Real-time forecasts of five landfalling Atlantic hurricanes during 2005 using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) (ARW) Model at grid spacings of 12 and 4 km revealed performance generally competitive with, and occasionally superior to, other operational forecasts for storm position and intensity. Recurring errors include 1) excessive intensification prior to landfall, 2) insufficient momentum exchange with the surface, and 3) inability to capture rapid intensification when observed. To address these errors several augmentations of the basic community model have been designed and tested as part of what is termed the Advanced Hurricane WRF (AHW) model. Based on sensitivity simulations of Katrina, the inner-core structure, particularly the size of the eye, was found to be sensitive to model resolution and surface momentum exchange. The forecast of rapid intensification and the structure of convective bands in Katrina were not significantly improved until the grid spacing approached 1 km. Coupling the atmospheric model to a columnar, mixed layer ocean model eliminated much of the erroneous intensification of Katrina prior to landfall noted in the real-time forecast.

The influence of the direction of storm motion on the azimuthal distribution of electrified convection in 35 Atlantic basin tropical cyclones from 1985 to 1999 was examined using data from the National Lightning Detection Network. In the inner 100 km, flashes most often occurred in the front half of storms, with a preference for the right-front quadrant. In the outer rainbands (r ϭ 100-300 km), flashes occurred predominantly to the right of motion, although the maximum remained in the right-front quadrant. The results are shown to be consistent with previous studies of asymmetries in rainfall, radar reflectivity, and vertical motion with respect to tropical cyclone motion. The motion effect has been attributed to the influence of asymmetric friction in the tropical cyclone boundary layer. The authors previously found a strong signature in the azimuthal distribution of lightning with respect to vertical wind shear. Because both effects show clearly, vertical wind shear and storm motion must themselves be systematically related. It was found that more than three-quarters of 12-hourly periods contained a storm motion vector that was left of (i.e., counterclockwise from) the shear vector. These results support the importance of a downshear shift in the upper anticyclone, which produces motion left of shear for all directions of shear. The results are further broken down by direction of shear, and it is shown that the beta effect also plays a significant role in the relationship between motion and vertical wind shear. These results also suggest that substantial downshear tilt of the cyclonic part of the tropical cyclone vortex is uncommon, because that alone produces motion right of shear. The relative importance of asymmetric friction and vertical wind shear on the azimuthal asymmetry of convection was determined by examining circumstances in which the two effects would place maximum lightning in different quadrants. Without exception, the influence of vertical wind shear dominated the distribution. Although asymmetric friction creates vertical motion asymmetries at the top of the boundary layer, these apparently do not produce deep convection if vertical wind shear-induced circulations oppose them.

. The WWLLN cloud-to-ground detection efficiency is found to be strongly dependent on peak current and polarity, attaining values larger than 10% (35%) for currents stronger than ±35 kA (−130 kA) and values less than 2% for currents between 0 and −10 kA. The location accuracy is found to have a northward and westward bias, with average location errors of 4.03 km in the north-south and 4.98 km in the east-west directions, respectively. The WWLLN is shown to have strong limitations in capturing the diurnal cycle, missing both the timing of the maximum and minimum lightning activity (around 1600 and 0900 LT, respectively), and the amplitude of the cycle as well. It is found that in 3 h intervals, the number of flashes in the WWLLN has some proportionality to the number of flashes in the NLDN, suggesting that the WWLLN has strong potential for meteorological applications.

The influence of vertical wind shear on the azimuthal distribution of cloud-to-ground lightning in tropical cyclones was examined using flash locations from the National Lightning Detection Network. The study covers 35 Atlantic basin tropical cyclones from 1985-99 while they were over land and within 400 km of the coast over water. A strong correlation was found between the azimuthal distribution of flashes and the direction of the vertical wind shear in the environment. When the magnitude of the vertical shear exceeded 5 m s Ϫ1 , more than 90% of flashes occurred downshear in both the storm core (defined as the inner 100 km) and the outer band region (r ϭ 100-300 km). A slight preference for downshear left occurred in the storm core, and a strong preference for downshear right in the outer rainbands. The results were valid both over land and water, and for depression, storm, and hurricane stages. It is argued that in convectively active tropical cyclones, deep divergent circulations oppose the vertical wind shear and act to minimize the tilt. This allows the convection maximum to remain downshear rather than rotating with time. The downshear left preference in the core is stronger for hurricanes than for weaker tropical cyclones. This suggests that the helical nature of updrafts in the core, which is most likely for the small orbital periods of hurricanes, plays a role in shifting the maximum lightning counterclockwise from updraft initiation downshear. The downshear right maximum outside the core resembles the stationary band complex of Willoughby et al. and the rain shield of Senn and Hiser. The existence and azimuthal position of this feature appears to be controlled by the magnitude and direction of the vertical wind shear.

Extratropical transition (ET) is the process by which a tropical cyclone, upon encountering a baroclinic environment and reduced sea surface temperature at higher latitudes, transforms into an extratropical cyclone. This process is influenced by, and influences, phenomena from the tropics to the midlatitudes and from the meso- to the planetary scales to extents that vary between individual events. Motivated in part by recent high-impact and/or extensively observed events such as North Atlantic Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and western North Pacific Typhoon Sinlaku in 2008, this review details advances in understanding and predicting ET since the publication of an earlier review in 2003. Methods for diagnosing ET in reanalysis, observational, and model-forecast datasets are discussed. New climatologies for the eastern North Pacific and southwest Indian Oceans are presented alongside updates to western North Pacific and North Atlantic Ocean climatologies. Advances in understanding and, in some cases, modeling the direct impacts of ET-related wind, waves, and precipitation are noted. Improved understanding of structural evolution throughout the transformation stage of ET fostered in large part by novel aircraft observations collected in several recent ET events is highlighted. Predictive skill for operational and numerical model ET-related forecasts is discussed along with environmental factors influencing posttransition cyclone structure and evolution. Operational ET forecast and analysis practices and challenges are detailed. In particular, some challenges of effective hazard communication for the evolving threats posed by a tropical cyclone during and after transition are introduced. This review concludes with recommendations for future work to further improve understanding, forecasts, and hazard communication.

