A novel integrated modelling framework to assess the impacts of climate and socio-economic drivers on land use and water quality

Zessner, Matthias; Schönhart, Martin; Parajka, J.; Trautvetter, Helene; Mitter, Hermine; Kirchner, Mathias; Hepp, Gerold; Blaschke, Alfred Paul; Strenn, B.; Schmid, Erwin

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.11.092

Cited by 54 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…Anthropogenic-related drivers such as population growth (Geist et al 2006;Meshesha et al 2014), urbanization (d'Amour et al 2017Wang et al 2016;Yirsaw et al 2017), agricultural expansion (Ramankutty et al 2006;Mustard et al 2012), pasturing (Wassenaar et al 2007), and global market forces (Lambin & Meyfroidt 2011;Lambin et al 2003) are among the known drivers of LULCC. Besides such basic human-related drivers, recent studies indicated that climate change vulnerability has a significant forcing effect on LULCC (Biazin & Sterk 2013;Kindu et al 2015;Lambin et al 2003;Reid et al 2000;Zessner et al 2017). This could be possible through its direct effect, for example, the effect of recurrent drought on land cover and crop productivity (Ravindranath & Sathaye 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This could be possible through its direct effect, for example, the effect of recurrent drought on land cover and crop productivity (Ravindranath & Sathaye 2002). Climate change could also indirectly affect LULCC by increasing the demand for more croplands and by forcing climate change vulnerable communities to adjust their land use choices in order to cope up with such changes (Messina et al 2014;Zessner et al 2017). This is particularly true in developing countries where agriculture is the backbone of the economy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Drivers of Land Use-Land Cover Changes in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

Bekele¹,

Wu²,

Yirsaw³

2019

JSM

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Land use-land cover change (LULCC) is driven by the interplay of forcing factors that act at global, regional, and local levels. Previous studies investigated mainly the basic socioeconomic drivers of LULCC. However, these studies less considered climate change vulnerability as a potential driver. Hence, this study is aimed to assess LULCC drivers in more fragile and dynamic landscapes of the East African Rift Valley region for the period of 1986-2016. We used a combination of Remote Sensing, Geographic Information System, logistic regression, and descriptive statistics to quantify and analyze the data. Image analysis results indicated that during the overall study period (1986-2016), grass/ grazing land, agricultural land, and bare land have increased by 124%, 42%, and 34% respectively, whereas scattered acacia woodland, bush/shrubland, and swampy/marshy land have declined by 52%, 50%, and 31%, in that order. This image-derived change trend is in line with farmers' perceived results. The top most influential drivers of LULCC includes population growth (95%), fuelwood extraction (93%), agricultural land expansion (92%), charcoal making (92%), climate change/recurrent drought (79%), and overgrazing (71%) in descending order of percentage of respondents. Education level and age of farmers significantly (p<0.05) affected their perception towards less perceived drivers. Hence, in order to reduce the adverse socio-environmental impacts of spectacular LULCC in the region, policy and decision makers need to take into account such principal drivers, particularly population growth and climate change.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers of Land Use-Land Cover Changes in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

Bekele¹,

Wu²,

Yirsaw³

2019

JSM

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“…increasing the mineralisation of organic matter, decreasing oxygen solubility, increasing the variability in pH values and increasing growth rates of aquatic organisms. A lower water availability might affect the quality of surface water resources adversely and even have a significant negative impact on human health and the economic development of the entire region [7,8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The facts show that effects of climate change have not been properly addressed in policy formulation and water resource management strategies in many regions around the world, probably due to the lack of accurate and reliable data on the possible effects of climate change on water resources. Nitrogen pollution is already considered as a global problem [11], and it is expected that N loss will aggravate in vulnerable areas due to climate change [5,8]. For this, it is of upmost importance to assess and quantify the impacts of climate change and vulnerability of water resources and evaluate the efficiency of possible adaptation and mitigation policies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Expected Impact of Climate Change on Nitrate Load in a Small Atlantic Agro-Forested Catchment

Rodríguez‐Blanco¹,

Arias²,

Taboada-Castro³

2019

Climate Change and Global Warming

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Climate change is likely to have profound impacts on quality of water resources, by altering the magnitude and timing of nutrient delivery to stream network. However, water quality responses to climate change are difficult to predict, especially for nutrient loads because of combined uncertainties in water quality and quantity projections. In this study, the potential medium (2031-2060) and long-term (2069-2098) impacts of project changes in climate variables (temperature, rainfall and CO 2 concentration) on nitrate load in an Atlantic agro-forested catchment (NW Spain) were assessed using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model. Climate change scenarios are based on data projected by regional models from the ENSEMBLES project and two CO 2 concentration scenarios. The results showed that nitrate load will increase in the future horizons (2031-2060, 6%; 2069-2098, 7%) in relation to current values (1981-2010), possibly due to the decline in grassland biomass, as well as an increase in the rate of mineralisation linked to the increase in temperature. Consequently, lower rates of fertilisers will be needed in these areas in future horizons, which should be taken into consideration when planning management strategies in order to mitigate the impacts of potential climate change.

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“…Bockstael et al, 1995;Volk et al, 2008;Marta-Costa et al, 2013;Cordier et al, 2017;Zessner et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Ecological-Economic (Eco-Eco) Modelling in the River Basins of Mountainous Regions: Impact of Land Cover Changes on Sediment Yield in the Velicka Rijeka, Montenegro

Spalević

Lakičević

Radanovic³

et al. 2017

Not Bot Horti Agrobo

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This paper presents an Ecological-Economic (Eco-Eco) modelling using the Intensity of Erosion and Outflow (IntErO) model for calculation of sediment yield and runoff assessing the impacts of different land covers on soil erosion intensity. Calculations have been made for the Velicka River basin, which is one of 57 sub-basins of the Lim River in the Northeast Montenegro. Several different land use scenarios were then simulated in the model in order to find the optimal scenario of land use for intensive seed potato production. The results of Ecological (Eco-) analysis shown that the real soil loss under current conditions is 18148 m³yr -1 . If seed potato production is introduced, the model calculated a soil loss of 20834 m³yr -1 as sediment yield. In order to balance the damage caused by the introduction of seed potato production we considered also the ecological measure of afforestation to reduce soil loss caused by seed potato production. The model calculated that afforestation would result in a decrease of sediment yield to 17886 m³yr -1 . The results of Economic (-Eco) analysis revealed that the investment of €3,385 per ha for the establishment of the seed potato production will provide the income for the farmers of €15,000 per hectare annually. In parallel, we proposed the investment for the protection of the area (258 ha) with afforestation that amounts to €330,608 (€1,281 per ha), for the period of two years, with no other costs in the next decade. The research results demonstrate that the application of the Eco-Eco modelling, by using the IntErO model for studying the effect of soil erosion and possible land use for intensive seed potato production in the Velicka River Basin provides cost effective solutions for the benefit of the local population.

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A novel integrated modelling framework to assess the impacts of climate and socio-economic drivers on land use and water quality

Cited by 54 publications

References 51 publications

Drivers of Land Use-Land Cover Changes in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

Drivers of Land Use-Land Cover Changes in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

Assessing the Expected Impact of Climate Change on Nitrate Load in a Small Atlantic Agro-Forested Catchment

Ecological-Economic (Eco-Eco) Modelling in the River Basins of Mountainous Regions: Impact of Land Cover Changes on Sediment Yield in the Velicka Rijeka, Montenegro

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