Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Schlosser, Adam; Scott, J.W.; Gao, Xiang

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/045008

Cited by 28 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 39 publications

(63 reference statements)

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“…Consequently, direct use of the GCM outputs to model the inter-annual variation is not recommended in Mekong River Basin. Similar results also appeared in North America (Sheffield et al 2013), Northwest US (Rupp et al 2013), China (You et al 2014), Northern Eurasia (Erwan et al 2013) and Australia (Lewis and Karoly 2013), etc. It is mainly because the process of climate change is too complex and our understanding about the climate system is still incomplete.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 77%

Multi-model ensemble simulation and projection in the climate change in the Mekong River Basin. Part I: temperature

Huang

Wang

et al. 2014

Environ Monit Assess

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This paper evaluates the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating annual and decadal temperature in the Mekong River Basin from 1950 to 2005. By use of Bayesian multi-model averaging method, the future projection of temperature variation under different scenarios are also analyzed. The results show, the performances of climate model are more accurate in space than time, the model can catch the warming characteristics in the Mekong river Basin, but the accuracy of simulation is not good enough. Bayesian multi-model averaging method can improve the annual and decadal temperature simulation when compared to a single result. The projected temperature in Mekong River will increase by 0.88 °C/100 year, 2.15 °C/100 year and 4.96 °C/100 year for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, over the twenty-first century. The findings will be beneficial for local people and policy-maker to formulate regional strategies against the potential menaces of warming scenarios.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 77%

Multi-model ensemble simulation and projection in the climate change in the Mekong River Basin. Part I: temperature

Huang

Wang

et al. 2014

Environ Monit Assess

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“…Climate change impacts on peatlands are complicated by combined impacts of warming and consequently increased evapotranspiration in warmer conditions and changing precipitation patterns, which will likely increase annually some years after warming begins (IPCC, ; Monier, Sokolov, Schlosser, Scott, & Gao, ). However, this is difficult to predict and will likely be regionally variable and more extreme than current conditions (Donat, Lowry, Alexander, O'Gorman, & Maher, ; IPCC, ; Knapp et al., ; Monier et al., ). These combined factors mean that there is a possible drying effect before an increase in precipitation and that there may be long periods of drought between precipitation events.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Responses of peatland vegetation to 15‐year water level drawdown as mediated by fertility level

Kokkonen

Laine

et al. 2019

J Vegetation Science

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Questions Peatland ecosystems are a globally important carbon storage that is predicted to turn into a carbon source due to water level drawdown (WLD) associated with climate change. The predictions assume stable plant communities but how realistic is this assumption? If the vegetation is not stable, what are the nature and rate of changes? Location Peatland complex in Southern Finland. Methods We conducted a water level drawdown (WLD of ~10 cm) experiment over 17 years in three peatland types differing in their fertility. On each peatland type, we included an adjacent forestry drained (FD, with water table ca. 40 cm lower than in control) area for comparison. Results Peatland type had a clear impact on the response to WLD: at the ecosystem level, the two minerotrophic fens underwent rapid species turnover, while the vegetation in nutrient‐poor bog was more resilient to change. In nutrient‐rich sites, WLD initiated tree canopy development and created understorey conditions that strengthened impact of WLD. In nutrient‐poor site, tree establishment was seen only in the FD area. In addition to high nutrient level, high wetness accelerated change at the plant community level, where we found three types of responses: accelerating change, decelerating change, and stability. Succession resulted in an overall loss of community heterogeneity. Conclusions Interaction between hydrology, nutrient availability, and biological factors in boreal peatlands is important: the drop in water table required to achieve the shift from open peatland to forested system is inversely proportional to the nutrient level of the system. The results suggest that predictive models of peatland functions under climate change should consider compositional change for fens and their diverse plant communities but are more realistic for bogs. The response of bog vegetation to climate change may, however, be more dependent on changes in rainfall regime and therefore needs to be further addressed.

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“…Around 4 million km 2 of peatlands, with a peat C stock of 500 AE 100 Gt (Yu, 2012), are found in northern latitudes, where future-climate models predict an increase in mean annual temperature (IPCC 2013). Recent studies also predict increasing precipitation (Arzhanov, Eliseev, & Mokhov, 2012;Monier, Sokolov, Schlosser, Scott, & Gao, 2013) that may be realized later than the warming (Monier et al, 2013). Summer precipitation could increase or decrease depending on region (Roshydromet 2014;Screen, 2013) and warming as such may bring about a water-level drawdown (WLD) in peatlands (Gorham, 1991;Roulet, Moore, Bubier, & Lafleur, 1992).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Responses of phenology and biomass production of boreal fens to climate warming under different water‐table level regimes

Mäkiranta

Laiho

Mehtätalo

et al. 2017

Global Change Biology

123

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Climate change affects peatlands directly through increased air temperatures and indirectly through changes in water-table level (WL). The interactions of these two still remain poorly known. We determined experimentally the separate and interactive effects of temperature and WL regime on factors of relevance for the inputs to the carbon cycle: plant community composition, phenology, biomass production, and shoot:root allocation in two wet boreal sedge-dominated fens, "southern" at 62°N and "northern" at 68°Ν. Warming (1.5°C higher average daily air temperature) was induced with open-top chambers and WL drawdown (WLD; 3-7 cm on average) by shallow ditches. Total biomass production varied from 250 to 520 g/m , with belowground production comprising 25%-63%. Warming was associated with minor effects on phenology and negligible effects on community composition, biomass production, and allocation. WLD clearly affected the contribution of different plant functional types (PFTs) in the community and the biomass they produced: shrubs benefited while forbs and mosses suffered. These responses did not depend on the warming treatment. Following WLD, aboveground biomass production decreased mainly due to reduced growth of mosses in the southern fen. Aboveground vascular plant biomass production remained unchanged but the contribution of different PFTs changed. The observed changes were also reflected in plant phenology, with different PFTs showing different responses. Belowground production increased following WLD in the northern fen only, but an increase in the contributions of shrubs and forbs was observed in both sites, while sedge contribution decreased. Moderate warming alone seems not able to drive significant changes in plant productivity or community composition in these wet ecosystems. However, if warming is accompanied by even modest WL drawdown, changes should be expected in the relative contribution of PFTs, which could lead to profound changes in the function of fens. Consequently, hydrological scenarios are of utmost importance when estimating their future function.

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Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

Cited by 28 publications

References 39 publications

Multi-model ensemble simulation and projection in the climate change in the Mekong River Basin. Part I: temperature

Multi-model ensemble simulation and projection in the climate change in the Mekong River Basin. Part I: temperature

Responses of peatland vegetation to 15‐year water level drawdown as mediated by fertility level

Responses of phenology and biomass production of boreal fens to climate warming under different water‐table level regimes

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