A study on demand forecasting for Jeju-bound tourists by travel purpose using seasonal ARIMA-Intervention model

Song, Jung‐Hun

doi:10.7465/jkdi.2016.27.3.725

Cited by 3 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…The results of the current study revealed that MERS was statistically significant at p < 0.05 with a negative sign, indicating that MERS had a strong negative impact on Korea's inbound tourism industry in 2015. The results were similar to that of previous studies, which showed that fatal epidemics had significant effects on international tourism demand (Min, 2005;Shi & Li, 2017;Song, 2016;Suh & Kim, 2018;Yim & Sohn, 2007).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…According to the Korea Culture and Tourism Institute (2015), it is briefly estimated that the MERS outbreak caused a decrease in about half of the country's 332 travel agencies, with 1.53 million fewer international visitors compared to June through September of the previous year. In addition, few academic studies have investigated the impacts of the MERS on the tourism industry in Korea (Shi & Li, 2017;Song, 2016;Suh & Kim, 2018). For example, Shi and Li (2017) examined the impact of MERS on the arrival of international tourists from China to Korea.…”

Section: Mers Outbreak and Its Impact On Koreamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The results showed that MERS had a negative influence on the total number of inbound tourist arrivals and Chinese tourist arrivals to Korea, but did not find significant impacts on business, official, and other types of tourism demands. Song (2016) analyzed the number of tourists to Jeju Island based on the purpose of their travel (i.e., rest and sightseeing, leisure and sport, conference and business). He fit the SARIMA model to the monthly international tourist arrival data from 2005 to 2016.…”

Section: Mers Outbreak and Its Impact On Koreamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, previous studies on the impact of MERS on the tourism industry were not conclusive because most studies employed a SARIMA model (Song, 2016), ARIMA model (Sung, 2016), or SVAR (Suh & Kim, 2018). The methods can be limited to calculate the specific effect sizes for MERS (Jung & Sung, 2017).…”

Section: Mers Outbreak and Its Impact On Koreamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, little estimation has been conducted related to the impact of epidemics on inbound tourism demand (Song & Lee, 2010), and only a few studies have shown the impact of MERS on inbound tourism using a rigorous methodology (Shi & Li, 2017). Instead, studies have examined the impact of MERS with a particular focus such as on the Chinese tourists to Korea (Shi & Li, 2017); on the number of tourists to Jeju Island (Song, 2016); and on casino visitors to Korea (Suh & Kim, 2018). Although these studies emphasized the negative impact of MERS on the tourism demand, rather less attention has been paid to the overall impact of MERS on Korea's inbound tourism demands using forecasting methods throughout the MERS period.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The impact of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus on inbound tourism in South Korea toward sustainable tourism

Choe

Wang

Song

2020

Journal of Sustainable Tourism

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Despite the declaration of the end of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS) outbreak in December 2015 in South Korea that the epidemic lasted for 2 months, the depressed domestic economy and tourism sector did not immediately restore. Thus, it is important to explore how much of an impact the disease had and how long the damage lasted. Using quantitative time-series models, the present study explored the influence of MERS on inbound tourism in South Korea and estimates the concrete impact of MERS on the market in 2015. Monthly international tourist arrival data were provided by the Korea Tourism Organization from January 2009 to December 2015. The results showed that the contagious disease was statistically and negatively significant for inbound tourists visiting South Korea. During the time of MERS, from June 2015 to September 2015, the total effect was estimated to be À1,968,765 tourists with a loss of 3.1 billion USD in receipts. This study can not only better estimate the impact on tourism number of inbound tourist arrivals, but also supports policy-makers in their attempts to establish proper policies to assure tourists of their safety in such crises.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Mers Outbreak and Its Impact On Koreamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Mers Outbreak and Its Impact On Koreamentioning

confidence: 99%