Using numerical modelling to evaluate tsunami hazard near the Kuril Island

Abstract

A sequence of computer experiments is used to study questions concerning the tsunami problem as a quantitative estimate of tsunami danger, detailed geographical tsunami classification, determination of the parameters of 'critical' tsunami waves, and the conditions of their development. We call a wave 'critical', if its impact on the coast is most hazardous.Using the Middle Kuril Island as an example, we present the results of a computer experiment which includes determining the wavefields on the shelf and estimating the effects connected with the deepwater Bussol and Diana Straits.Numerical simulation of tsunami waves of different sources permits the assessment of the extent of tsunami danger in different areas of the coastal zone of Simushir Island, depending on the location of the focus zone and their geometry.The major singularities of the wavefield arise in the zones of the deep-water straits. The distribution of the amplification factors is determined by both the global parameters of the wavefields and the local properties of individual harbours. The results obtained for a particular harbour in the northern part of Simushir Island, formed the basis for the quantitative estimate of tsunami danger for this area.

Physics of Tsunamis

“…Numerical models of tsunamis that gained well-known popularity as powerful means for investigations [Chubarov et al (1992); Kato, Tsuji (1995); Satake (1995); ; Tanioka, Satake (1996); Titov (1999) ; ], seem to have achieved a certain limit in their perfection, in the sense that for their further successful development it is necessary to introduce a number of essentially novel features, one of which consists in the following: wave excitation must be described realistically, i.e. it must be dealt with as a process extended in time.…”