A summary of research advances on tropical cyclone intensity change from 2014-2018

Hendricks, Eric A.; Braun, Scott A.; Vigh, Jonathan L.; Courtney, Joseph B.

doi:10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.01.002

Cited by 22 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most devastating global natural disasters, inducing large economic losses as well as fatalities for various coastal regions. Among TC metrics, TC intensity change has long been regarded as a major challenge for both the scientific research and operational forecasting communities (Courtney et al, 2019;Hendricks et al, 2019). TC intensity change is the result of a complex interaction between various internal influences that are related to the structure and internal processes of the TC itself and various external influences that are controlled by the largescale atmospheric and oceanic environment (Hendricks et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Before Landfall

Song

Klotzbach

2021

Front. Earth Sci.

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This study investigates the long-term trend in the average 24-h intensity change (ΔV24) of western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclones (TCs) before landfall during June-November for the period from 1970–2019. We find a significant increasing trend in basin-averaged ΔV24 during 1970–2019. The increase in ΔV24 is significant over the northern South China Sea (17.5°-25°N, 107.5°-120°E) and to the east of the Philippines (7.5°-15°N, 122.5°-132.5°E), implying a slower weakening rate before landfall for the South China Sea and an increased intensification rate before landfall for the region east of the Philippines. We find a significant linkage between changes in ΔV24 and several large-scale environmental conditions. The increased ΔV24 before landfall in the above two regions is induced by a warmer ocean (e.g., higher sea surface temperatures, maximum potential intensity and TC heat potential) and greater upper-level divergence, with a moister mid-level atmosphere also aiding the ΔV24 increase east of the Philippines. Our study highlights an increasing tendency of ΔV24 before landfall, consistent with trends in ΔV24 over water and over land as found in previous publications.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Before Landfall

Song

Klotzbach

2021

Front. Earth Sci.

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“…2) The SST changes as the TCs track to decay. Evolving tropical cyclone intensity is often nonlinear in nature, including complex and opposing thermodynamic processes with concurrent SSTs ahead of the storm and SSTs near the storm being key factors (Hendricks, 2012). Figure 6 shows the trend in Niño 3 and Niño 4 SST -the effect of Niño 4 in driving cluster 2 PDI upwards is apparent when comparing this to Fig.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of Coral Sea tropical cyclone power and latitude of maximum intensity using climate indices

Miller

Silva

Strauss

2023

Preprint

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Tropical cyclone (TC) wind power, often highly destructive, can be quantified using the power dissipation index (PDI) and in this study, the PDIs for Coral Sea TC tracks, as well as the latitude of maximum intensity (LMI) were investigated for correlation with climatological indices. Multiple linear regression with collinearity removed and an overall Pearson correlation of 0.7 or above was used for this. The results for all tracks showed that three indices dominated for PDI: Niño 4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST), the Dipole Mode Index (DMI) and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The TC tracks clustered by maximum windspeed-weighted locations were then examined: For cluster 1 (located SE Australia), the additional influence of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) was apparent, whilst for cluster 2 (located NW Australia), the same indices dominated as for the all-tracks model. For LMI, four indices were identified: the Indian Ocean East SST Anomaly (DMI E), the MJO, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the SAM. Only TCs clustered in the northeast of Australia had a valid model for LMI, with correlation 0.8, using three indices: DMI E, DMI and the SOI. Overall, raised Niño 4 SST combined with a negative DMI and low MJO amplitude were shown to predict large increases in TC power, whilst a combination of increasing DMI E temperature anomaly with a positive SOI moves LMI equator-wards. Improved understanding of the relative influences of the climate indices on TC power dissipation has direct ramifications for the future risk/hazard profile of coastal communities.

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“…Over the last few decades, TC intensity change has been extensively researched, and significant progress to our understanding has been achieved (Demaria et al., 2014; Leroux et al., 2018; Rogers, 2021; Wang, 2014, 2018; Wang & Wu, 2004). However, forecasting TC intensity change, especially rapid intensification, still faces great challenges (Demaria et al., 2014; Leroux et al., 2018), as intensity change is impacted by complex processes across multiple scales involving both environmental forcing and internal structures (Hendricks et al., 2010; Kaplan & Demaria, 2003; Rogers, 2021; Wang & Wu, 2004). The diurnal cycle of TCs is likely one such process (Melhauser & Zhang, 2014; Ruppert & Hohenegger, 2018; Tang & Zhang, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most catastrophic natural hazards, causing thousands of deaths and billions of dollars in economic losses every year (Emanuel et al., 2012; Mori & Takemi, 2016; Weinkle et al., 2012; Zhang et al., 2009, 2017). Over the last few decades, TC intensity change has been extensively researched, and significant progress to our understanding has been achieved (Demaria et al., 2014; Leroux et al., 2018; Rogers, 2021; Wang, 2014, 2018; Wang & Wu, 2004). However, forecasting TC intensity change, especially rapid intensification, still faces great challenges (Demaria et al., 2014; Leroux et al., 2018), as intensity change is impacted by complex processes across multiple scales involving both environmental forcing and internal structures (Hendricks et al., 2010; Kaplan & Demaria, 2003; Rogers, 2021; Wang & Wu, 2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global and Regional Characteristics of Radially Outward Propagating Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Pulses

et al. 2023

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A summary of research advances on tropical cyclone intensity change from 2014-2018

Cited by 22 publications

References 11 publications

Trends in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Before Landfall

Trends in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Before Landfall

Prediction of Coral Sea tropical cyclone power and latitude of maximum intensity using climate indices

Global and Regional Characteristics of Radially Outward Propagating Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Pulses

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