A new composite Holocene sea-level curve for the northern Gulf of Mexico

Milliken, Kristy T.; Anderson, John B.; Rodriguez, Antonio B.

doi:10.1130/2008.2443(01)

Cited by 51 publications

(66 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Anderson et al [1991], Andrews [1967], Anuskiewicz [1988], Blum et al [2001], Blum et al [2003], Brannon et al [1957], Broecker and Kulp [1957], Broecker et al [1956], Byrne [1975], Coleman [1966], Coleman and Smith [1964], Cronin et al [2007], Curray [1960], Davies [1980], Faught [1996], Faught and Donoghue [1997], Frazier [1967, 1974, Törnqvist [2009], Goodbred [1994], Goodbred et al [1998], Gould and McFarlan [1959], Greene et al [2007], Kuehn [1980], Kulp et al [1952], Li et al [2012], Lighty et al [1978Lighty et al [ , 1982, Fearn [1993, 2000], Livsey and Simms [2013], Locker et al [1996], Lopez and Rink [2008], Maddox et al [2008], Mathews [1981], Mathews and Kearns [1981], McBride [1997], Miller [1983], Milliken et al [2008aMilliken et al [ , 2008bMilliken et al [ , 2008c, Morton et al [2000], Nelson and Bray [1970], Otvos [1981Otvos [ , 1985Otvos [ , 1991Otvos [ , 2004, …”

Section: Appendix A: Database Acknowledgmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment to projections of sea‐level change along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of North America

et al. 2016

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We determine the contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) to future relative sea-level change for the North American coastline between Newfoundland and Texas. We infer GIA model parameters using recently compiled and quality-assessed databases of past sea-level changes, including new databases for the United States Gulf Coast and Atlantic Canada. At 13 cities along this coastline, we estimate the GIA contribution to range from a few centimeters (e.g., 3 [−1 to 9] cm Miami) to a few decimeters (e.g., 18 [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22] cm, Halifax) for the period 2085-2100 relative to 2006-2015 (1− ranges given). We provide estimates of uncertainty in the GIA component using two different methods; the more conservative approach produces total ranges (1− confidence) that vary from 3 to 16 cm for the cities considered. Contributions from ocean steric and dynamic changes as well as those from changes in land ice are also estimated to provide context for the GIA projections. When summing the contributions from all three processes at the 13 cities considered along this coastline, using median or best-estimate values, the GIA signal comprises 5-38% of the total depending on the adopted climate forcing and location. The contributions from ocean dynamic/steric changes and ice mass loss are similar in amplitude but with spatial variation that approximately cancels, resulting in GIA dominating the net spatial variability north of 35 ∘ N.

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Section: Appendix A: Database Acknowledgmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment to projections of sea‐level change along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of North America

et al. 2016

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“…At Half Moon Bay, excavation near the center of the beach for construction of the Playa Caribe Condominiums revealed mangrove peat below the beach sand, which is assumed to be continuous with peat found within the surf zone. Samples of peat for radiocarbon dating were collected from the surf zone, and results were compared with the recent sea level curves of Milliken, Anderson, and Rodriguez, (2008) and of Toscano and Macintyre (2003) and with records of modern earthquakes, tsunami, and hurricanes in the Caribbean Basin.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Indications of a sea level above present within the last 4000 years, such as eroded notches, have been proposed by Morton, Paine, and Blum (2000). Milliken, Anderson, and Rodriguez (2008) interpret their data from the central Gulf coast to indicate that such a rise would have to have been brief and ,2 m in height.…”

Section: Age Of the Bermmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to the curves of Milliken, Anderson, and Rodriguez (2008), sea level on the northern Gulf of Mexico was within 2 m of modern levels at around 4000 YBP. The curve of Toscano and Macintyre (2003) for the Caribbean is in close agreement.…”

Section: Age Of the Bermmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Twosigma calibrated ages for two samples (1390( -1567( and 1348( -1613Stuiver, Reimer, and Reimer, 2005) are plotted as a single point enclosed by a large circle on the sea level curve of Milliken, Anderson, and Rodriguez (2008) in Figure 11 and fall within the indicated 95% confidence interval for the uppermost segment of the curve. Assuming the midpoint of the two ranges represents the best estimate of age, the peat was deposited at about AD 470, or about 1500 YBP.…”

Section: Age Of the Bermmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Possible Tsunami Deposits on the Caribbean Coast of the Yucatán Peninsula

Shaw

Benson

2015

Journal of Coastal Research

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Heightened hurricane surge risk in northwest Florida revealed from climatological‐hydrodynamic modeling and paleorecord reconstruction

et al. 2014

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Historical tropical cyclone (TC) and storm surge records are often too limited to quantify the risk to local populations. Paleohurricane sediment records uncover long‐term TC activity, but interpreting these records can be difficult and can introduce significant uncertainties. Here we compare and combine climatological‐hydrodynamic modeling (including a method to account for storm size uncertainty), historical observations, and paleohurricane records to investigate local surge risk, using Apalachee Bay in northwest Florida as an example. The modeling reveals relatively high risk, with 100 year, 500 year, and “worst case” surges estimated to be about 6.3 m, 8.3 m, and 11.3 m, respectively, at Bald Point (a paleorecord site) and about 7.4 m, 9.7 m, and 13.3 m, respectively, at St. Marks (the head of the Bay), supporting the inference from paleorecords that Apalachee Bay has frequently suffered severe inundation for thousands of years. Both the synthetic database and paleorecords contain a much higher frequency of extreme events than the historical record; the mean return period of surges greater than 5 m is about 40 years based on synthetic modeling and paleoreconstruction, whereas it is about 400 years based on historical storm analysis. Apalachee Bay surge risk is determined by storms of broad characteristics, varies spatially over the area, and is affected by coastally trapped Kelvin waves, all of which are important features to consider when accessing the risk and interpreting paleohurricane records. In particular, neglecting size uncertainty may induce great underestimation in surge risk, as the size distribution is positively skewed. While the most extreme surges were generated by the uppermost storm intensities, medium intensity storms (categories 1–3) can produce large to extreme surges, due to their larger inner core sizes. For Apalachee Bay, the storms that induced localized barrier breaching and limited sediment transport (overwash regime; surge between 3 and 5 m) are most likely to be category 2 or 3 storms, and the storms that inundated the entire barrier and deposited significantly more coarse materials (inundation regime; surge > 5 m) are most likely to be category 3 or 4 storms.

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A new composite Holocene sea-level curve for the northern Gulf of Mexico

Cited by 51 publications

References 32 publications

The contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment to projections of sea‐level change along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of North America

The contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment to projections of sea‐level change along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of North America

Possible Tsunami Deposits on the Caribbean Coast of the Yucatán Peninsula

Heightened hurricane surge risk in northwest Florida revealed from climatological‐hydrodynamic modeling and paleorecord reconstruction

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