A Zero-Inflated Ordered Probit Model to Analyze Hazmat Truck Drivers’ Violation Behavior and Associated Risk Factors

Abstract

There are few studies on the violation of truck drivers, especially the hazmat truck driver, although truck driver's violation may cause serious casualties. This paper aims to investigate hazmat truck drivers' violation behavior and identify associated risk factors. Different data sources in intelligent transportation system (ITS) including hazmat transportation management system and traffic safety management system are extracted and emerged together. Three years (2016-2018) of violation data that comprised 11612 trip record in China are employed in this research. Based on Bayesian theory, this study proposes zero-inflated ordered probit (ZIOP) model and three alternative models to exploring the relationship between hazmat truck drivers' violation frequency and the key risk factors. The results show that ZIOP model can handle excessive zero observation problem of violation data properly and differentiate between 'alwayszero group' drivers and drivers who did not violate the traffic rules during research period but would do so in different surroundings. The results also indicate that the violation probability and the violation frequency level of hazmat truck drivers are influenced by driver characteristics, freight order attributes, and drivers' violation records. This research provides guidance for driving training and safety education of hazmat truck drivers, and will be helpful in building better driving simulation models.

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