Aging Human Populations: Good for Us, Good for the Earth

Götmark, Frank; Cafaro, Philip; O’Sullivan, Jane

doi:10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.015

Cited by 55 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…They are also more at risk in WUI fires. This is expected to be an increasing challenge when elderly in increasing numbers are aging in place [61,62].…”

Section: Expected Climate Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reducing Wooden Structure and Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Disaster Risk through Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management

Log

Vandvik

Velle

et al. 2020

ASI

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In recent years, severe and deadly wildland-urban interface (WUI) fires have resulted in an increased focus on this particular risk to humans and property, especially in Canada, USA, Australia, and countries in the Mediterranean area. Also, in areas not previously accustomed to wildfires, such as boreal areas in Sweden, Norway, and in the Arctic, WUI fires have recently resulted in increasing concern. January 2014, the most severe wooden town fire in Norway since 1923 raged through Laerdalsøyri. Ten days later, a wildfire raged through the scattered populated community of Flatanger and destroyed even more structures. These fires came as a surprise to the fire brigades and the public. We describe and analyze a proposed way forward for exploring if and how this increasing fire incidence can be linked to concomitant changes in climate, land-use, and habitat management; and then aim at developing new dynamic adaptive fire risk assessment and management tools. We use coastal Norway as an example and focus on temporal changes in fire risk in wooden structure settlements and in the Norwegian Calluna vulgaris L. dominated WUI. In this interface, the fire risk is now increasing due to a combination of land-use changes, resulting in large areas of early successional vegetation with an accumulation of biomass, and the interactive effects of climatic changes resulting in increased drought risk. We propose a novel bow-tie framework to explore fire risk and preventive measures at various timescales (years, months, weeks, hours) as a conceptual model for exploring risk contributing factors and possibilities for risk management. Ignition is the top event of the bow-tie which has the potential development towards a fire disaster as a worst case outcome. The bow-tie framework includes factors such as changes in the built environment and natural habitat fuel moisture content due to the weather conditions, WUI fuel accumulation, possibly improved ecosystem management, contribution by civic prescribed burner groups, relevant fire risk modeling, and risk communication to the fire brigades and the public. We propose an interdisciplinary research agenda for developing this framework and improving the current risk understanding, risk communication, and risk management. This research agenda will represent important contributions in paving the road for fire disaster prevention in Norway, and may provide a model for other systems and regions.

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“…They are also more at risk in WUI fires. This is expected to be an increasing challenge when elderly in increasing numbers are aging in place [61,62].…”

Section: Expected Climate Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reducing Wooden Structure and Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Disaster Risk through Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management

Log

Vandvik

Velle

et al. 2020

ASI

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“…A problem inherent to lower fertility rates and a decreasing population is that countries will move through a period where the effects of an ageing population could lead to serious challenges for healthcare programs and public pensions (Ezeh et al 2012). Yet, since reaching a lower population is an undeniable necessity, it is preferable to face these challenges directly rather than trying to delay it through pro-natalist policies (Götmark et al 2018). Several solutions are possible to address these challenges (Smeeding 2014) but will necessarily require many social adjustments such as extending retirement age or raising taxes.…”

Section: Potential Solutions To Address Environmental Issues Through mentioning

confidence: 99%

Growth in human population and consumption both need to be addressed to reach an ecologically sustainable future

Ganivet¹

2019

Environ Dev Sustain

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Nowadays, human activities are causing an important collapse in global biodiversity while also affecting the global climate considerably. Despite historical agreements on both biodiversity conservation and climate change, humanity keeps changing the face of the planet at an increasing rate. An undisputed factor in global change is the excessive and growing human consumption. On the other hand, it seems that linking humanity's environmental impact with population growth has been quite controversial in the international debate, as if, somehow, biodiversity loss and climate change were unconnected to it. To this purpose, this paper reviews (1) the impacts of continuing human population growth on global biodiversity and climate through the examples of food and energy production, (2) changing perceptions about population growth and (3) the potential solutions that could be used to address this issue. Despite not the only factor, the research reviewed in this paper highlights that continuing population growth plays a substantial global role in the destruction of biodiversity and in climate change, and this role urgently needs more attention in scientific, policy and public circles. Both unsustainable population levels and excessive consumption are part of the equation and must be addressed concurrently in developing and developed countries. Several non-coercive strategies are possible to address the population question, mostly through access to education and contraception, in order to empower women through the basic human right to have children by choice. In any case, although limiting population growth may not be the only solution required to fix current environmental problems, ignoring it is likely to hinder any ecologically sustainable future.

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“…Although a few analysts see low fertility and smaller populations as part of the natural evolution of successful societies (Matanle 2017;Götmark et al 2018), most policy-makers see them as problems to be fought (European Commission 2014). Low fertility rates have induced EU nations to make a variety of attempts to raise them, including bonuses and tax breaks for having more children, and more gener-ous provision of child care services.…”

Section: Fertility Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Policy-based Population Projections for the European Union: A Complementary Approach

Cafaro

Dérer

2019

CPoS

Self Cite

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We present new population projections out to 2100 for the countries of the European Union and for the EU as a whole under a wide range of fertility and migration scenarios. As policy-based projections rather than forecasts, they aspire not to maximize predictive success regarding future demographic developments, but to accurately show the impact of different migration and socio-economic policy choices on population numbers. Our chief aim is to clarify those policy choices for European citizens and policymakers. We show that demographic policies have the potential to markedly increase or decrease future populations across the EU. Migration policy offers greater scope for influencing future population numbers than policies aimed at influencing national fertility rates. In countries with particularly low fertility rates or high emigration levels, egalitarian economic and family support policies have the potential to limit future population decreases to a significant extent, especially in combination. In most cases, EU nations are well placed to stabilize or slowly reduce their populations by continuing status quo policies or with moderate changes. Thus they are well placed to achieve one of the necessary conditions for creating ecologically sustainable societies.

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Aging Human Populations: Good for Us, Good for the Earth

Cited by 55 publications

References 54 publications

Reducing Wooden Structure and Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Disaster Risk through Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management

Reducing Wooden Structure and Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Disaster Risk through Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management

Growth in human population and consumption both need to be addressed to reach an ecologically sustainable future

Policy-based Population Projections for the European Union: A Complementary Approach

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