A Science Agenda to Inform Natural Resource Management Decisions in an Era of Ecological Transformation

Abstract

Earth is experiencing widespread ecological transformation in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems that is attributable to directional environmental changes, especially intensifying climate change. To better steward ecosystems facing unprecedented and lasting change, a new management paradigm is forming, supported by a decision-oriented framework that presents three distinct management choices: resist, accept, or direct the ecological trajectory. To make these choices strategically, managers seek to understand the nature of the transformation that could occur if change is accepted while identifying opportunities to intervene to resist or direct change. In this article, we seek to inspire a research agenda for transformation science that is focused on ecological and social science and based on five central questions that align with the resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework. Development of transformation science is needed to apply the RAD framework and support natural resource management and conservation on our rapidly changing planet.

A Multi-Scale Blueprint for Building the Decision Context to Implement Climate Change Adaptation on National Wildlife Refuges in the United States

“…These factors, such as site conditions, legacies, colonization, mortality, and disturbance events, shape ecosystem change [35,39]. Scenarios and experimentation via adaptive management are useful approaches for increasing understanding about the range of ecological trajectories [8,40]. Considering a range of ecological trajectories is useful because how ecosystem change unfolds in a particular place is contingent on the timing and the sequence of historical and future events.…”

“…The RAD framework (Figure 2) helps managers consider alterative management responses to ecological change [1,16]. RAD expands focus from historical or current conditions to consider how the use of management intervention could be used to shape future outcomes across the range of plausible ecological trajectories [35,40]. Implementing RAD requires the development of local interventions that are both targeted to the unique natural and management history of a specific place and contextualized by regional climate change vulnerability.…”

Resist, accept, and direct responses to biological invasions: A social–ecological perspective

“…RAD offers a simple and effective means through which stakeholders can envision more intentional decisions regarding what is desirable or attainable in a world where the prospects of change and transformation are increasingly likely. Ecological transformation can be defined as a major and irreversible shift in multiple features of ecosystems, which include changes in ecological communities (Crausbay et al, 2022). RAD considers management responses to transformation in terms of (1) resisting trajectories of change by acting to maintain a contemporary state or restore prior ecological conditions, (2) accepting trajectories of change without interventions, (3) directing changes through interventions intended to shape ecological conditions toward new desired conditions or states (Aplet & McKinley, 2017; Schuurman et al, 2022).…”

RAD: A Paradigm, Shifting

“…Moreover, each of the articles explores some dimension of how RAD can be integrated into and update current management practice, with multiple exemplar systems. For example, Crausbay and colleagues ( 2021 , this issue) establish priorities for scientific questions for supporting manager decision-making, whereas Clifford and colleagues ( 2021 , this issue) explore the internal and external factors that affect how a manager might choose among RAD options, positioning RAD at the nexus between social and ecological systems. Magness and colleagues ( 2021 , this issue) provide foundational principles for ecosystem management in a RAD framework, using the Kenai Peninsula as an example, whereas Lynch and colleagues ( 2021 , this issue) show how the classic adaptive management cycle can be adapted (and complexified) to include RAD.…”

“…No single RAD solution fits all. Many managers will likely employ a portfolio of RAD solutions, ­employing, for example, resistance strategies for ecosystems of high cultural or biological importance, such as the ethnographic landscapes surrounding Devils Tower (Lynch et al 2021 , this issue); directing transitions when alternative ecosystem outcomes vary in desirability (e.g., Acadia National Park; Crausbay et al 2021 , this issue); or simply accepting changes while monitoring them and being ready to shift strategies if needed (Lynch et al 2021 , this issue). In the face of uncertainty, the experiments of today will be the solutions of tomorrow, so managers should be ready to try out different management approaches in different portions of their managed landscapes.…”