2022
DOI: 10.3389/fenvs.2022.825233
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A New Technique to Quantify the Local Predictability of Extreme Events: The Backward Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Exponent Method

Abstract: Extreme weather events have a large impact on society, but are challenging to forecast accurately. In this study, we carried out a theoretical investigation of the local predictability of extreme weather events using the Lorenz model. We introduce a new method using the backward nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent to quantitatively estimate the local predictability limits of extreme events. The local predictability limits of extreme events on an individual orbit of a dynamical trajectory are broadly the same, wh… Show more

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Cited by 4 publications
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“…In the particular example of the variability of the global surface temperature, most credible climate models show practically constant variance of a climate ensemble over the last century [see, e.g., (Deser et al, 2020;Ghil and Lucarini, 2020;Pierini and Ghil, 2021;Herein et al, 2023)]. We note that the field of predicting and studying local extreme events evolves in conjunction with dynamical systems theory (Ansmann et al, 2013;Lucarini et al, 2014;Bódai, 2015;Mishra et al, 2020;Li et al, 2022). We note that due to the chaos-like nature of the atmosphere (and other climate-and weather-related spheres of Earth) weather and climate "predictions" share that meaningful results are gained by ensemble methods only (Inness and Dorling, 2013;Deser, 2020).…”
mentioning
confidence: 81%
“…In the particular example of the variability of the global surface temperature, most credible climate models show practically constant variance of a climate ensemble over the last century [see, e.g., (Deser et al, 2020;Ghil and Lucarini, 2020;Pierini and Ghil, 2021;Herein et al, 2023)]. We note that the field of predicting and studying local extreme events evolves in conjunction with dynamical systems theory (Ansmann et al, 2013;Lucarini et al, 2014;Bódai, 2015;Mishra et al, 2020;Li et al, 2022). We note that due to the chaos-like nature of the atmosphere (and other climate-and weather-related spheres of Earth) weather and climate "predictions" share that meaningful results are gained by ensemble methods only (Inness and Dorling, 2013;Deser, 2020).…”
mentioning
confidence: 81%