Abrupt transitions in the NAO control of explosive North Atlantic cyclone development

Gómara, Íñigo; Rodríguez‐Fonseca, Belén; Zurita‐Gotor, Pablo; Ulbrich, Sven; Pinto, Joaquim G.

doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3015-9

Cited by 23 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 110 publications

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“…Zubiate et al () and Comas‐Bru and McDermott () also find a positive correlation with the NAO over northern Europe ( r = 0.7 to 0.8, 95% level), but they find a significant negative correlation ( r =− 0.2 to −0.6, 95% level) over southern Europe, the boundary of which varies from 44°N to 50°N, respectively. Gómara et al () also find periods of decoupling when NAO‐cyclone correlation rapidly switches, suggesting that this correlation is nonstationary at multidecadal time scales.…”

Section: Atmospheric Hazardsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Correlations Between Extreme Atmospheric Hazards and Global Teleconnections: Implications for Multihazard Resilience

Steptoe

Jones

Fox

2018

Reviews of Geophysics

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Occurrences of concurrent extreme atmospheric hazards represent a significant area of uncertainty for organizations involved in disaster mitigation and risk management. Understanding risks posed by natural disasters and their relationship with global climate drivers is crucial in preparing for extreme events. In this review we quantify the strength of the physical mechanisms linking hazards and atmosphere‐ocean processes. We demonstrate how research from the science community may be used to support disaster risk reduction and global sustainable development efforts. We examine peer‐reviewed literature connecting 16 regions affected by extreme atmospheric hazards and eight key global drivers of weather and climate. We summarize current understanding of multihazard disaster risk in each of these regions and identify aspects of the global climate system that require further investigation to strengthen our resilience in these areas. We show that some drivers can increase the risk of concurrent hazards across different regions. Organizations that support disaster risk reduction, or underwrite exposure, in multiple regions may have a heightened risk of facing multihazard losses. We find that 15 regional hazards share connections via the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, with the Indian Ocean Dipole, North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Southern Annular Mode being secondary sources of significant regional interconnectivity. From a hazard perspective, rainfall over China shares the most connections with global drivers and has links to both Northern and Southern Hemisphere modes of variability. We use these connections to assess the global likelihood of concurrent hazard occurrence in support of multihazard resilience and disaster risk reduction goals.

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Section: Atmospheric Hazardsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Correlations Between Extreme Atmospheric Hazards and Global Teleconnections: Implications for Multihazard Resilience

Steptoe

Jones

Fox

2018

Reviews of Geophysics

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“…Over the North Atlantic ocean, the number of explosive cyclogenesis events is modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with positive NAO favoring a larger number of ECs due to stronger atmospheric baroclinicity ). Large-scale heat convergence linked with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is also thought to influence atmospheric baroclinicity and modulate EC activity (Gómara et al, 2016). While these atmospheric and ocean conditions are mostly linked with the number of ECs developing, the strength, intensification and trajectory of the ECs are known for being directly influenced by upper ocean conditions (Kuwano- Yoshida and Minobe, 2017), with their genesis often associated with oceanic frontal systems.…”

Section: Extratropical Bomb Cyclonesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ocean Observations in Support of Studies and Forecasts of Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones

et al. 2019

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Over the past decade, measurements from the climate-oriented ocean observing system have been key to advancing the understanding of extreme weather events that originate and intensify over the ocean, such as tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical bomb cyclones (ECs). In order to foster further advancements to predict and better understand these extreme weather events, a need for a dedicated observing system component specifically to support studies and forecasts of TCs and ECs has been identified, but such a system has not yet been implemented. New technologies, pilot networks, targeted deployments of instruments, and state-of-the art coupled numerical models have enabled advances in research and forecast capabilities and illustrate a potential framework for future development. Here, applications and key results made possible by the different ocean observing efforts in support of studies and forecasts of TCs and ECs, as well as recent advances in observing technologies and strategies are reviewed. Then a vision and specific recommendations for the next decade are discussed.

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“…No further filtering is applied to the fields, as the aim is to focus on interannual variability, and potential lower-frequency oscillations (e.g., decadal, multi-decadal) are hard to detect over a period of just 26 years. For the same reason, it is also assumed that teleconnections are stationary during the study period, despite it does not seem to be the case when longer intervals are considered over specific areas: e.g., West Africa (Mohino et al 2011c), the Tropical Atlantic (Rodríguez-Fonseca et al 2009;, the extra-tropical North Atlantic (López-Parages and Rodríguez-Fonseca 2012; Raible et al 2014;Gómara et al 2016), etc.…”

Section: Empirical Orthogonal Functions and Maximum Covariance Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of dynamical regionalization on precipitation biases and teleconnections over West Africa

et al. 2017

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West African societies are highly dependent on the West African Monsoon (WAM). Thus, a correct representation of the WAM in climate models is of paramount importance. In this article, the ability of 8 CMIP5 historical General Circulation Models (GCMs) and 4 CORDEX-Africa Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to characterize the WAM dynamics and variability is assessed for the period July-August-September 1979-2004. Simulations are compared with observations. Uncertainties in RCM performance and lateral boundary conditions are assessed individually. Results show that both GCMs and RCMs have trouble to simulate the northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in boreal summer. The greatest bias improvements are obtained after regionalization of the most inaccurate GCM simulations. To assess WAM variability, a Maximum Covariance Analysis is performed between Sea Surface Temperature and precipitation anomalies in observations, GCM and RCM simulations. The assessed variability patterns are: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the eastern Mediterranean (MED); and the Atlantic Equatorial Mode (EM). Evidence is given that regionalization of the ENSO-WAM teleconnection does not provide any added value. Unlike GCMs, RCMs are unable to precisely represent the ENSO impact on air subsidence over West Africa. Contrastingly, the simulation of the MED-WAM teleconnection is improved after regionalization. Humidity advection and convergence over the Sahel area are better simulated by RCMs. Finally, no robust conclusions can be determined for the EM-WAM teleconnection, which cannot be isolated for the 1979-2004 period. The novel results in this article will help to select the most appropriate RCM simulations to study WAM teleconnections.

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Abrupt transitions in the NAO control of explosive North Atlantic cyclone development

Cited by 23 publications

References 110 publications

Correlations Between Extreme Atmospheric Hazards and Global Teleconnections: Implications for Multihazard Resilience

Correlations Between Extreme Atmospheric Hazards and Global Teleconnections: Implications for Multihazard Resilience

Ocean Observations in Support of Studies and Forecasts of Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones

Impact of dynamical regionalization on precipitation biases and teleconnections over West Africa

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