A Postdecisional Neural Marker of Confidence Predicts Information-Seeking in Decision-Making

Desender, Kobe; Murphy, Peter R.; Boldt, Annika; Verguts, Tom; Yeung, Nick

doi:10.1523/jneurosci.2620-18.2019

Cited by 70 publications

(69 citation statements)

References 42 publications

(59 reference statements)

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“…However, the profile of choice-related activity we observed was opposite to that of these previous evidence accumulation findings, suggesting that this may not be what is reflected in our Choice Clusters. An alternative account, that is more consistent with our findings, suggests that activity in these clusters reflected functions associated with monitoring one's decision confidence (De Martino, Fleming, Garrett, & Dolan, 2013), potentially in the service of making higher-order decisions about potential information gain (Desender, Boldt, & Yeung, 2018;Desender, Murphy, Boldt, Verguts, & Yeung, 2019), rather than functions integral to the choice process itself.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 78%

Spatiotemporally distinct neural mechanisms underlie our reactions to and comparison between value-based options

Frömer

Shenhav

2019

Preprint

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Previous research suggests that people evaluate options in at least two ways: (1) appraising their overall value and (2) choosing between them. Here we test whether these processes are temporally dissociable, with appraisal-related processes tied to the time one's options appear and choice-related processes tied to the time a decision is made. We recorded EEG while participants individually rated and subsequently made choices between consumer goods. As predicted, we found appraisal-related neural activity locked to the onset of the stimuli and choice-related activity locked to (and preceding) the response. Patterns of appraisal-and choice-related activity were further associated with distinct topographical profiles. Using a novel neural index of one's certainty about a given item's value, we also provide evidence that choices and choice-related activity were further modulated by this option-specific value certainty. Taken together, our results support the hypothesis that spatiotemporally distinct mechanisms underlie appraisal and choice, suggesting that commonly observed neural correlates of choice value may reflect either or both of these processes.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 78%

Spatiotemporally distinct neural mechanisms underlie our reactions to and comparison between value-based options

Frömer

Shenhav

2019

Preprint

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“…Confidence has typically been studied in two-alternative choice tasks, and only rarely in relation to continuous outcomes 30,34,36,[74][75][76] . By reconceptualizing error detection as outcome prediction, our results shed new light on the well-supported claim that error monitoring and confidence are tightly intertwined 32,38,[77][78][79] and forge valuable links between research on performance monitoring 39,40,67 and on learning under uncertainty 1,3,58,80 . In doing so, our results provide further evidence to the growing literature on the role of confidence in learning and behavioral adaptation [34][35][36] .…”

Section: Sensory Prediction Error and Confidence Modulate P3amentioning

confidence: 68%

I knew that! Response-based Outcome Predictions and Confidence Regulate Feedback Processing and Learning

