Agricultural Transformation, Nutrition Transition and Food Policy in Africa: Preston Curves Reveal New Stylised Facts

Abstract

This paper uses a Preston Curve approach to test for changes over time in agriculture, nutrition and food policy, comparing national averages in Africa and elsewhere at each level of national income per capita from the 1990s to the 2010s. Our statistical tests and data visualisations reveal that, at each level of income, African countries have faster rural population growth, a larger share of workers in agriculture and lower agricultural labour productivity than countries elsewhere, with no significant shift in these patterns from the 1990s to the 2010s. In contrast, there have been structural shifts towards less child stunting everywhere, and towards more adult obesity in high-income countries. The overall pattern of African governments’ food policies and government expenditures have not shifted, however, as they continue price interventions and low investment levels characteristic of low-income countries around the world.

Policy-Making for Sustainable Empowerment and Poverty Reduction Scheme in Nigeria

“…This is consistent with Berkhout et al (2018) generic submission that elite groups divert more public resources for their own benefit when given a chance. Also, finding is consistent with the finding of (Masters et al 2018) that even if economic development proceeds rapidly in urban Africa, rural Africans will face continued impoverishment unless government interventions change to improve the lives of people working in agriculture at a low productivity levels. The outcome of failed conceptual promise of empowerment is rooted in the implementation process.…”

Nutrition transition in Zambia: Changing food supply, food prices, household consumption, diet and nutrition outcomes

“…On the supply side, action will involve promoting diversity in the production of nutrient-rich foods such as fruits, vegetables and pulses (beyond soya for animal feed or export), and supporting supply chains which make these accessible and affordable. This requires an agricultural transformation, characterised as systematic changes in farm production and food markets observed alongside economic development, seen at a similar stage of economic change to the nutrition transition (Masters et al 2016). How to address the negative forces of globalization and commerce in a changing food landscape while maintaining the positive forces is still not fully understood, even in high-income countries which are further along the nutrition transition.…”

The structural transformation of African agriculture and rural spaces: introduction to a special section†

“…National‐level stunting rates have improved sharply over time at all income levels in Africa, between the 1980s and the 2000s, but obesity rates do not appear to have increased, remaining significantly lower than among non‐African countries at comparably low income levels, although they exhibit a strong, positive income gradient (Masters et al. ). This nutritional transition is now becoming apparent in the fastest growing African economies.…”