A two‐parameter scheme for tsunami hazard zoning

Go, C. N.; Кайстренко, В. М.; Simonov, Konstantin

doi:10.1080/15210608509379539

Cited by 15 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 1 publication

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Similarly, combining the wave height estimate from a numerical experiment with the probability evaluation of tsunami occurrence in Japan, RIKITAKE and AIDA (1988) evaluated probabilities of a site being hit by a tsunami, of which the wave height exceeds certain levels. According to GO et al (1985), tsunami recurrence for tsunami hazard assessment is described by two parameters: Frequency of occurrence of large tsunamis and coefficient of wave amplification near the shore. The joint probability method was applied by several authors (e.g., SANCHEZ and FARRERAS, 1987;RABINOVICH et al, 1992) for the calculation of expected runup height due to tsunamis and other rapid sea-level changes, like astronomical tides and storm surges.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Conditional Probability Approach of the Assessment of Tsunami Potential: Application in Three Tsunamigenic Regions of the Pacific Ocean

Orfanogiannaki

Papadopoulos

2007

Pure appl. geophys.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We develop stochastic approaches to determine the potential for tsunami generation from earthquakes by combining two interrelated time series, one for the earthquake events, and another for the tsunami events. Conditional probabilities for the occurrence of tsunamis as a function of time are calculated by assuming that the inter-arrival times of the past events are lognormally distributed and by taking into account the time of occurrence of the last event in the time series. An alternative approach is based on the total probabilitiy theorem. Then, the probability for the tsunami occurrence equals the product of the ratio, r (= tsunami generating earthquakes/total number of earthquakes) by the conditional probability for the occurrence of the next earthquake in the zone. The probabilities obtained by the total probability theorem are bounded upwards by the ratio r and, therefore, they are not comparable with the conditional probabilities. The two methods were successfully tested in three characteristic seismic zones of the Pacific Ocean: South America, Kuril-Kamchatka and Japan. For time intervals of about 20 years and over the probabilities exceed 0.50 in the three zones. It has been found that the results depend on the approach applied. In fact, the conditional probabilities of tsunami occurrence in Japan are slightly higher than in the South America region and in Kuril-Kamchatka they are clearly lower than in South America. Probabilities calculated by the total probability theorem are systematically higher in South America than in Japan while in Kuril-Kamchatka they are significantly lower than in Japan. The stochastic techniques tested in this paper are promising for the tsunami potential assessment in other tsunamigenic regions of the world.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Conditional Probability Approach of the Assessment of Tsunami Potential: Application in Three Tsunamigenic Regions of the Pacific Ocean

Orfanogiannaki

Papadopoulos

2007

Pure appl. geophys.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The technique of local long-term forecasting [1][2][3] allows one, on the basis of statistical analysis of real data, to obtain the main characteristics of tsunami conditions at single points. With no real data available, the results of direct numerical modelling can be starting material for developing a local long-term forecast.…”

Section: O Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using numerical modelling to evaluate tsunami hazard near the Kuril Island

1992

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A sequence of computer experiments is used to study questions concerning the tsunami problem as a quantitative estimate of tsunami danger, detailed geographical tsunami classification, determination of the parameters of 'critical' tsunami waves, and the conditions of their development. We call a wave 'critical', if its impact on the coast is most hazardous.Using the Middle Kuril Island as an example, we present the results of a computer experiment which includes determining the wavefields on the shelf and estimating the effects connected with the deepwater Bussol and Diana Straits.Numerical simulation of tsunami waves of different sources permits the assessment of the extent of tsunami danger in different areas of the coastal zone of Simushir Island, depending on the location of the focus zone and their geometry.The major singularities of the wavefield arise in the zones of the deep-water straits. The distribution of the amplification factors is determined by both the global parameters of the wavefields and the local properties of individual harbours. The results obtained for a particular harbour in the northern part of Simushir Island, formed the basis for the quantitative estimate of tsunami danger for this area.

show abstract

Conditional Probability Approach of the Assessment of Tsunami Potential: Application in Three Tsunamigenic Regions of the Pacific Ocean

Orfanogiannaki¹,

Papadopoulos²

Pageoph Topical Volumes

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A two‐parameter scheme for tsunami hazard zoning

Cited by 15 publications

References 1 publication

Conditional Probability Approach of the Assessment of Tsunami Potential: Application in Three Tsunamigenic Regions of the Pacific Ocean

Conditional Probability Approach of the Assessment of Tsunami Potential: Application in Three Tsunamigenic Regions of the Pacific Ocean

Using numerical modelling to evaluate tsunami hazard near the Kuril Island

Conditional Probability Approach of the Assessment of Tsunami Potential: Application in Three Tsunamigenic Regions of the Pacific Ocean

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About