A method for estimating casualties due to the tsunami inundation flow

Koshimura, Shunichi; Katada, Toshitaka; Mofjeld, Harold O.; Kawata, Yoshimasa

doi:10.1007/s11069-006-0027-5

Cited by 46 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 7 publications

(10 reference statements)

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“…Furthermore the extent of dike and sea wall breaching is included in the mortality estimation. Sugimoto et al (2003) and Koshimura et al (2006) propose methods that combine a numerical simulation of the inundation flow due to tsunami and an analysis of the evacuation process. Both methods use criteria for human instability in flowing water (see Sect.…”

Section: Tsunamismentioning

confidence: 99%

Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method

2008

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This article deals with methods for the estimation of loss of life due to flooding. These methods can be used to assess the flood risks and to identify mitigation strategies. The first part of this article contains a comprehensive review of existing literature. Methods have been developed for different types of floods in different regions. In general these methods relate the loss of life in the flooded area to the flood characteristics and the possibilities for evacuation and shelter. An evaluation showed that many of the existing methods do not take into account all of the most relevant determinants of loss of life and that they are often to a limited extent based on empirical data of historical flood events. In the second part of the article, a new method is proposed for the estimation of loss of life caused by the flooding of low-lying areas protected by flood defences. An estimate of the loss of life due to a flood event can be given based on: (1) information regarding the flood characteristics, (2) an analysis of the exposed population and evacuation, and (3) an estimate of the mortality amongst the exposed population. By analysing empirical information from historical floods, new mortality functions have been developed. These relate the mortality amongst the exposed population to the flood characteristics. Comparison of the outcomes of the proposed method with information from historical flood events shows that it gives an accurate approximation of the number of observed fatalities during these events. The method is applied to assess the consequences for a largescale flooding of the area of South Holland, in the Netherlands. It is estimated that the analysed coastal flood scenario can lead to approximately 3,200 fatalities in this area.

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Section: Tsunamismentioning

confidence: 99%

Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method

2008

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“…The main goal of community evacuation plans is to complete the Correspondence to: A. Muhari (aam@tsunami2.civil.tohoku.ac.jp) evacuation before a tsunami comes (Koshimura et al, 2006). However, learning from the Japan experiences, even in cases when tsunami warning was well designed and quantitative information about tsunami arrival time and wave height was available, the activities necessary to mitigate damages were still difficult to be well implemented (Imamura, 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Examination of three practical run-up models for assessing tsunami impact on highly populated areas

Muhari

Imamura

Koshimura

et al. 2011

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This paper describes the examination of three practical tsunami run-up models that can be used to assess the tsunami impact on human beings in densely populated areas. The first of the examined models applies a uniform bottom roughness coefficient throughout the study area. The second uses a very detailed topographic data set that includes the building height information integrated on a Digital Elevation Model (DEM); and the third model utilizes different bottom roughness coefficients, depending on the type of land use and on the percentage of building occupancy on each grid cell. These models were compared with each other by taking the one with the most detailed topographic data (which is the second) as reference. The analysis was performed with the aim of identifying how specific features of high resolution topographic data can influence the tsunami run-up characteristics. Further, we promote a method to be used when very detailed topographic data is unavailable and discuss the related limitations. To this purpose we demonstrate that the effect of buildings on the tsunami flow can be well modeled by using an equivalent roughness coefficient if the topographic data has no information of building height. The results from the models have been utilized to quantify the tsunami impact by using the tsunami casualty algorithm. The models have been applied in Padang city, Indonesia, which is one of the areas with the highest potential of tsunami risk in the world.

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“…and the vulnerability conditions that may exacerbate the tsunami impacts (UNDP, 2011;UNU-EHS, 2009;Villagrán de León, 2008;González-Riancho et al, 2014;Sugimoto et al, 2003;Sato et al, 2003;Koshimura et al, 2006;Jonkman et al, 2008;Strunz et al, 2011;Post et al, 2009;Dwyer et al, 2004;Tinti et al, 2011;Dall'Osso et al, 2009;Cruz et al, 2011;Grezio et al, 2012;Koeri, 2009;Eckert et al, 2012;etc. ).…”

Section: P González-riancho Et Al: the Selection Of Tsunami Human Vmentioning

confidence: 99%

A contribution to the selection of tsunami human vulnerability indicators: conclusions from tsunami impacts in Sri Lanka and Thailand (2004), Samoa (2009), Chile (2010) and Japan (2011)

González-Riancho

Aliaga

Hettiarachchi

et al. 2015

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. After several tsunami events with disastrous consequences around the world, coastal countries have realized the need to be prepared to minimize human mortality and damage to coastal infrastructures, livelihoods and resources. The international scientific community is striving to develop and validate methodologies for tsunami hazard and vulnerability and risk assessments. The vulnerability of coastal communities is usually assessed through the definition of sets of indicators based on previous literature and/or post-tsunami reports, as well as on the available data for the study site. The aim of this work is to validate, in light of past tsunami events, the indicators currently proposed by the scientific community to measure human vulnerability, to improve their definition and selection as well as to analyse their validity for different country development profiles. The events analysed are the 2011 Great Tohoku tsunami, the 2010 Chilean tsunami, the 2009 Samoan tsunami and the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The results obtained highlight the need for considering both permanent and temporal human exposure, the former requiring some hazard numerical modelling, while the latter is related to site-specific livelihoods, cultural traditions and gender roles. The most vulnerable age groups are the elderly and children, the former having much higher mortality rates. Female mortality is not always higher than male mortality and not always related to dependency issues. Higher numbers of disabled people do not always translate into higher numbers of victims. Besides, it is clear that mortality is not only related to the characteristics of the population but also of the buildings. A high correlation has been found between the affected buildings and the number of victims, being very high for completely damaged buildings. Distance to the sea, building materials and expected water depths are important determining factors regarding the type of damage to buildings.

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A method for estimating casualties due to the tsunami inundation flow

Cited by 46 publications

References 7 publications

Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method

Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method

Examination of three practical run-up models for assessing tsunami impact on highly populated areas

A contribution to the selection of tsunami human vulnerability indicators: conclusions from tsunami impacts in Sri Lanka and Thailand (2004), Samoa (2009), Chile (2010) and Japan (2011)

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