Frömer

Nassar

Bruckner

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Influential theories emphasize the importance of predictions in learning: We learn from response outcomes and feedback to the extent that they are surprising, and thus convey new information.Here we investigated how individuals learn to predict response outcomes based on the subjective confidence and objective accuracy with which these predictions are made. We hypothesized that both of these aspects modulate how feedback is processed and that they are reflected in eventrelated potentials (ERPs) as measured using EEG. Participants performed a time estimation task with graded, performance-contingent feedback. With this design we could distinguish reward prediction errors (RPE), indexing outcome valence with regard to the goal, and output prediction errors (OPE), indexing the absolute mismatch between predicted motor outcome and actual performance. As we expected, predictions made with higher confidence were more accurate (smaller OPE), and more so as learning progressed. Further, individuals with a better correspondence between confidence judgments and prediction accuracy learned more quickly. Outcome valence, as indexed by RPE was reflected in the feedback-related negativity (FRN). In contrast, P3a amplitude increased with OPE and confidence, that is with the degree of surprise about the outcome. Finally, performance-relevant information converged in the P3b component with confidence modulating RPE effects in early trials while learning took place. Taken together, the results underline the significance of different aspects of predictions and suggest a role of confidence in learning. CONFIDENCE IN PREDICTIONS AND FEEDBACK regulation of the decision process both within and between individuals (Bahrami et al., 2010; Shea et al., 2014). Both of these forms of performance evaluationerror detection and confidence (Yeung & Summerfield, 2012)require sufficient knowledge about the task at hand.However, little is currently known about how people learn to make these evaluations as they master new skills, and this is particularly true in the context of tasks involving continuous response parameters-as in motor control, e.g., when throwing at a target-where errors are inevitable and graded, as compared with the simpler case of a binary, categorical choice. CONFIDENCE IN PREDICTIONS AND FEEDBACK 4In the present study we used this framework of confidence and error detection as a form of outcome prediction to investigate how individuals learn to accurately evaluate responses along two key dimensions: 1) predicting action outcomesi.e., how people learn to accurately predict the direction and magnitude of a potential error, and 2) accurately indicating confidencei.e., how people learn to calibrate their confidence judgments such that higher confidence correlates with more accurate predictions. We further studied how these internal evaluations affect the encoding of feedback information as it is reflected in event-related potentials (ERPs) of the EEG.

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“…Furthermore, confidence has been shown to guide high-level strategic choices: People employ cognitive offloading strategies, such as setting external reminders, more often when unconfident that they will succeed without external help (Boldt & Gilbert, 2019;Gilbert, 2015;Hu, Luo, & Fleming, 2019); confidence guides decisions regarding whether to choose the option which is currently believed to have the best outcome, or explore new alternatives in the hope of finding an even better option (Boldt, Blundell, & De Martino, 2019); and people choose to engage more with tasks in which they experience higher confidence in their performance (Carlebach & Yeung, 2020). Of particular relevance to the present study, two recent studies demonstrated that the amount of information people gather before committing to a choice depends on their subjective confidence, with people seeking out more information when they are initially less confident (Desender, Boldt, & Yeung, 2018;Desender, Murphy, Boldt, Verguts, & Yeung, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 79%

Flexible use of confidence to guide advice requests

Carlebach¹,

Yeung²

2020

Preprint

Self Cite

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A growing body of evidence indicates that subjective confidence plays an important role in guiding behaviour. Past studies have demonstrated a fixed relationship between confidence and behaviour, so that low confidence leads to one course of action, and high confidence to another. Here, we tested whether people display flexibility in their use of confidence, so that the mapping between confidence and behaviour is not necessarily fixed, but can instead vary depending on the specific context. This proposal was studied in three experiments, testing the hypothesis that the seemingly natural relationship between low confidence and advice requests varies according to whether people know, or do not know, the quality of the advice. Participants made an initial perceptual judgement, and then had to choose between re-sampling evidence or receiving advice from a virtual advisor, before making a final decision. The results from these experiments showed that, when no objective information about advisor reliability was available, people selected advice more often when their confidence was high rather than low, reflecting the use of confidence as a feedback proxy to learn about advisor quality. Importantly, participants were able to learn about the value of advice even in the absence of feedback and subsequently selected more advice from better advisors, indicating the value of using confidence in this way. In contrast, when participants had prior knowledge about the reliability of advisors, they requested advice more often when confidence was low, reflecting the use of confidence as a self-monitoring tool signalling that help should be solicited. These findings indicate that people use confidence in a way that is context-dependent and directed towards achieving their current goals.

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A Postdecisional Neural Marker of Confidence Predicts Information-Seeking in Decision-Making

Cited by 70 publications

References 42 publications

Spatiotemporally distinct neural mechanisms underlie our reactions to and comparison between value-based options

Spatiotemporally distinct neural mechanisms underlie our reactions to and comparison between value-based options

I knew that! Response-based Outcome Predictions and Confidence Regulate Feedback Processing and Learning

Flexible use of confidence to guide advice requests

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