“…Unlike the long-term early warning (three to five years) that is helpful for long-term planning, the short-term early warning (one to two years) is mainly used for assessing and predicting the water environmental situation in watershed management of the next year. Nevertheless, existing quantitative methods and models for the short-term early warning of the water environmental system are based mainly on the future trend prediction of single and independent early warning indicators and have rarely focused on the integrated change trends of the early warning indicators; these methods and models mainly include the variable fuzzy pattern recognition (VFPR) (Wang and Xu, 2015), autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) , multiple linear regression model (MLRM) (Wang et al, 2021), gray forecast model (GM) (Lu and Tang, 2019), and artificial neural networks (ANNs) (Maier et al, 2010;Yu et al, 2020;Cao et al, 2021;Chen et al, 2022). In actuality, however, the change in the socioeconomic system is cyclical and is affected by the quantity of flow (e.g., monthly, quarterly, and annual changes).…”