A system dynamics based market agent model simulating future powertrain technology transition: Scenarios in the EU light duty vehicle road transport sector

Paşaoğlu, Güzay; Harrison, Gillian; Jones, Lee; Hill, A.D.; Beaudet, Alexandre; Thiel, Christian

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2015.11.028

Cited by 92 publications

(68 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…It covers all current 28 Member States (MS) of the Union (EU28) and 16 separate powertrain types. The model has been described extensively in previous publications [30][31][32], and a publically available technical report [33]. Unlike these studies, the focus here is on the manufacturer, which for simplicity is nominally represented as one conglomerate within the PTTMAM.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The base values of this (S1) were determined in previous work as being representative of current subsidy programmes [31], and for our extended scenarios we continue the lowest level of subsidy for increasing durations up to 2025 (S2) and 2050 (S3). These are a data input into the PTTMAM which directly reduces the vehicle nominal price to the user.…”

Section: Policy and Regulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The effect of learning reduces cost of each component (Electric Drive System, Electric Motor, Batteries, Fuel Cell System, H2 storage tank, ICE, and Body) over time in the simulation, based on a base input of 10% learning rate [31], an initial calibrated component cost (based on [43]) and relative to the cumulative production of that component. As all technologies have the same learning effect less mature technologies will benefit more with a greater cost reduction curve.…”

Section: Manufacturer Strategiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Industry strategies for the promotion of E-mobility under alternative policy and economic scenarios

Harrison

Vilchez

Thiel

2018

Eur. Transp. Res. Rev.

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Purpose: In this study, we consider the European electro-mobility market from an industrial perspective, and focus on effects of market conditions and manufacturer strategies, with the objective to gain insight on what could inhibit the successful market penetration of electric powertrain vehicles. Methods: We use the EC-JRC Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent Model (PTTMAM), a system dynamics model based around the interactions of conceptual market agent groups in the EU. We assess strategies employed by automobile manufacturers towards the development and market penetration of electric vehicles.Results: Impacts on electric powertrain sales shares (up to 2050) related to industrial strategies, represented by learning effect, marketing effort and R&D funding, are presented under different scenarios related to policy, regulation and market conditions. Conclusion:It is concluded from the results presented here that competition between electrical powertrain options may be more inhibitive than competition against conventional counterparts, with both monetary and non-monetary industry support for immature powertrains key to their long-term success when supportive policies are designed to be technology neutral.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Policy and Regulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Manufacturer Strategiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Industry strategies for the promotion of E-mobility under alternative policy and economic scenarios

Harrison

Vilchez

Thiel

2018

Eur. Transp. Res. Rev.

Self Cite

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show abstract

“…Therefore a comprehensive system dynamics model of the EU light duty vehicle road transport sector was built, in order to satisfy a need to create a more sophisticated model for understanding relevant interactions and transitions than previously available. This model, the Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent Model (PTTMAM) has been presented in previous publications [7][8][9]. In this paper, modelling case studies are tested against Breal-world^passenger car Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PiEV) uptake.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this study the Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent Model (PTTMAM), a system dynamics model implemented in Vensim™ software, is employed to generate policy insights that could support both EU-wide regulations and the implementation of policy in individual member states. Studies using the PTTMAM have been published that consider the impact of key market and policy conditions [9], and the sensitivity to infrastructure [7]. This study builds on these publications that have only considered hypothetical scenarios at an EU level.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Policy insights and modelling challenges: The case of passenger car powertrain technology transition in the European Union

Harrison

Thiel

2017

Eur. Transp. Res. Rev.

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Purpose We are interested in what policy insights can be transferred from EU countries that have been most successful in introducing EVs to those that are debating policy options.As we use a model to explore this, we are also interested in the application of modelling, seeking to understand if real world policies and results can be replicated in a model and, more generally, the challenges to the use of modelling in policy appraisal. Methods We use the EC-JRC Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent Model (PTTMAM), a system dynamics model based around the interactions of conceptual market agent groups in the EU. We perform iterative scenario tests to replicate the policies carried out in the Netherlands and the UK in recent years in an attempt to achieve similar results in EV sales. We then transfer the policy scenarios to other EU member states and assess the transferability of the policies. Results Reasonable approximations of the Netherlands and UK EV policies and sales were achieved and implemented in other EU member states. Conclusion We find that the PTTMAM is fit-for-purpose and can replicate successful policies to a certain degree. Policy success is sensitive to country specific conditions, and a system dynamics model like the PTTMAM can help identify which conditions react to which policy stimulus. There are challenges to modelling in policy appraisal, such as the subjectivity of the modeller and flexibility to specific conditions, which must be kept transparent for the model to be a relevant tool for policy making.

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The effects of variable geometry turbine opening on reactivity controlled compression ignition combustion

Zhang

Gong

et al. 2018

Env Prog and Sustain Energy

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The article studied the effects of VGT opening on combustion characteristics and emission characteristics of a gasoline/diesel dual‐fuel engine, including in‐cylinder combustion pressure and temperature, heat release rate and combustion phasing, maximum pressure rise rate and combustion stability, and fuel consumption and emissions. The results showed that with the increasing of VGT opening, peak combustion pressure increased and its phasing was advanced; CA10, CA50, and left exothermic peak phasing were also advanced; peak average in‐cylinder temperature was reduced; peak pressure rise rate increased for SOI1‐15 strategy, while VGT opening had little influence on it for SOI1‐18 strategy but the most of their values were higher more than 0.75 MPa/°CA so that causing the engine to work roughly; the COVimep decreased, indicating the combustion tended to stability; brake‐specific fuel consumption decreased first and increased, and there was a minimum value at VGT60;both NO x and soot emissions were simultaneously reduced, while CO emission was increased and HC emissions had little changes. This research can be helpful to guide future works on dual fuel RCCI combustion strategies. © 2018 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog, 38:e13059, 2019

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A system dynamics based market agent model simulating future powertrain technology transition: Scenarios in the EU light duty vehicle road transport sector

Cited by 92 publications

References 31 publications

Industry strategies for the promotion of E-mobility under alternative policy and economic scenarios

Industry strategies for the promotion of E-mobility under alternative policy and economic scenarios

Policy insights and modelling challenges: The case of passenger car powertrain technology transition in the European Union

The effects of variable geometry turbine opening on reactivity controlled compression ignition combustion

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