Monitoring the impact of current Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) management practices on future Ecosystem Services (ESs) provisioning has been emphasized because of the effect of such practices on ecological sustainability. We sought to model and predict the impacts of future LULC changes on subsequent changes in Ecosystem Service Value (ESV) in fragile environments undergoing complex LULC changes, Su-Xi-Chang region. After mapping and classifying the LULC for the years 1990, 2000, and 2010 using GIS and remote sensing, a Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov model was employed to model future LULC changes for the year 2020. ESV was predicted using the projected LULC data and the modified ES coefficients adopted by Xie et al. (2003). The projected results of the changes in LULC reveal that construction land expanded extensively, mainly at the expense of farmland, wetland, and water bodies. The predicted results of the ESVs indicate that water bodies and farmland are the dominant LULC categories, accounting for 90% of the total ESV. Over the study period, ESVs were diminished by 7.3915 billion CNY, mostly because of the decrease in farmland, water bodies, and wetland. A reasonable land use plan should be developed with an emphasis on controlling construction land encroachment on farmland, wetlands, and water bodies. The rules of ecological protection should be followed in LULC management to preserve ecological resources.Sustainability 2017, 9, 1204 2 of 17 genetic resources and nutrient cycling [7][8][9], erosion control and climate regulation [10], and water availability and soil fertility [11]. The consequences of these changes result in the degradation of ESs, which is the aggregate of ecosystem goods (such as food) and services (such as waste assimilation), that represent the benefits human populations derive, directly or indirectly, from ecosystem functions [12]. These impacts make the quantification of Ecosystem Service Values (ESVs) essential to raise awareness [13], develop decision making for the distribution of scarce resources among conflicting demands [14], incorporate ESs into the socioeconomic and marketing systems [15], formulate policy [16] and stimulate the conservation of ecosystems that deliver the most valuable services in support of human well-being [17].Following the pioneering works of Costanza et al. [18], who estimated global ESVs by suggesting a list of ESV coefficients for different biomes, the evaluation of ESVs and their changes has received broad attention [15,16,19]. Since then, to support mitigations of local degradation and global change problems, the interest in the valuation of ESs has grown rapidly in research and policy making communities. In particular, the dynamics of ESVs in response to changes in LULC have been widely considered in various academic fields [20][21][22][23]. For instance, in northwest China [12], LULC changes driven mainly by the expansion of oasis agriculture, significantly impact ESVs and the functions of the Yanqi basin, by causing land degradation and changes in aquat...

Human pressure on a rugged and fragile landscape can cause land use/cover changes that significantly alter the provision of ecosystem services. Estimating the multiple services, particularly those obtained from agroforestry systems, is seldom attempted. A combined approach of geospatial technology, cross-sectional field investigations, and economic valuation of natural capital was used to develop an ecosystem service valuation (ESV) model to estimate changes in ESV between 1986 and 2015 in southern Ethiopia. Over 120 values were sourced, mainly from an ecosystem service valuation database and allied sources, to establish value coefficients via benefit transfer method. Our 1848 km 2 study landscape, with eight land use categories, yielded an annual total ESV of $129 × 10 6 in 1986 and $147 × 10 6 in 2015, a 14.2% ($18.3 million) increase in three decades, showing its relative resilience. Yet we observed losses of natural vegetation classes whose area and/or value coefficients were too small to offset their increased value from expanding agroforestry and wetland/marshes, which have the largest cover share and highest economic value, respectively. Appreciating the unique features of agroforests, we strongly recommend that their economic value is studied as a separate ecosystem for further valuation accuracy improvement.

Characterized by high population density on a rugged topography, the Gedeo-Abaya landscape dominantly contains a multi-strata traditional agroforests showing the insight of Gedeo farmers on natural resource management practices. Currently, this area has been losing its resilience and is becoming unable to sustain its inhabitants. Based on both RS-derived and GIS-computed land-use/cover changes (LUCC) as well as socioeconomic validations, this article explored the LUCC and agroecological-based driver patterns in Gedeo-Abaya landscape from 1986 to 2015. A combination of geo-spatial technology and cross-sectional survey design were employed to detect the drivers behind these changes. The article discussed that LUCC and the prevalence of drivers are highly diverse and vary throughout agroecological zones. Except for the population, most downstream top drivers are perceived as insignificant in the upstream region and vice versa. In the downstream, land-use/cover (LUC) classes are more dynamic, diverse, and challenged by nearly all anticipated drivers than are upstream ones. Agroforestry LUC has been increasing (by 25% of its initial cover) and is becoming the predominant cover type, although socioeconomic analysis and related findings show its rapid LUC modification. A rapid reduction of woodland/shrubland (63%) occurred in the downstream, while wetland/marshy land increased threefold (158%), from 1986 to 2015 with annual change rates of - 3.7 and + 6%, respectively. Land degradation induced by changes in land use is a serious problem in Africa, especially in the densely populated sub-Saharan regions such as Ethiopia (FAO 2015). Throughout the landscape, LUCC is prominently affecting land-use system of the study landscape due to population pressure in the upstream region and drought/rainfall variability, agribusiness investment, and charcoaling in the downstream that necessitate urgent action.

