Conditional Probability Approach of the Assessment of Tsunami Potential: Application in Three Tsunamigenic Regions of the Pacific Ocean

Orfanogiannaki, K.; Papadopoulos, G. A.

doi:10.1007/978-3-7643-8364-0_18

Cited by 11 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Based on the previous investigations conducted by Utsu [1], Hagiwara [4], Ferraes [5], Jafari [7], Tripathi [13], and Orfanogiannaki and Papadopoulos [14] the mode of conditional probability can be used to predict the recurrence time of the earthquake. The maximum value of conditional probability in this paper is defined as the prediction time of the next earthquake.…”

Section: Java Language Program Application On Predicting the Next Earmentioning

confidence: 99%

Java Language Program Application on Predicting the Next Earthquake in Indonesia

Muhammad¹,

Anggraini²

2013

JACN

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Abstract-This paper applied the use of Java programming language to create a program named Java Earthquake Program (JEP) used to forecast the next earthquake in Indonesia. The 133 earthquake events from United States Geological Survey (USGS) occurred in the period of 1954 to 2012 were used to build the program. Three probabilistic models were used to model the earthquake data in Indonesia which are normal, gamma, and beta distributions. The goodness fit tests result from Java earthquake program (JEP) confirmed that gamma distribution is reliable to model the earthquake data in Indonesia. The calculation result of maximum conditional probability from JEP indicated that the next earthquake will be occurred on the date range of August 27, 2012 to February 19, 2013 with M w ≥ 5.0. This exactly confirmed that JEP is reliable to predict the earthquake recurrence time in Indonesia.Index Terms-Java earthquake program (JEP), gamma, earthquake recurrence time.

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Section: Java Language Program Application On Predicting the Next Earmentioning

confidence: 99%

Java Language Program Application on Predicting the Next Earthquake in Indonesia

Muhammad¹,

Anggraini²

2013

JACN

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“…All attempts proposed so far can be gathered in two broad categories. In one category, PTHA is estimated by using tsunami catalogues (Burroughs and Tebbens 2005;Tinti et al 2005;Orfanogiannaki and Papadopoulos 2007), while in the other case, different ''scenario-based'' PTHAs are suggested (Geist and Parsons 2006;Farreras et al 2007;Liu et al 2007;Power et al 2007;Yanagisawa et al 2007, Burbidge et al2008. The difference between them has important implications.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Bayesian procedure for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

et al. 2009

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In this paper, a Bayesian procedure is implemented for the Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA). The approach is general and modular incorporating all significant information relevant for the hazard assessment, such as theoretical and empirical background, analytical or numerical models, instrumental and historical data. The procedure provides the posterior probability distribution that integrates the prior probability distribution based on the physical knowledge of the process and the likelihood based on the historical data. Also, the method deals with aleatory and epistemic uncertainties incorporating in a formal way all sources of relevant uncertainty, from the tsunami generation process to the wave propagation and impact on the coasts. The modular structure of the procedure is flexible and easy to modify and/or update as long as new models and/or information are available. Finally, the procedure is applied to an hypothetical region, Neverland, to clarify the PTHA evaluation in a realistic case.

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“…In the first category, PTHA is conducted using tsunami catalogs (Burroughs and Tebbens 2005;Kulikov et al 2005;Tinti et al 2005;Orfanogiannaki and Papadopoulos 2007), whereas in the second category, different ''scenario-based'' PTHA methods are suggested (Geist and Dmowska 1999;Downes and Stirling 2001;Farreras et al 2007;Liu et al 2007;Power et al 2007;Yanagisawa et al 2007; Burbidge et al 2008;González et al 2009;Løvholt et al 2012). In the third category, a combination of the previous two is considered (Geist 2005;Geist and Parsons 2006;Annaka et al 2007;Thio et al 2007;Burbidge et al 2008;Parsons and Geist 2009;Grezio et al 2010Grezio et al , 2012Horspool et al 2014;Fukutani et al 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation-Based Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: Empirical and Robust Hazard Predictions

Risi

Goda

2017

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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Abstract-Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is the prerequisite for rigorous risk assessment and thus for decisionmaking regarding risk mitigation strategies. This paper proposes a new simulation-based methodology for tsunami hazard assessment for a specific site of an engineering project along the coast, or, more broadly, for a wider tsunami-prone region. The methodology incorporates numerous uncertain parameters that are related to geophysical processes by adopting new scaling relationships for tsunamigenic seismic regions. Through the proposed methodology it is possible to obtain either a tsunami hazard curve for a single location, that is the representation of a tsunami intensity measure (such as inundation depth) versus its mean annual rate of occurrence, or tsunami hazard maps, representing the expected tsunami intensity measures within a geographical area, for a specific probability of occurrence in a given time window. In addition to the conventional tsunami hazard curve that is based on an empirical statistical representation of the simulation-based PTHA results, this study presents a robust tsunami hazard curve, which is based on a Bayesian fitting methodology. The robust approach allows a significant reduction of the number of simulations and, therefore, a reduction of the computational effort. Both methods produce a central estimate of the hazard as well as a confidence interval, facilitating the rigorous quantification of the hazard uncertainties.

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Conditional Probability Approach of the Assessment of Tsunami Potential: Application in Three Tsunamigenic Regions of the Pacific Ocean

Cited by 11 publications

References 7 publications

Java Language Program Application on Predicting the Next Earthquake in Indonesia

Java Language Program Application on Predicting the Next Earthquake in Indonesia

A Bayesian procedure for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

Simulation-Based Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: Empirical and Robust Hazard Predictions

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