A High-Resolution Modeling Strategy to Assess Impacts of Climate Change for Mesoamerica and the Caribbean

Oglesby, Robert J.; Rowe, Clinton M.; Grunwaldt, Alfred; Ferreira, I. C. L.; Ruiz, Franklyn; Campbell, Jayaka D.; Alvarado, Luis; Argenal, Francisco; Olmedo, Berta A.; Castillo, Alejandro; Lopez, Pilar; Matos, Edwards; Nava, Yosef; García‐Pando, Carlos Pérez; Pérez, Joel

doi:10.4236/ajcc.2016.52019

Cited by 12 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 20 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…[105]. In particular, [98] showed that for Colombia, simulations at 12 km might be suitable to study potential changes in precipitation with climate change by obtaining similar results with simulations at higher resolution (4km) but different from those of coarser resolutions (36km). However, models with parameterized cumulus convection usually have problems at simulating the diurnal cycle, frequency (higher than in observations), and intensity (lower than in observations) of precipitation [110][111][112].…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 85%

Colombian climatology in CMIP5/CMIP6 models: Persistent biases and improvements

Arias

Ortega

Villegas

et al. 2021

Rev.Fac.Ing.Univ.Antioquia

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Northern South America is among the regions with the highest vulnerability to climate change. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are among the different tools considered to analyze the impacts of climate change. In particular, GCMs have been proved to provide useful information, although they exhibit systematic biases and fail in reproducing regional climate, particularly in terrains with complex topography. This work evaluates the performance of GCMs included in the fifth and sixth phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), representing the annual cycle of precipitation and air surface temperature in Colombia. To evaluate this, we consider different observational and reanalysis datasets, including in situ gauges from the Colombian Meteorological Institute. Our results indicate that although the most recent generation of GCMs (CMIP6) show improvements with respect to the previous generation (CMIP5), they still have systematic biases in representing the Intertropical Convergence Zone and elevation-dependent processes, which highly determine intra-annual precipitation and air surface temperature in Colombia. In addition, CMIP6 models have larger biases in temperature over the Andes than CMIP5. We also analyze climate projections by the end of the 21st century according to the CMIP5/CMIP6 simulations under the highest greenhouse gases emission scenarios. Models show projections toward warmer air surface temperatures and mixed changes of precipitation, with decreases of precipitation over the Orinoco and Colombian Amazon in September-November and increases over the eastern equatorial Pacific during the entire year.

show abstract

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 85%

Colombian climatology in CMIP5/CMIP6 models: Persistent biases and improvements

Arias

Ortega

Villegas

et al. 2021

Rev.Fac.Ing.Univ.Antioquia

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The north-south projected changes in precipitation are in agreement with the previous projections of a decrease in future precipitation over the southern subregions, including most Caribbean countries, using the SRES climate scenario A2 (Karmalkar et al 2011), A2 and B2 (Campbell et al 2010) and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Maloney et al 2014;Torres-Alavez et al 2014;Colorado-Ruiz et al, 2018). However, the complexity of the Caribbean subregion requires further investigation, as previous studies suggest that there are marked differences in the precipitation trends in the present and future periods between northwestern and southeastern parts (Imbach et al 2018;Taylor et al 2018;Oglesby et al 2016).…”

Section: Future Changes In Annual Mean Temperature and Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Over the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean in CMIP6 GCMs

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset is used to examine projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the United States (U.S.), Central America and the Caribbean. The changes are computed using an ensemble of 31 models for three future time slices (2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 ensemble reproduces the observed annual cycle and distribution of mean annual temperature and precipitation with biases between − 0.93 and 1.27 °C and − 37.90 to 58.45%, respectively, for most of the region. However, modeled precipitation is too large over the western and Midwestern U.S. during winter and spring and over the North American monsoon region in summer, while too small over southern Central America. Temperature is projected to increase over the entire domain under all three SSPs, by as much as 6 °C under SSP5-8.5, and with more pronounced increases in the northern latitudes over the regions that receive snow in the present climate. Annual precipitation projections for the end of the twenty-first century have more uncertainty, as expected, and exhibit a meridional dipole-like pattern, with precipitation increasing by 10–30% over much of the U.S. and decreasing by 10–40% over Central America and the Caribbean, especially over the monsoon region. Seasonally, precipitation over the eastern and central subregions is projected to increase during winter and spring and decrease during summer and autumn. Over the monsoon region and Central America, precipitation is projected to decrease in all seasons except autumn. The analysis was repeated on a subset of 9 models with the best performance in the reference period; however, no significant difference was found, suggesting that model bias is not strongly influencing the projections.

show abstract

“…En este sentido, la presente investigación analiza la volatilidad de la precipitación y la temperatura en las ciudades mesoamericanas generadas por el cambio climático, utilizando como línea base la dinámica de las dos variables climáticas observadas mes a mes; la primera abarca de 1971 a 1980 y la segunda de segunda de 2001 a 2010 (Oglesby et al, 2016). Las ciudades mesoamericanas utilizadas en el análisis incluyen a incluyen a las capitales de los Estados de México (Campeche, Chiapas, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Puebla, Quintana Roo, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, Veracruz y Yucatán), así como las ciudades capitales de Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras y Belice.…”

Section: Unan-leónunclassified

Midiendo la exposición del cambio climático en las ciudades mesoamericanas

Villarroel

Labra

García

et al. 2020

(Rev. iberoam. bioecon. cambio clim.)

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

La presente investigación analiza la volatilidad de la precipitación y la temperatura en las ciudades mesoamericanas generadas por el cambio climático, utilizando como línea base la dinámica de las dos variables climáticas observadas mes a mes; entre 1971 a 1980 y 2001 a 2010 comparándolas con escenarios futuros de clima para los años 2061 a 2070. Las ciudades mesoamericanas utilizadas en el análisis que incluyen a las ciudades capitales de los estados del sudeste mexicano, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras y Belice. Medir la volatilidad de variables climáticas nos permite calificar si la distribución de lluvias y temperatura está por encima o por debajo de los rangos medios de la distribución histórica de estas variables. Entender la volatilidad climática, permite vislumbra una serie de escenarios de carácter técnico y político, y generar acciones concretas ante el cambio en las dinámicas climáticas de largo plazo y con ello anticiparse a los efectos de los eventos climáticos extremos presentes en una región. El método faculta la toma de decisiones en política pública, en particular en las áreas urbanas donde la tendencia a climas secos y cálidos genera una serie de consecuencias. Algunas consecuencias son i) la necesidad de diversificar las fuentes de agua potable y la generación hidroeléctrica, ii) los efectos de las rachas de calor en la calidad de vida de la población, iii) la calidad de sueño y productividad y en última instancia iv) el consumo de niveles de energía destinados a aire acondicionado o refrigeración superiores a los niveles actuales.

show abstract

A High-Resolution Modeling Strategy to Assess Impacts of Climate Change for Mesoamerica and the Caribbean

Cited by 12 publications

References 20 publications

Colombian climatology in CMIP5/CMIP6 models: Persistent biases and improvements

Colombian climatology in CMIP5/CMIP6 models: Persistent biases and improvements

Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Over the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean in CMIP6 GCMs

Midiendo la exposición del cambio climático en las ciudades mesoamericanas

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About