Abstract. Providing goods and services, while maintaining ecosystem service functions and biodiversity that built up their sustainable supply to support human welfare, is one of the great challenges of our time. This study examined the dynamics of land use land cover (LULC) changes, temporal variation of ecosystem service value (ESV), the threatened ecosystem services function in Su-Xi-Chang region, and explore the consequences of unsustainable use of land resources on ESV provision. Remote sensing applications were used to evaluate changes in LULC, and an evaluation method for ESV based on land cover change was applied in 2000, 2005 and 2010. Our study investigated that change in ESV was caused mainly due to the expansion of construction land, which was increased by 88% during the study period. Meanwhile, ESV dropped from 57.1775 x 10 9 CNY in 2000 to 53.7585 x 10 9 CNY in 2010. Ecosystem service function for food provision was the most critically affected followed by climate and gas regulation functions respectively. Waste treatment and water supply were the two largest services functions provided by ecosystems of the area. The expansion of construction land, which have due impact on LULC change, is likely responsible for the overall decline in 3.4190 billion CNY ESV of the region. As they have showed the highest ESV and greatest degradation during the study period, protection of farmland and water bodies should be paid due attention by regional land use planning and policy making offices. As a result, sustainable use of land resources and mitigation of the declining ESV of the region will be realized.

The analysis of land use/land cover (LULC) change has always been a topic of interest in land dynamics research. The majority of previous studies used the conventional method of "net change" analysis to show spatiotemporal LULC transitions. However, such analysis failed to indicate whether the transition is clearly systematic or due to an apparently random process. Hence, this study aimed to identify the most prominent signals of landscape transitions over the last three decades, using the landscapes of East African Rift Valley Region. We used Remote Sensing and GIS to quantify and map the changes in LULC for 1986 and 2016, and then the two maps compared to produce transition matrices. Results show that net change and swap change accounted for 43% and 57% of total change on the landscape respectively. Accordingly, 6% of scattered acacia woodland and 5% of bush land have been converted to agricultural land, whereas 7% and 3% of scattered acacia woodland have been degraded towards grazing land and bush land respectively. These changes were found to be clearly systematic and hence indicate the dominant and prominent signals of landscape transformation. Hence, future land use policies need to consider such prominent signals of LULC change in order to plan an integrated approach to safeguard the fragile ecosystems of the region, while searching for alternative livelihood options.

Land use-land cover change (LULCC) is driven by the interplay of forcing factors that act at global, regional, and local levels. Previous studies investigated mainly the basic socioeconomic drivers of LULCC. However, these studies less considered climate change vulnerability as a potential driver. Hence, this study is aimed to assess LULCC drivers in more fragile and dynamic landscapes of the East African Rift Valley region for the period of 1986-2016. We used a combination of Remote Sensing, Geographic Information System, logistic regression, and descriptive statistics to quantify and analyze the data. Image analysis results indicated that during the overall study period (1986-2016), grass/ grazing land, agricultural land, and bare land have increased by 124%, 42%, and 34% respectively, whereas scattered acacia woodland, bush/shrubland, and swampy/marshy land have declined by 52%, 50%, and 31%, in that order. This image-derived change trend is in line with farmers' perceived results. The top most influential drivers of LULCC includes population growth (95%), fuelwood extraction (93%), agricultural land expansion (92%), charcoal making (92%), climate change/recurrent drought (79%), and overgrazing (71%) in descending order of percentage of respondents. Education level and age of farmers significantly (p<0.05) affected their perception towards less perceived drivers. Hence, in order to reduce the adverse socio-environmental impacts of spectacular LULCC in the region, policy and decision makers need to take into account such principal drivers, particularly population growth and climate change.

Unregulated land use/cover change (LUCC) has imposed significant local, regional and global impacts on livelihood and environment, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Previous studies well documented the extent and drivers of such spectacular LUCC in East Africa. However, data on regional/local impacts particularly that combine its socioeconomic and environmental effects are very scanty currently. Hence, this study is aimed to assess the socio-environmental impacts of LUCC in more dynamic and fragile landscapes of the Ethiopian Central Rift Valley lakes region. We used a combination of data from Remote Sensing, GIS-based processing, household survey and meteorological stations to quantify and analyze LUCC impacts. Results indicated that a rapid LUCC has occurred in the region over the last three decades which imposed a number of socioeconomic and environment-related impacts. Based on the percentage of respondent farmers, climate change (95%), soil productivity decline (94%), land degradation (92%), shortage of wood (91%), shortage of grazing land (89%), soil erosion (88%), loss of biodiversity (81%) and lake water retreat (74%), are the principal impacts of LUCC perceived. Such perceived impacts of LUCC are in line with the observed results obtained from comprehensive measured data analysis. Future land use policies need to consider management options that work on reducing anthropogenic-induced pressures on the environment and encouraging livelihood diversification in order to minimize the adverse socio-environmental impacts of spectacular LUCC in the region.

Abstract. The rapid economic development resulting from Chinese economic reform has greatly accelerated urbanization and industrialization, thus leading to alterations in the natural landscape. Understanding the extent of these changes is important for regional sustainable land management. An integrated approach with a geographic information system and remote sensing was used to extract land use/land cover (LULC) change information for the Su-Xi-Chang region over the period of 1980 to 2010. To calculate the dimensions of fragmentation and to observe changes in spatial patterns, FRAGSTATS was used. Major drivers were determined through bivariate statistical analysis of socioeconomic data sources. Three change matrices were constructed for detecting LULC changes from 1980 to 1990, 1990 to 2000, and 2000 to 2010. In the study period, farmland, water bodies and wetlands significantly decreased. However, construction land, grassland and woodlands increased considerably. The pattern and composition of the landscape exhibited significant fragmentation for the whole area. Socioeconomic analysis showed that population growth and economic development, urbanization and subsequent construction land expansion, and industrialization were the major socioeconomic drivers of LULC changes. Changes in farmland resulted in decreases in area and production that might impair ecological functions and decrease food production. Therefore, better land use policy would address the consequences of the loss of the natural landscape due to drastic socioeconomic drivers in the region. Further research along these lines should be encouraged, because additional studies will be helpful for the decision makers engaged in planning activities at various levels.