Accuracy of energy-use surveys in predicting rural mini-grid user consumption

Blodgett, Courtney; Dauenhauer, Peter; Louie, Henry; Kickham, Lauren

doi:10.1016/j.esd.2017.08.002

Cited by 84 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Considering demand profiles in this study would have caused large uncertainties; load profile estimations are available for specific locations in WA, see e.g. [70], but subject to high uncertainty, as is widely the case in rural settings in developing economies [71], and poised to undergo substantial changes as energy demand rises across WA. Further, demand management by shifting certain flexible loads to specific times can also be an option [56].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new approach for assessing synergies of solar and wind power: implications for West Africa

Sterl

Liersch

Koch

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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West African countries' energy and climate policies show a pronounced focus on decarbonising power supply through renewable electricity (RE) generation. In particular, most West African states explicitly focus on hybrid mixes of variable renewable power sources-solar, wind and hydropower-in their targets for the electricity sector. Hydropower, the main current RE resource in West Africa, is strongly sensitive to monsoon rainfall variability, which has led to power crises in the past. Therefore, solar and wind power could play a stronger role in the future as countries move to power systems with high shares of RE. Considering the policy focus on diversified RE portfolios, there is a strong need to provide climate services for assessing how these resources could function together in a power mix. In this study, climate data from the state-of-the-art ERA5 reanalysis is used to assess the synergies of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power potential in West Africa at hourly resolution. A new metric, the stability coefficientC stab , is developed to quantify the synergies of solar PV and wind power for achieving a balanced power output and limiting storage needs. Using this metric, it is demonstrated that there is potential for exploiting hybrid solar/wind power in a larger area of West Africa, covering more important centers of population and closer to existing grid structures, than would be suggested by average maps of solar and wind resource availability or capacity factor for the region. The results of this study highlight why multi-scale temporal synergies of power mixes should be considered in RE system planning from the start.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new approach for assessing synergies of solar and wind power: implications for West Africa

Sterl

Liersch

Koch

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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show abstract

“…However, research surveys for predicting electricity consumptions can be error-prone. As high as 426 Wh/day per consumer of mean absolute error has been observed over a study of eight rural minigrids in Kenya (Blodgett et al 2017). Hartvigsson and Ahlgren (2018) compare the load profiles in a minigrid from interviews as well as measured data.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stochastic load profile construction for the multi-tier framework for household electricity access using off-grid DC appliances

et al. 2018

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To improve access to electricity, decentralized, solar-based off-grid solutions like Solar Home Systems (SHSs) and rural micro-grids have recently seen a prolific growth. However, electrical load profiles, usually the first step in determining the electrical sizing of off-grid energy systems, are often nonexistent or unreliable, especially when looking at the hitherto un(der)-electrified communities. This paper aims to construct load profiles at the household level for each tier of electricity access as set forth by the multi-tier framework (MTF) for measuring household electricity access. The loads comprise dedicated offgrid appliances, including the so-called super-efficient ones that are increasingly being used by SHSs, reflecting the off-grid appliance market's remarkable evolution in terms of efficiency and price. This study culminated in devising a stochastic, bottom-up load The original version of this article was revised: Figure 5 image top right legends, the solid black line was defined "CF" and the broken blue line was described "CF" too. The figure image was updated to correct the mistake.

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“…The consumption changes in the systems, many of which are have been operating for 3 years or more, may have invalidated a design which was originally "optimal". This observation points to the need for dedicated study of consumption over time and, when designing systems, more sophisticated demand modeling or use of comparable datasets especially considering the high potential error involved with energy use surveys [53].…”

Section: Figmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainability evaluation of community-based, solar photovoltaic projects in Malawi

et al. 2020

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Background: A novel project sustainability framework is used to evaluate 65 off-grid solar photovoltaic (PV) energy system projects in Malawi. This study addresses PV projects serving rural public facilities, a solution known to have had historical issues with poor sustainability. A recent countrywide program targeting such facilities was evaluated against existing projects to determine whether this latest iteration offered better results. Method: Sustainability is defined at the project-level with metrics justified under the main themes of technical, economic, social, and organizational. Data captured for each project is based on a custom survey and interview of key stakeholders. Projects are grouped according to age, project implementer, income level, and PV system size to compare relative results. Results: The sustainability outlook for each project is evaluated. We find sustainability for most projects to be low. Social sustainability was weak with many projects due to low local community stakeholder engagement in terms of numbers of stakeholders, meeting frequency, and community contributions. Organizational challenges included a lack of key management positions in place and extremely limited training provisions. Furthermore, the evaluation highlights the economic health of the system to be key to sustainability, with the "healthiest" projects affording only 37% of expected operations and maintenance costs. Relative to expected demand, systems were found to be undersized for both panels (53% of required) and batteries (57%). Users reported achieving only 60% of their desired consumption. Poor sizing standards related to the lack of load profiles for first-time electricity users as well as poor quality components reduced the overall technical sustainability. Conclusion: Rural public facilities with solar PV in Malawi are not well served by isolated community management. Improved sustainability requires the establishment of a robust financial framework prior to project development that includes formal local government support. This paper discusses ideal management frameworks and their ultimate implications for project developers, policy makers, and the research community.

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Accuracy of energy-use surveys in predicting rural mini-grid user consumption

Cited by 84 publications

References 27 publications

A new approach for assessing synergies of solar and wind power: implications for West Africa

A new approach for assessing synergies of solar and wind power: implications for West Africa

Stochastic load profile construction for the multi-tier framework for household electricity access using off-grid DC appliances

Sustainability evaluation of community-based, solar photovoltaic projects in Malawi

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