In this paper, a simplified moist general circulation model is developed and used to study changes in the atmospheric general circulation as the water vapor content of the atmosphere is altered. The key elements of the model physics are gray radiative transfer, in which water vapor and other constituents have no effect on radiative fluxes, a simple diffusive boundary layer with prognostic depth, and a mixed layer aquaplanet surface boundary condition. This GCM can be integrated stably without a convection parameterization, with large-scale condensation only, and this study focuses on this simplest version of the model. These simplifications provide a useful framework in which to focus on the interplay between latent heat release and large-scale dynamics. In this paper, the authors study the role of moisture in determining the tropospheric static stability and midlatitude eddy scale. In a companion paper, the effects of moisture on energy transports by baroclinic eddies are discussed. The authors vary a parameter in the Clausius–Clapeyron relation to control the amount of water in the atmosphere, and consider circulations ranging from the dry limit to 10 times a control value. The typical length scale of midlatitude eddies is found to be remarkably insensitive to the amount of moisture in the atmosphere in this model. The Rhines scale evaluated at the latitude of the maximum eddy kinetic energy fits the model results for the eddy scale well. Moist convection is important in determining the extratropical lapse rate, and the dry stability is significantly increased with increased moisture content.

This paper discusses the possible response of the large-scale atmospheric structure to a warmer climate. Using integrations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) in conjunction with physical arguments, we try to identify what changes are likely to be robust and what the underlying mechanisms might be. We focus on the large-scale zonallyaveraged circulation, in particular on height of the tropopause, the strength and position of the surface westerlies and the strength and extent of the Hadley Cell. We present analytic arguments and numerical calculations that suggest that under global warming the height of the tropopause will increase in both the transient response and final equilibrium state, and an increase is clearly found in all the comprehensive models in CMIP5. Upper stratospheric cooling is also found in the comprehensive models, and this too can be explained by a radiative argument. Regarding the circulation, most models show a slight expansion and weakening of the Hadley Cell, depending on season and hemisphere. The expansion is small and largely confined to winter but with some expansion in Southern Hemisphere summer. The weakening occurs principally in Northern Hemisphere but the intermodel scatter is large. There is also a general polewards shift in surface westerlies, but the changes are small and again are little larger than the inter-model variability in the change. This shift is positively correlated with the Hadley Cell expansion to a degree that depends somewhat on the metric chosen for the latter. There is a robust strengthening in the Southern Hemisphere surface winds across seasons. In the Northern Hemisphere there is a slight strengthening in the westerlies in most models in winter but a consistent weakening of the westerlies in summer. We present various physical arguments concerning these circulation changes but none that are both demonstrably correct and that account for the model results. We conclude that the above-mentioned large-scale thermodynamic/radiative changes in the large-scale atmospheric structure are generally robust, in the sense of being both well understood and consistently reproduced by comprehensive models. In that sense the dynamical changes are less robust given the current state of knowledge and simulation, although one cannot conclude that they are, in principle, unknowable or less predictable.

A simplified moist general circulation model is used to study changes in the meridional transport of moist static energy by the atmosphere as the water vapor content is increased. The key assumptions of the model are gray radiation, with water vapor and other constituents having no effect on radiative transfer, and mixed layer aquaplanet boundary conditions, implying that the atmospheric meridional energy transport balances the net radiation at the top of the atmosphere. These simplifications allow the authors to isolate the effect of moisture on energy transports by baroclinic eddies in a relatively simple setting.The authors investigate the partition of moist static energy transport in the model into dry static energy and latent energy transports as water vapor concentrations are increased, by varying a constant in the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. The increase in the poleward moisture flux is rather precisely compensated by a reduction in the dry static energy flux. These results are interpreted with diffusive energy balance models (EBMs). The simplest of these is an analytic model that has the property of exact invariance of total energy flux as the moisture content is changed, but the assumptions underlying this model are not accurately satisfied by the GCM. A more complex EBM that includes expressions for the diffusivity, length scale, velocity scale, and latitude of maximum baroclinic eddy activity provides a better fit to the GCM's behavior.

In this review, we highlight the complementary relationship between simple and comprehensive models in addressing key scientific questions to describe Earth's atmospheric circulation. The systematic representation of models in steps, or hierarchies, connects our understanding from idealized systems to comprehensive models and ultimately the observed atmosphere. We define three interconnected principles that can be used to characterize the model hierarchies of the atmosphere. We explore the rich diversity within the governing equations in the dynamical hierarchy, the ability to isolate and understand atmospheric processes in the process hierarchy, and the importance of the physical domain and resolution in the hierarchy of scale. We center our discussion on the large‐scale circulation of the atmosphere and its interaction with clouds and convection, focusing on areas where simple models have had a significant impact. Our confidence in climate model projections of the future is based on our efforts to ground the climate predictions in fundamental physical understanding. This understanding is, in part, possible due to the hierarchies of idealized models that afford the simplicity required for understanding complex systems.