Policy insights and modelling challenges: The case of passenger car powertrain technology transition in the European Union

Abstract

Purpose We are interested in what policy insights can be transferred from EU countries that have been most successful in introducing EVs to those that are debating policy options.As we use a model to explore this, we are also interested in the application of modelling, seeking to understand if real world policies and results can be replicated in a model and, more generally, the challenges to the use of modelling in policy appraisal. Methods We use the EC-JRC Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent Model (PTTMAM), a system dynamics model based around the interactions of conceptual market agent groups in the EU. We perform iterative scenario tests to replicate the policies carried out in the Netherlands and the UK in recent years in an attempt to achieve similar results in EV sales. We then transfer the policy scenarios to other EU member states and assess the transferability of the policies. Results Reasonable approximations of the Netherlands and UK EV policies and sales were achieved and implemented in other EU member states. Conclusion We find that the PTTMAM is fit-for-purpose and can replicate successful policies to a certain degree. Policy success is sensitive to country specific conditions, and a system dynamics model like the PTTMAM can help identify which conditions react to which policy stimulus. There are challenges to modelling in policy appraisal, such as the subjectivity of the modeller and flexibility to specific conditions, which must be kept transparent for the model to be a relevant tool for policy making.

Industry strategies for the promotion of E-mobility under alternative policy and economic scenarios

“…It covers all current 28 Member States (MS) of the Union (EU28) and 16 separate powertrain types. The model has been described extensively in previous publications [30][31][32], and a publically available technical report [33]. Unlike these studies, the focus here is on the manufacturer, which for simplicity is nominally represented as one conglomerate within the PTTMAM.…”

The Effect of Reducing Electric Car Purchase Incentives in the European Union

“…In the case of the Netherlands (NL), the model was capable of generating only a drastically softened version of the 'peak and valley' behavior displayed by the historical series (particularly for 2015) and missed the 2017 low point. For a detailed modeling exercise replicating the Dutch electric car market with PTTMAM, see [19].…”

“…In the case of the Netherlands (NL), the model was capable of generating only a drastically softened version of the 'peak and valley' behavior displayed by the historical series (particularly for 2015) and missed the 2017 low point. For a detailed modeling exercise replicating the Dutch electric car market with PTTMAM, see [19]. It is worth stressing that attempts at validating the model by (over-)emphasizing the empirical fit may be misleading, for the market is expected to be subjected to radical alterations over the next years.…”

“…This seems to reinforce the hypothesis that non-monetary factors also play a role in electric car markets. Although this country was examined in previous work (refer to [19]), it may be opportune to revisit it in future work.…”

“…Further details on 'willingness to consider' (WtC) and attributes, which comprise environment, performance, reliability, safety, convenience, popularity and choice of vehicle models, can be found in [15]. Furthermore, the impact of purchase subsidies is represented in PTTMAM by the concept of 'demand kick', which can affect the derived market shares (for details, see [10,19]). Thus as can be seen, both monetary and non-monetary factors (an example is provided in Section 3.1.3) impact powertrain choice in PTTMAM.…”