RAD: A Paradigm, Shifting

Williams, John W.

doi:10.1093/biosci/biab123

Cited by 13 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…In discussing RAD, Williams (2022) points out that for any given system a manager may change strategies over time, perhaps resisting change as long as feasible, then accepting change and…”

Section: Adaptive Selection Of a Rad Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In discussing RAD, Williams (2022) points out that for any given system a manager may change strategies over time, perhaps resisting change as long as feasible, then accepting change and working with it, then later directing change toward new outcomes as opportunities are perceived and valued. The approach outlined here provides a technical context for the direction and timing of such changes.…”

Section: Rad Under Uncertainty About Ecological Processesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…RAD is sometimes described as a new ecological management paradigm (e.g. Williams, 2022), though it lacks much of the technical detail necessary for actual decision making. A growing literature documents recent work on RAD by the Federal Navigating Ecological Transformation (fedNET) group and others (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Managing ecosystems with resist–accept–direct (RAD)

Williams,

Brown

2024

Methods Ecol Evol

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In recent years considerable interest has been generated in a new approach known as resist–accept–direct, or RAD, for managing ecosystems in the face of climate change. Under RAD, strategic responses to climate change are described in terms of three broad categories: resisting climate transformation, accepting the transformation and continuing to manage as best one can, and directing the transformed system toward novel ecological conditions. In particular, the potential for integrating RAD and adaptive management has been broadly considered, though absent a decision‐making framework needed for implementation. We propose a hierarchical decision scheme for RAD that accounts for strategy selection among the three RAD options, as well as adaptive decision making within each option. We use stochastic models and uncertainties about ecosystem processes to account for the dynamics of climate‐transformed ecosystems, and show how these features can be used to inform RAD strategies. Operationally, the approach involves decisions at two levels: one level involves choosing a policy for each strategy, and the second level involves deciding which strategy has the greatest policy value. The structure described here extends recent work in climate change adaptation, by including Markovian decisions under climate change, strategy‐specific policies, and value functions for assessing and selecting RAD strategies. We provide a hierarchical accounting of decisions and responses, and develop rules for the timing of those decisions. Combining RAD and adaptive management can help to organize thinking about ecological conservation under climate change, and focus attention on mechanisms for making decisions. We believe the structure presented here can facilitate conservation efforts under the non‐stationary climate conditions we are sure to face for the foreseeable future.

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“…In discussing RAD, Williams (2022) points out that for any given system a manager may change strategies over time, perhaps resisting change as long as feasible, then accepting change and…”

Section: Adaptive Selection Of a Rad Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Rad Under Uncertainty About Ecological Processesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Managing ecosystems with resist–accept–direct (RAD)

Williams,

Brown

2024

Methods Ecol Evol

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“…For example, the RAD (Resist-Accept-Direct) framework provides managers with a decision space to allow change to unfold without interference (Accept), facilitate change to new desired system states (Direct), or resist (Resist) change to undesirable states through management intervention. Underlying this decision space is the notion that climate change will drive ecological transformations in which irreversible shifts in multiple ecosystem components will alter ecosystem functioning in the long term (Williams, 2022). However, the velocity and direction of change will vary across a region (Dobrowski et al, 2013;Morelli et al, 2016), and as such, the immediacy of management need will also vary spatially.…”

Section: Introduction 1landscape Management Planning Under Climate Ch...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantitative methods for integrating climate adaptation strategies into spatial decision support models

Povak,

Manley,

Wilson

2024

Front. For. Glob. Change

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With the onset of rapid climate change and the legacy of past forest management and fire suppression policies, the capacity for forested landscapes to maintain core functionality and processes is being challenged. As such, managers are tasked with increasing the pace and scale of management to mitigate negative impacts of future large disturbances and improve resilience and climate adaptation of large landscapes. Such efforts require consensus building, with partners and stakeholders to determine where to allocate scarce resources. We present a methodology to identify strategic (where to go) and tactical (what to do) priorities across large landscapes to assist in project level planning. The model integrates a spatial assessment of current ecosystem resource conditions and spatial outputs from a landscape succession and disturbance simulation model (LANDIS-II) to assess the potential to achieve desired conditions under climate change with ongoing disturbances. Based on the expected trajectory of landscape conditions over time, the model applies fuzzy logic modeling to provide quantitative support for four management strategies (Monitor, Protect, Adapt, and Transform) across the landscape. We provide an example application of these methods targeting sustainable carbon loads across a 970,000 ha landscape in the central Sierras in California. By including future landscape conditions in the model, decisions made at the stand-level are inherently tied to and influenced by larger landscape-level processes that are likely to have the greatest impact on future landscape dynamics. The methods outlined here are able to incorporate multiple metrics to capture the many resources targeted by management. Model outputs could also be used as inputs into spatial optimization models to assess tradeoffs and synergies among treatment options and to aid in long-term planning.

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“…In many areas, tree species that experience population declines are unlikely to be replaced by other trees, and the dry forests or woodlands may be replaced by non-forested plant communities, a stark ecological transformation with lasting implications for ecosystem services and biodiversity (Allen et al, 2015;Anderegg et al, 2013). Managers worldwide are beginning to grapple with ecological transformations such as these transitions into or out of forested landscapes, and are increasingly using a three-part decision-making framework to resist, accept, or direct the ecological trajectory (e.g., the resist-accept-direct [RAD] framework; Lynch et al, 2021;Schuurman et al, 2020Schuurman et al, , 2022Williams, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Where can managers effectively resist climate‐driven ecological transformation in pinyon–juniper woodlands of the US Southwest?

Noel

Shriver

Crausbay

et al. 2023

Global Change Biology

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Pinyon–juniper (PJ) woodlands are an important component of dryland ecosystems across the US West and are potentially susceptible to ecological transformation. However, predicting woodland futures is complicated by species‐specific strategies for persisting and reproducing under drought conditions, uncertainty in future climate, and limitations to inferring demographic rates from forest inventory data. Here, we leverage new demographic models to quantify how climate change is expected to alter population demographics in five PJ tree species in the US West and place our results in the context of a climate adaptation framework to resist, accept, or direct ecological transformation. Two of five study species, Pinus edulis and Juniperus monosperma, are projected to experience population declines, driven by both rising mortality and decreasing recruitment rates. These declines are reasonably consistent across various climate futures, and the magnitude of uncertainty in population growth due to future climate is less than uncertainty due to how demographic rates will respond to changing climate. We assess the effectiveness of management to reduce tree density and mitigate competition, and use the results to classify southwest woodlands into areas where transformation is (a) unlikely and can be passively resisted, (b) likely but may be resisted by active management, and (c) likely unavoidable, requiring managers to accept or direct the trajectory. Population declines are projected to promote ecological transformation in the warmer and drier PJ communities of the southwest, encompassing 37.1%–81.1% of our sites, depending on future climate scenarios. Less than 20% of sites expected to transform away from PJ have potential to retain existing tree composition by density reduction. Our results inform where this adaptation strategy could successfully resist ecological transformation in coming decades and allow for a portfolio design approach across the geographic range of PJ woodlands.

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RAD: A Paradigm, Shifting

Cited by 13 publications

References 19 publications

Managing ecosystems with resist–accept–direct (RAD)

Managing ecosystems with resist–accept–direct (RAD)

Quantitative methods for integrating climate adaptation strategies into spatial decision support models

Where can managers effectively resist climate‐driven ecological transformation in pinyon–juniper woodlands of the US Southwest?

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