Abstract. El Salvador is the smallest and most densely populated country in Central America; its coast has an approximate length of 320 km, 29 municipalities and more than 700 000 inhabitants. In El Salvador there were 15 recorded tsunamis between 1859 and 2012, 3 of them causing damages and resulting in hundreds of victims. Hazard assessment is commonly based on propagation numerical models for earthquake-generated tsunamis and can be approached through both probabilistic and deterministic methods. A deterministic approximation has been applied in this study as it provides essential information for coastal planning and management. The objective of the research was twofold: on the one hand the characterization of the threat over the entire coast of El Salvador, and on the other the computation of flooding maps for the three main localities of the Salvadorian coast. For the latter we developed high-resolution flooding models. For the former, due to the extension of the coastal area, we computed maximum elevation maps, and from the elevation in the near shore we computed an estimation of the run-up and the flooded area using empirical relations. We have considered local sources located in the Middle America Trench, characterized seismotectonically, and distant sources in the rest of Pacific Basin, using historical and recent earthquakes and tsunamis. We used a hybrid finite differencesfinite volumes numerical model in this work, based on the linear and non-linear shallow water equations, to simulate a total of 24 earthquake-generated tsunami scenarios. Our results show that at the western Salvadorian coast, run-up values higher than 5 m are common, while in the eastern area, approximately from La Libertad to the Gulf of Fonseca, the run-up values are lower. The more exposed areas to flooding are the lowlands in the Lempa River delta and the Barra de Santiago Western Plains. The results of the empirical approximation used for the whole country are similar to the results obtained with the high-resolution numerical modelling, being a good and fast approximation to obtain preliminary tsunami hazard estimations. In Acajutla and La Libertad, both important tourism centres being actively developed, flooding depths between 2 and 4 m are frequent, accompanied with high and very high person instability hazard. Inside the Gulf of Fonseca the impact of the waves is almost negligible.
Abstract. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow for the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas. This paper presents a tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment for the case study of El Salvador, the applied methodology dealing with the complexity and variability of coastal zones by means of (i) an integral approach to cover the entire risk-related process from the hazard, vulnerability and risk assessments to the final risk management; (ii) an integrated approach to combine and aggregate the information stemming from the different dimensions of coupled human and natural systems; and (iii) a dynamic and scale-dependent approach to integrate the spatiotemporal variability considerations. This work also aims at establishing a clear connection to translate the vulnerability and risk assessment results into adequate target-oriented risk reduction measures, trying to bridge the gap between science and management for the tsunami hazard. The approach is applicable to other types of hazards, having been successfully applied to climate-change-related flooding hazard.
Abstract. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas. This paper presents an integral framework for the formulation of tsunami evacuation plans based on tsunami vulnerability assessment and evacuation modelling. This framework considers (i) the hazard aspects (tsunami flooding characteristics and arrival time), (ii) the characteristics of the exposed area (people, shelters and road network), (iii) the current tsunami warning procedures and timing, (iv) the time needed to evacuate the population, and (v) the identification of measures to improve the evacuation process. The proposed methodological framework aims to bridge between risk assessment and risk management in terms of tsunami evacuation, as it allows for an estimation of the degree of evacuation success of specific management options, as well as for the classification and prioritization of the gathered information, in order to formulate an optimal evacuation plan. The framework has been applied to the El Salvador case study, demonstrating its applicability to sitespecific response times and population characteristics.
a b s t r a c tResilience is defined as the capacity of a community to organise itself before, during and after a dangerous/ hazardous event in order to minimise the impacts. A conceptual framework is proposed to assess the resilience of a community by understanding and integrating the institutional, legal and social capacities to cope and recover from a natural hazardous event in order to minimize the impacts in the short-term and to adapt to the risk in the long-term. A survey-based method and a specific resilience questionnaire is proposed to explore the perception of stakeholders regarding the risk and emergency management processes as well as psychological and social factors conditioning individual and community preparedness. The method is applied in a pilot area (the Dithmarschen district in the German North Sea Coast) for its validation before applying it to the entire Wadden Sea region, the pilot results being presented in this work. Although some questions may need some type of adaptation to fit adequately to other study sites, the conceptual and methodological framework could be applied worldwide. The study area and its population are characterized by their continuous interaction with the ocean, with the continuous transformation and reclamation of land for agricultural and other purposes, the constant reshaping of the coastline and frequent coastal inundation by storm surge flooding. The assessment allows identifying the main characteristics of the study area in terms of stakeholders' risk perception, intention to prepare, individual and societal behavioural patterns, as well as their opinion regarding authorities' decision-making on emergency and risk management. It also addresses potential improvement in emergency and risk management in terms of multi-sector partnerships and additional adaptation measures for the area. The deficiencies and incoherencies between society's and administration's answers detected in the analysis point towards the challenges to deal with, in order to foster an adequate community preparedness and adaptation to storm surge risk. Some of the results that the proposed method permitted to obtain in the study area show (i) the need for a better information strategy to enhance society's awareness and preparedness; (ii) the respondents' current proactive behaviour and preference on participatory risk management options, despite fully participatory schemes are not yet set by the authorities; (iii) the need for awareness campaigns regarding the relevance and benefits of the integrated approach in potential partnerships, and (iv) the need for tailored and site-specific adaptation instruments and measures due to the current society's disagreement with some of the options currently provided. The results are useful to improve risk reduction initiatives by means of including society's opinions from the beginning of the management process.
Abstract. Oman is located in an area of high seismicity, facing the Makran Subduction Zone, which is the major source of earthquakes in the eastern border of the Arabian plate. These earthquakes, as evidenced by several past events, may trigger a tsunami event. The aim of this work is to minimize the consequences that tsunami events may cause in coastal communities by integrating tsunami risk assessment and risk reduction measures as part of the risk-management preparedness strategy. An integrated risk assessment approach and the analysis of site-specific conditions permitted to propose target-oriented risk reduction measures. The process included a participatory approach, involving a panel of local stakeholders and international experts. One of the main concerns of this work was to obtain a useful outcome for the actual improvement of tsunami risk management in Oman. This goal was achieved through the development of comprehensive and functional management tools such as the Tsunami Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk Atlas and the Risk Reduction Measures Handbook, which will help to design and plan a roadmap towards risk reduction. The integrated tsunami risk assessment performed showed that the northern area of Oman would be the most affected, considering both the hazard and vulnerability components. This area also concentrates nearly 50 % of the hot spots identified throughout the country, 70 % of them are located in areas with a very high risk class, in which risk reduction measures were selected and prioritized.
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