Forty-six years of summer rainfall and tropical cyclone data are used to explore the role that eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs) play in the rainfall climatology of the summer monsoon over the southwestern United States. Thirty-five TCs and their remnants were found to bring significant rainfall to the region, representing less than 10% of the total number of TCs that formed within the basin. The month of September was the most common time for TC rainfall to occur in the monsoon region as midlatitude troughs become more likely to penetrate far enough south to interact with the TCs and steer them toward the north and east. On average, the contribution of TCs to the warm-season precipitation increased from east to west, accounting for less than 5% of the rainfall in New Mexico and increasing to more than 20% in southern California and northern Baja California, with individual storms accounting for as much as 95% of the summer rainfall. The distribution of rainfall for TC events over the southwest United States reveals three main categories: 1) a direct northward track from the eastern Pacific into southern California and Nevada, 2) a distinct swath northeastward from southwestern Arizona through northwestern New Mexico and into southwestern Colorado, and 3) a broad area of precipitation over the southwest United States with embedded maxima tied to terrain features. Differences in these track types relate to the phasing between, and scales of, the trough and TC, with the California track being more likely with large cutoff cyclones situated off the west coast, the southwest-northeast track being most likely with mobile midlatitude troughs moving across the intermountain west, and the broad precipitation category generally exhibiting no direct interaction with midlatitude features.

A portable data recorder attached to the Weather Surveillance Radar-1957 (WSR-57) in Apalachicola, Florida, collected 313 radar scans of the reflectivity structure within 150 km of the center of Hurricane Elena (in 1985) between 1310 and 2130 UTC 1 September. This high temporal and spatial (750 m) resolution dataset was used to examine the evolution of the symmetric and asymmetric precipitation structure in Elena as the storm rapidly strengthened and attained maximum intensity. Fourier decomposition of the reflectivity data into azimuthal wavenumbers revealed that the power in the symmetric (wavenumber 0) component dominated the reflectivity pattern at all times and all radii by at least a factor of 2. The wavenumber 1 asymmetry accounted for less than 20% of the power in the reflectivity field on average and was found to be forced by the environmental vertical wind shear. The small-amplitude wavenumber 2 asymmetry in the core was associated with the appearance and rotation of an elliptical eyewall. This structure was visible for nearly 2 h and was noted to rotate cyclonically at a speed equal to half of the local tangential wind. Outside of the eyewall, individual peaks in the power in wavenumber 2 were associated with repeated instances of cyclonically rotating, outward-propagating inner spiral rainbands. Four separate convective bands were identified with an average azimuthal velocity of 25 m s−1, or ∼68% of the local tangential wind speed, and an outward radial velocity of 5.2 m s−1. The azimuthal propagation speeds of the elliptical eyewall and inner spiral rainbands were consistent with vortex Rossby wave theory. The elliptical eyewall and inner spiral rainbands were seen only in the 6-h period prior to peak intensity, when rapid spinup of the vortex had produced an annular vorticity profile, similar to those that have been shown to support barotropic instability. The appearance of an elliptical eyewall was consistent with the breakdown of eyewall vorticity into mesovortices, asymmetric mixing between the eye and eyewall, and a slowing of the intensification rate. The inner spiral rainbands might have arisen from high eyewall vorticity ejected from the core during the mixing process. Alternatively, because the bands were noted to emanate from the vertical shear-forced deep convection in the northern eyewall, they could have formed through the axisymmetrization of the asymmetric diabatically generated eyewall vorticity.

The authors demonstrate how and why cloud–radiative forcing (CRF), the interaction of hydrometeors with longwave and shortwave radiation, can influence tropical cyclone structure through “semi idealized” integrations of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF) and an axisymmetric cloud model. Averaged through a diurnal cycle, CRF consists of pronounced cooling along the anvil top and weak warming through the cloudy air, which locally reverses the large net cooling that occurs in the troposphere under clear-sky conditions. CRF itself depends on the microphysics parameterization and represents one of the major reasons why simulations can be sensitive to microphysical assumptions. By itself, CRF enhances convective activity in the tropical cyclone’s outer core, leading to a wider eye, a broader tangential wind field, and a stronger secondary circulation. This forcing also functions as a positive feedback, assisting in the development of a thicker and more radially extensive anvil than would otherwise have formed. These simulations clearly show that the weak (primarily longwave) warming within the cloud anvil is the major component of CRF, directly forcing stronger upper-tropospheric radial outflow as well as slow, yet sustained, ascent throughout the outer core. In particular, this ascent leads to enhanced convective heating, which in turn broadens the wind field, as demonstrated with dry simulations using realistic heat sources. As a consequence, improved tropical cyclone forecasting in operational models may depend on proper representation of cloud–radiative processes, as they can strongly modulate the size and strength of the outer wind field that can potentially influence cyclone track as well as the magnitude of the storm surge.