A Three-Stage Hybrid Model for Space-Time Analysis of Water Resources Carrying Capacity: A Case Study of Jilin Province, China

Abstract

Water shortage, water pollution, shrinking water area and water mobility are the main contents of the water resources crisis, which are widespread in the social and economic development of Jilin Province. In this paper, a three-stage hybrid model integrating evaluation, prediction and regulation is constructed by combining the load-balance method and the system dynamics method. Using this model, the current states of water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) in 2017 and the trend of water demand/available from 2018 to 2030 were obtained. Using the orthogonal test method, the optimal combination program of agricultural and industrial water efficiency regulation and water resources allocation was selected. The results show that the pressure of the human–water resources system in Changchun, Liaoyuan and Baicheng is greater than the support, and the other six cities are not overloaded. The water demand in Jilin Province and its nine cities will increase from 2018 to 2030, if the current socio-economic development pattern is maintained. Therefore, we change the water quantity carrying capacity index by controlling agriculture, industrial water efficiency and trans-regional water transfer. Compared with 2015, among the optimal program obtained, the change range of the water use per 10,000 RMB of agricultural output is (−5%, 25%), and the water use per 10,000 RMB of industrial added value is (−45%, −35%), and the maximum water transfer is 1.5 billion m3 per year in 2030. This study analyzes the development pattern of WRCC in the process of water conservancy modernization in Jilin Province and provides reference for other provinces to make the similar plan.

Water Resource Carrying Capacity Based on Water Demand Prediction in Chang-Ji Economic Circle

“…As regional development progresses, most regions would develop slowly if no measures are taken (Plan I). These results further validate the intuition and visualization of the WRCC classification and provide a basis for the government to rationally allocate water resources [10,22].…”

“…In China, there are few studies on the water resources carrying capacity of the Chang-Ji economic circle [9]. Moreover, most of the studies in the Chang-Ji Economic Circle are carried out in administrative regions, and few studies take into account the constraints of water pollution on the WRCC, which cannot directly and accurately measure the development potential of the entire Chang-Ji Economic Circle [10,11]. Therefore, this study takes into account the quantity and quality of water resources and combines the comprehensive carrying capacity of social economic development and ecological environment and selects appropriate methods to evaluate the WRCC of the Chang-Ji Economic Circle.…”

Projection of Future Water Resources Carrying Capacity in the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin under the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities

“…Entropy weight method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) are the representative methods of objective weighting method and subjective weighting method, respectively. Entropy weight method calculates the weight by using specific formulas according to the discrete degree of each evaluation index; AHP decomposes the indexes to different levels and carries on qualitative and quantitative analysis [33,44]. Considering the different characteristics of these two methods, the combined weighting method based on entropy weight method and AHP is used.…”

Advances in Urban Groundwater and Sustainable Water Resources Management and Planning: Insights for Improved Designs with Nature, Hazards, and Society

“…Zeferino et al [46] present a study to delineate the effectiveness of well-head protection areas after long-term applications on public supplies with continuous pumping located in a densely populated urban area of Montijo municipality (SW Portugal). (iv) A set of papers [47][48][49] underlining several case studies on numerical analysis and modelling of groundwater resources management. Liu et al [47] describe a model for analysing the development pattern of water resource's carrying capacity by examining the water conservancy in Jilin Province (NE China).…”