Trends in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Before Landfall

Li, Qingyuan; Song, Jun Yeob; Klotzbach, Philip J.

doi:10.3389/feart.2021.780353

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 19 publications

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“…It is worth noting that both the frequency of the intensifying cases and the ratio of the intensifying cases to all cases over the MSC show an increasing trend during 1980-2018. A similar trend has also been found in a recent study by Liu et al (2021). If the trend continues, it may impose increasing challenges to forecasting and warning associated with landfalling TCs over China coast.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 83%

Factors Controlling Tropical Cyclone Intensification Over the Marginal Seas of China

Zhan

Wang

et al. 2021

Front. Earth Sci.

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Tropical cyclone (TC) intensification over marginal seas, especially rapid intensification (RI), often poses great threat to lives and properties in coastal regions and is subject to large forecast errors. It is thus important to understand the characteristics of TC intensification and the involved key factors affecting TC intensification over marginal seas. In this study, the 6-hourly TC best-track data from Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration, ERA-Interim reanalysis data, and TRMM satellite rainfall products are used to analyze and compare the climatological characteristics and key factors of different intensification stratifications over the marginal seas of China (MSC) and the western North Pacific (WNP) during 1980–2018. The statistical results show that TC intensification over the MSC is more likely to occur when TCs experience relatively large intensities, weak vertical wind shear, small translation perpendicular to the coastline, relatively high fullness, strong upper-level divergence, low-level relative vorticity, and high inner-core precipitation rate. The box difference index method is used to quantify the relative contributions of these factors to TC RI. Results show that the initial (relative) intensity contributes the most to TC RI over both the MSC and the WNP. The inner-core precipitation rate and translation perpendicular to the coastline are of second importance to TC RI over the MSC, while both vertical wind shear and TC fullness are crucial to TC RI over the WNP. These findings may help understand TC activity over the MSC and provide a basis for improving intensity prediction of TCs in the MSC.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 83%

Factors Controlling Tropical Cyclone Intensification Over the Marginal Seas of China

Zhan

Wang

et al. 2021

Front. Earth Sci.

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The relationship between pre-landfall intensity change and post-landfall weakening of tropical cyclones over China

Wang

Liu

2022

Front. Earth Sci.

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The accurate prediction of the weakening of landfalling tropical cyclones (TC) is of great importance to the disaster prevention but is still challenging. In this study, based on the 6-hourly TC best-track data and global reanalysis data, the relationship between the intensity change prior to landfall of TCs and the energy dissipation rate after landfall over mainland China is statistically analyzed, and the difference between East and South China is compared. Results show that TCs making landfall over East China often experienced pre-landfall weakening and usually corresponded to a rapid decay after landfall, while most TCs making landfall over South China intensified prior to landfall and weakened slowly after landfall. The key factors affecting both pre-landfall intensity change and post-landfall energy dissipation rate are quantitatively analyzed. It is found that the decreasing sea surface temperature (SST), increasing SST gradient, and increasing environmental vertical wind shear are the major factors favoring high pre-landfall weakening occurrence, leading to rapid TC weakening after landfall over East China. In South China, changes in the large-scale environmental factors are relatively small and contribute little to the post-landfall weakening rate.

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Trends in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Before Landfall

Cited by 2 publications

References 19 publications

Factors Controlling Tropical Cyclone Intensification Over the Marginal Seas of China

Factors Controlling Tropical Cyclone Intensification Over the Marginal Seas of China

The relationship between pre-landfall intensity change and post-landfall weakening of tropical cyclones over China

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