A quantitative risk analysis model with integrated deliberative Delphi platform for container shipping operational risks

Nguyen, Son; Chen, Shun-Ling; Du, Yanliang; Shi, Wenming

doi:10.1016/j.tre.2019.08.002

Cited by 50 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…In this respect, 52% of the participants were representatives of research institutions while industry and academia were represented by 41%. Previous studies showed that expertise and flow of exchanges are of higher importance than the number of participants (Nguyen, Chen et al 2019). On the other front, previous empirical evidence showed that lower number of participants than the one used in the present study could have high social acceptance (Rowe andWright 2011, Proskuryakova 2019).…”

Section: Figure 1 Distribution Of Respondents By Degree Of Expertise Per Cluster Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Foresight for sustainable energy policy in Egypt: results from a Delphi survey

Rezk¹,

Radwan²,

Salem³

et al. 2019

IRD

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This paper presents energy opportunities, particular areas of high potential and reflections on energy challenges in Egypt by the year 2040. Energy foresight significantly contributes in the effective review and formulation of national energy policies and strategies. In this work, 350 experts participated in real-time Delphi survey and responded to a set of structured and cross-linked questionnaires that aim to assess and provide future dimension to the energy sector in Egypt. Priorities are presented across 14 energy cluster-areas with 180 identified topics. The two-round Delphi study with an iterative process was performed to determine and measure the expectations of the different stakeholders with specific emphasis on the prospects of renewable energy and energy efficiency. The designed cross-linkages between survey components allowed the systematic pooling and convergence of knowledge in addition to the technical insights and different perspectives. About 50% of Egypt's energy demand was foresighted to be met by renewable energies around 2030. The results showed that all types of energy would not only provide economic and environmental benefits but also improve living standards. This work demonstrates that involving large diversity of expertise and different stakeholders, comprising heterogeneous groups, in foresight studies would potentiate the forecasting power, reduce the polarization effect, and enhance the reliability of the foresight exercise.

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Section: Figure 1 Distribution Of Respondents By Degree Of Expertise Per Cluster Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Foresight for sustainable energy policy in Egypt: results from a Delphi survey

Rezk¹,

Radwan²,

Salem³

et al. 2019

IRD

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Although they were at different positions, had different education levels and a variety of experience, it is difficult to quantify the weights of the five experts employed in this study because there are too many factors that influence their weights. Referring to [66], we set the weights for the experts to be equal, e.g., all weights are set to 0.2.…”

Section: Data Process 321 Aggregation Of Expert Opinions Using Fuzzy Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Cognitive Gap and Correlation of Safety-I and Safety-II: A Case of Maritime Shipping Safety Management

Qiao

Liu

et al. 2021

Sustainability

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In contrast to the conventional safety management principle, namely, safety-I, which focuses on “what goes wrong”, a new-born safety philosophy (safety-II) inspires people to investigate “how and why things go right”. In the present study, the cognitive difference and correlation between safety-I and safety-II in the maritime shipping industry are explored and investigated. For this purpose, a questionnaire is administered to survey seafarers and maritime experts, and semi-structured interviews are conducted to collect original data associated with safety-I and safety-II. Then, the data from seafarers and maritime experts are further processed by empirical statistical methods and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) methodology. The results show that impacting factors associated with individual aspects are usually accepted as dominant with respect to views of safety-I, while organizational factors are more influential for safety-II, which is essential to developing an organizational resilience capacity. Based on the findings and discussions, potential safety countermeasures that integrate safety-I and safety-II are proposed in this article. The present study discusses the new-born safety-II perspective to elucidate the safety issues associated with maritime shipping operations, which can be seen as the main innovation of this work.

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“…WBA [86,[146][147][148] Why Because Analysis. Bayesian networks, fuzzy logic, Monte Carlo, and Delphi procedures can be applied.…”

Section: Formal Basedmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Bayesian networks, fuzzy logic, Monte Carlo, and Delphi procedures can be applied. Formal models apply the probabilistic approach for assess the scenarios of risk with the use of Bayesian networks, being representative of the Why Because Analysis [86] method; fuzzy logic, Monte Carlo analysis, and Delphi procedure are additionally applied in the analysis of a container shipping logistic platform, and in a gas storage facility [146][147][148]. Industry 4.0 is a generic concept to improve self-control and risk identification through neural networks and machine learning; related to its application in industrial parks, it is used in inspection maintenance, construction, and environmental protection for chemical, oil and gas, and energy processes [149][150][151] Safety Barrier models.…”

Section: Formal Basedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis and Characterization of Risk Methodologies Applied to Industrial Parks

et al. 2020

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It is important to evaluate the risks in industrial parks and their processes due to the consequences of major accidents and especially the domino effect. Scientific works present a wide possibility of models to deal with these situations. In this work, based on the information extracted from the scientific literature, six groups of risk methodologies are defined, analyzed, and characterized with methods that cover the standards, preventive, probabilistic, traditional, modern, and dynamic evaluation that are applied or could be used in industrial parks. It also tries to achieve the objective of determining which are more appropriate if the possible situations and causes that can produce an accident are taken into account, identifying and evaluating them with characteristics of simultaneity and immediacy, determining the probability of an accident occurring with sufficient advance in time to avoid it under the use of a working operational procedure. There is no definitive methodology, and it is necessary that they complement each other, but considering the proposed objective, the integrated application of traditional methodologies together with the management of safety barriers, the dynamic evaluation of risks, and the inclusion of machine learning systems could fulfill the proposed objective.

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A quantitative risk analysis model with integrated deliberative Delphi platform for container shipping operational risks

Cited by 50 publications

References 56 publications

Foresight for sustainable energy policy in Egypt: results from a Delphi survey

Foresight for sustainable energy policy in Egypt: results from a Delphi survey

Cognitive Gap and Correlation of Safety-I and Safety-II: A Case of Maritime Shipping Safety Management

Analysis and Characterization of Risk Methodologies Applied to Industrial Parks

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