Projection of Future Water Resources Carrying Capacity in the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin under the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities

Xie, Meng; Zhang, Chengfeng; Zhang, Jianyun; Wang, Guoqing; Jin, Junliang; Liu, Cuishan; He, Ronghai; Bao, Zhenxin

doi:10.3390/w14132006

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Relatedly, V 2 falls between V 1 and V 3 , indicating that the WRCC of the region is moderate but still has considerable room for further development and utilization. The FCE model can avoid the uncertainty and fuzziness of the evaluation system boundary and improve the objectivity and accuracy of the evaluation results to more comprehensively reflect the regional water resources situation [60][61][62]. The basic principle is as follows.…”

Section: Classification Of the Evaluation Gradesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Level Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Xuzhou City, China

et al. 2023

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Water resources, as an essential natural resource, plays an irreplaceable role in the ecological environment, social economy, and human survival. Water resource carrying capacity (WRCC), as an important indicator of sustainable development, has been widely used to assess the capacity of water resources to support economic and social development. Using Xuzhou City as a case study, the sustainable capacity of water resources in the current (from 2012 to 2020) and future (projected scenarios in 2025 and 2030) stages were investigated by constructing a multi-level fuzzy-based evaluation model. The results indicated that the average WRCC score is 0.4388 in Xuzhou City, ranging from 0.2908 to 0.6330, with a significant decline in the score value of 0.4644 in 2019 but an apparent improvement in WRCC from 2012 to 2020. However, the continued pressure on water resources sustainable development is unchanged in Xuzhou, according to the projected assessment of WRCC in 2025 and 2030. Overall, the WRCC in Xuzhou City will be overloaded under future development scenarios, i.e., sustainable development mode (Scenario A), water conservation mode (Scenario B), rapid socioeconomic development mode (Scenario C), and adjustment of industrial structure mode (Scenario D). Thus, several measures, such as industrial restructuring and water conservation and utilization, should be conducted to enhance the carrying capacity of regional water resources and ensure the quality and sustainability of regional social and economic development. The results can provide a reference for the rational utilization of water resources in Xuzhou and are of some significance in promoting the city’s coordinated socioeconomic growth.

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Section: Classification Of the Evaluation Gradesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Level Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Xuzhou City, China

et al. 2023

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“…For instance, in formulating the evaluation criteria for the water resources carrying capacity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, Liu employed escalating demographic expansion and the pursuit of an elevated quality of life as indicators, reflecting the localized pressures on water resources [22]. Similarly, Xie took into account the impacts of inter-basin water transfers and water diversion projects, forecasting the prospective water resources carrying capacity in the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin [23]. Xu evaluated the suitability of land resources and human activities on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based on the status quo on land use (construction land and cultivated land) [24].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial–Temporal Evolution and Correlation Analysis of Human Activity Intensity and Resource Carrying Capacity in the Region around Poyang Lake, China, from 2010 to 2020

Tan,

Hu,

Huang

et al. 2023

Land

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To explore the influence of human activities on natural resources and the correlation between these two characteristics, taking the region around Poyang Lake in China as the research area. Utilizing data from 2010, 2013, 2015, 2017, and 2020, including remote sensing, gross domestic product (GDP), and population density data, the human activity intensity (HAI) and resource carrying capacity (RCC) were calculated using relevant models. Analyzing the dynamic change characteristics, the temporal and spatial correlations, and the interaction between the two aspects, bivariate spatial autocorrelation and other methods were used. The results show that: (1) from 2010 to 2020, there was a significant increasing trend in the HAI, while the RCC remained at a generally stable level. (2) In both the temporal and spatial dimensions, there was a certain positive correlation between the HAI and RCC. Their interaction, however, is primarily based on the intrinsic resources and human activity factors within each region, with limited observable factor flow between regions. (3) Regions with the medium level of HAI have greater development potential. The results are expected to enrich the research on human activities and natural resources in the region around Poyang Lake in China and provide a reference for relevant planning.

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“…Balancing the issues of water resource development and conservation under climate change and ecologically sustainable development conditions is particularly important for maintaining a balance between the water environment and the economy as well as a sustainable supply of water resources in arid regions [5]. The water resource carrying capacity, ecological sustainability and response measures caused by global climate change have been widely concerned and studied by many institutions and scholars [6,7]. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposed in "The report Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability" that "healthy ecosystems are more resilient to climate change and will provide adequate food, water and other essential basic services".…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Natural Vegetation Area Design in an Arid Region Based on Water Resource Carrying Capacity—Taking Minqin County as an Example

Zhang,

Yu,

Jiang

et al. 2023

Water

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Water resource management and natural vegetation distribution status are important for the sustainable development of agricultural, ecological and socio-economic systems in arid areas, and the carrying area of vegetation is limited by the established water resources. This study proposed the concept of natural vegetation area design in arid areas based on water resource design carrying capacity and took Minqin County belonging to a typical inland arid area as an example and socio-economic water consumption, ecological water consumption and water resource utilization efficiency in the study area as the main selected factors as well as reference indicators. By calculating the water ecological footprint, water resource carrying and water resource ecological pressure index of the main natural vegetation design area in Minqin County in 2017, we analyzed and evaluated its water resource carrying status and predicted the natural vegetation areas in 2025. The results showed that there was a large gap (the increase was 13.25–9.29%) between the actual area of various types of natural vegetation in 2017 and that in 2025. The water resource utilization was more effective in various types of natural vegetation in Minqin County under the stable development model, and the water ecological deficit was approaching 0, but the utilization of forest trees other than shrubs and herbaceous plants was in an insecure state, and the water ecological deficit was less than 0. The water resource allocation schemes under the restoration model and the optimization model were safer ecological development models for natural vegetation in Minqin County, which was in a state of water-ecological surplus, and the water-ecological surplus value was greater than 0. Thus, it could be seen that coordinating the water resource supply among various types of natural vegetation in an arid area was a preferred strategy to ensure the sustainable development of regional ecology as well as an effective countermeasure to improve the water use efficiency of natural vegetation in the county to a certain extent. This study aimed to evaluate the carrying capacity of a natural vegetation area and the water pressure index under certain water supply conditions, which could provide a reasonable theoretical reference for water resource management in arid areas.

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Projection of Future Water Resources Carrying Capacity in the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin under the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities

Cited by 4 publications

References 44 publications

Multi-Level Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Xuzhou City, China

Multi-Level Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Xuzhou City, China

Spatial–Temporal Evolution and Correlation Analysis of Human Activity Intensity and Resource Carrying Capacity in the Region around Poyang Lake, China, from 2010 to 2020

Natural Vegetation Area Design in an Arid Region Based on Water Resource Carrying Capacity—Taking Minqin County as an Example

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