Assessing the Expected Impact of Climate Change on Nitrate Load in a Small Atlantic Agro-Forested Catchment

Abstract

Climate change is likely to have profound impacts on quality of water resources, by altering the magnitude and timing of nutrient delivery to stream network. However, water quality responses to climate change are difficult to predict, especially for nutrient loads because of combined uncertainties in water quality and quantity projections. In this study, the potential medium (2031-2060) and long-term (2069-2098) impacts of project changes in climate variables (temperature, rainfall and CO 2 concentration) on nitrate load in an Atlantic agro-forested catchment (NW Spain) were assessed using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model. Climate change scenarios are based on data projected by regional models from the ENSEMBLES project and two CO 2 concentration scenarios. The results showed that nitrate load will increase in the future horizons (2031-2060, 6%; 2069-2098, 7%) in relation to current values (1981-2010), possibly due to the decline in grassland biomass, as well as an increase in the rate of mineralisation linked to the increase in temperature. Consequently, lower rates of fertilisers will be needed in these areas in future horizons, which should be taken into consideration when planning management strategies in order to mitigate the impacts of potential climate change.

A Forecasting and Prediction Methodology for Improving the Blue Economy Resilience to Climate Change in the Romanian Lower Danube Euroregion

“…The nitrite-nitrogen, ammoniumnitrogen and total nitrogen registered an upward trend (Figures A10-A12), while nitrate registered a decrease (Figure A9). However, there are studies which predicted an increase in the nitrate concertation as well as an increase in the rate of mineralization linked to the increase in temperature [91]. This scenario was confirmed by the significant upward trend lines registered for TP, Mg and Ca (Figures A13-A15).…”

Predicting Potential Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Nitrate Pollution and Risk in an Intensely Cultivated Area of South Asia

“…Previous studies reporting GW NO 3 distribution considering climate change scenarios mostly used physically based hydrological models that rely solely on the critical hydrological variables that are site-specific, and their applicability is limited to smaller extents. ,− Thus, to have a more inclusive understanding of the impact of climate changes on external and intrinsic environmental factors of groundwater quality in a large study area, a more rigorous and novel approach that relies on in situ observations and scenario considerations is required. With recent computational advancements, the machine learning (ML) approaches are receiving wide applications in hydrologic studies as these models can incorporate site-specific and spatially inclusive variables and generate accurate predictions at various areal extents.…”

Effects of agricultural activities on water quality: catchment-scale modeling of nutrient pollution and management in cultivated lands, case studies of northern spain and southeastern sweden

“…Liu et al, 2013). Despite several studies on streamflow and hydrological response to climate change, there has been very little research on the effects of climate change on water quality (Ficklin et al, 2010;Luz Rodríguez-Blanco et al, 2019;Martínková et al, 2011;Molina-Navarro et al, 2014).…”