europe and North America were dominated by (NH 4 ) 2 SO 4 in the 1970s to 1980s, and large reductions in emissions of SO 2 have removed most of the SO 2− 4 from the atmosphere in these regions. Inorganic aerosols from anthropogenic emissions are now dominated by NH 4 NO 3 , a volatile aerosol which contributes substantially to PM 10 and human health effects globally as well as eutrophication and climate effects. The volatility of NH 4 NO 3 and rapid dry deposition of the vapour phase dissociation Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. D. Fowler et al.: Effects of global change during the 21st century on the nitrogen cycleproducts, HNO 3 and NH 3 , is estimated to be reducing the transport distances, deposition footprints and inter-country exchange of N r in these regions.There have been important policy initiatives on components of the global N cycle. These have been regional or country-based and have delivered substantial reductions of inputs of N r to sensitive soils, waters and the atmosphere. To date there have been no attempts to develop a global strategy to regulate human inputs to the nitrogen cycle. However, considering the magnitude of global N r use, potential future increases, and the very large leakage of N r in many forms to soils, waters and the atmosphere, international action is re...

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Potential influence of climate-induced vegetation shifts on future land use and associated land carbon fluxes in Northern Eurasia

Cited by 44 publications

References 91 publications

Tamm Review: Observed and projected climate change impacts on Russia’s forests and its carbon balance

Tamm Review: Observed and projected climate change impacts on Russia’s forests and its carbon balance

Increased photosynthesis compensates for shorter growing season in subarctic tundra—8 years of snow accumulation manipulations

Effects of global change during the 21st century on the nitrogen cycle

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