The backward nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent and its application to quantifying the local predictability of extreme high-temperature events

Li, Xuan; Ding, Ruiqiang

doi:10.1007/s00382-022-06469-w

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…In the present study, SPAI 90d or 30d and STAI 90d or 30d , that is, SAI of 90‐ and 30‐day precipitation and 2‐m air temperature, are used to describe meteorological droughts and concurrent near‐surface temperature anomalies at seasonal and monthly scales. Meanwhile, the traditional percentile‐based indices are usually employed to describe the anomaly degrees of synoptic extremes, such as extreme precipitations (Wang et al, 2022), heat waves (Fang & Lu, 2020; Li et al, 2023; Vogel et al, 2020; Wang et al, 2013, 2016) and cold surges (Dai et al, 2022; Li et al, 2022; Zhang et al, 2022a) on historical records. Therefore, the present study also provides percentile‐based indices (e.g., P ExtrePreci,1d , P Heat,1d and P Cold,1d ) prepared for the detection of synoptic extremes.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Glo3DHydroClimEventSet(v1.0): A global‐scale event set of hydroclimatic extremes detected with the 3D DBSCAN‐based workflow (1951–2022)

Liu,

Zhou

2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The emergency of global‐scale hydroclimatic extremes (i.e., meteorological droughts, extreme precipitations, heat waves and cold surges) and associated compound events has recently drawn much attention. A global‐scale unified and comprehensive event set with accurate information on spatiotemporal evolutions is necessary for better mechanism understanding and reliable predictions in sequential studies. Accordingly, this manuscript describes the first‐generation global event‐based database of hydroclimatic extremes produced with the newly proposed 3D (longitude–latitude–time) DBSCAN‐based workflow of event detection. The short name of this database is Glo3DHydroClimEventSet(v1.0), which is obtained from the FigsharePlus webpage (https://doi.org/10.25452/figshare.plus.23564517). The 1951–2022 ERA5‐based multiscale and multi‐threshold daily running datasets of precipitation and near‐surface air temperature are calculated and employed as the input data. A comprehensive event set of hydroclimate extremes is the output of the 3D DBSCAN‐based workflow. From perspectives of spatiotemporal evolutions, this event‐based database is also measured and attached with metric information. For case‐based validation, some recently reported hydroclimatic extremes (e.g., the 2020 summertime flood‐inducing Yangtze River extreme precipitation event) are employed and accurately detected in the Glo3DHydroClimEventSet(v1.0) database. Meanwhile, global‐scale spatiotemporal distributions are preliminarily analysed. For example, global‐scale event counts of extreme heatwaves displayed an increasing tendency since 2005, with a rapid increase after 2010. To sum up, this Glo3DHydroClimEventSet(v1.0) database may facilitate new scientific achievements concerning event‐based hydroclimatic extremes, especially in communities of atmosphere, hydrology, natural hazards and associated socioeconomics.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Glo3DHydroClimEventSet(v1.0): A global‐scale event set of hydroclimatic extremes detected with the 3D DBSCAN‐based workflow (1951–2022)

Liu,

Zhou

2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…On the other hand, the Jacobian/indirect approach requires fitting a delayed embedding model (with embedding dimension and lag) to the available time series and calculating the LE from the Jacobian matrix of the model (Nychka et al, 1992). A variety of methods may be used to estimate unknown model frameworks, such as generalized additive models (GAMs) (Benincà et al, 2015), neural networks (Ellner and Turchin, 1995), local linear regression (Sugihara, 1994), and non-linear local LE (Li and Ding, 2022). In particular, to accurately predict the model framework of empirical data, the Jacobian/indirect method usually requires the incorporation of abiotic factors (e.g., temperature) into the system, which inevitably increases the data quality requirements.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Models in Population, Community and Ecosystem Dynamics

Cherif,

Kolasa,

Wang

2024

Frontiers Research Topics

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Frontiers is more than just an open access publisher of scholarly articles: it is a pioneering approach to the world of academia, radically improving the way scholarly research is managed. The grand vision of Frontiers is a world where all people have an equal opportunity to seek, share and generate knowledge. Frontiers provides immediate and permanent online open access to all its publications, but this alone is not enough to realize our grand goals. Frontiers journal seriesThe Frontiers journal series is a multi-tier and interdisciplinary set of openaccess, online journals, promising a paradigm shift from the current review, selection and dissemination processes in academic publishing. All Frontiers journals are driven by researchers for researchers; therefore, they constitute a service to the scholarly community. At the same time, the Frontiers journal series operates on a revolutionary invention, the tiered publishing system, initially addressing specific communities of scholars, and gradually climbing up to broader public understanding, thus serving the interests of the lay society, too. Dedication to qualityEach Frontiers article is a landmark of the highest quality, thanks to genuinely collaborative interactions between authors and review editors, who include some of the world's best academicians. Research must be certified by peers before entering a stream of knowledge that may eventually reach the public -and shape society; therefore, Frontiers only applies the most rigorous and unbiased reviews. Frontiers revolutionizes research publishing by freely delivering the most outstanding research, evaluated with no bias from both the academic and social point of view. By applying the most advanced information technologies, Frontiers is catapulting scholarly publishing into a new generation. What are Frontiers Research Topics?Frontiers Research Topics are very popular trademarks of the Frontiers journals series: they are collections of at least ten articles, all centered on a particular subject. With their unique mix of varied contributions from Original Research to Review Articles, Frontiers Research Topics unify the most influential researchers, the latest key findings and historical advances in a hot research area.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Limited predictability of body length in a fish population

Wang

2022

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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Recent theoretical studies have identified chaotic dynamics in eco-evolutionary models. Yet, empirical evidence for eco-evolutionary chaos in natural ecosystems is lacking. In this study, we combine analyses of empirical data and an eco-evolutionary model to uncover chaotic dynamics of body length in a fish population (northeast Arctic cod: Gadus morhua). Consistent with chaotic attractors, the largest Lyapunov exponent (LE) of empirical data is positive, and approximately matches the LE of the model calculation, thus suggesting the potential for chaotic dynamics in this fish population. We also find that the autocorrelation function (ACF) of both empirical data and eco-evolutionary model shows a similar lag of approximately 7 years. Our combined analyses of natural time series and mathematical models suggest that chaotic dynamics of a phenotypic trait may be driven by trait evolution. This finding supports a growing theory that eco-evolutionary feedbacks can produce chaotic dynamics.

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The backward nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent and its application to quantifying the local predictability of extreme high-temperature events

Cited by 7 publications

References 55 publications

Glo3DHydroClimEventSet(v1.0): A global‐scale event set of hydroclimatic extremes detected with the 3D DBSCAN‐based workflow (1951–2022)

Glo3DHydroClimEventSet(v1.0): A global‐scale event set of hydroclimatic extremes detected with the 3D DBSCAN‐based workflow (1951–2022)

Models in Population, Community and Ecosystem Dynamics

Limited predictability of body length in a fish population

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